IT seems that over the last five or six tournaments past form has gone out the window with rookies, players way down the rankings and first time winners all doing the business. Will this run continue this week – I’m not so sure.
What with most of the top guys playing this I can’t see the winner coming from way down the field.
As the Golf Club of Houston is set up as a build-up to the Masters several of the top guys are here and it could be a pointer to the winner of the first Major. Tiger Woods of course has withdrawn injured from the Augusta event and it's good to see McBookie refunding outright bets – let's hope other firms do likewise.
My old friend Dustin Johnston is back after his tied fourth finish at the Doral a couple of weeks ago. He still leads the Tour in a number of stats and is in the top 10 for a shedload of others. In six events this season he’s been first once, two seconds and two top-five finishes, so the man is hot.
Although Dustin has a great chance next week and the winner of the Masters doesn’t normally win the week before but I think this could be the year.
Sergio Garcia is another one who is back after a lay-off. With five top-20s in five starts on the PGA Tour and one win and three top-five finishes from four starts on the European he’s having a great season.
The Houston course last year was the 13th most challenging in scrambling (55 per cent) but Sergio’s scrambling statistic is over 65 per cent so if he can keep that up he is in with a chance.
With two second places, and a further three top-five finishes, Canadian Graham DeLaet is one of the “newbies” on the PGA Tour doing well this year. His scrambling is around 55 er cent but with GIR at 72 per cent (4th) looks steady enough for a high finish as he did here in 2013 when he was T3rd.
Keegan Bradley had not a bad start to the season with five top-20 finishes from five starts. Then he missed the cut in Phoenix and has laboured a bit. At the Arnold Palmer Invitational two weeks ago be got right back in it, finishing second.
His stats aren’t great but he is a player who will dig in when the going gets tough. His GIR and scrambling stats are both around 65 per cent and driving accuracy is 59 per cent.
My Bunker’s Bet last week didn’t make the cut but I’m hoping for better here. Twenty-nine-year-old Jason Kokrak fits the bill. He finished fourth in the Arnold Palmer a couple of weeks ago and he’s come to my notice over the last few tournaments. His GIR is over 66 per cent and scrambling over 60 per cent but still fancy a wee flutter on him.
There’s a chance of severe weather on the Thursday and the wind will blow so if our guys survive that they will certainly have a chance.
20pt staking plan
Dustin Johnston (4pts ew) 14-1 Betfred
Sergio Garcia (2pts ew) 25-1 Betfred
Keegan Bradley (1.5pts ew) 25-1 Betfred
Graham DeLaet (1.5pts ew) 35-1 unibet
Bunkers Bet
Jason Kokrak (1pt ew) 55-1 McBookie
Ace Venturer
Resident football tipster at Scotland's most read newspaper, the Daily Record, for over 20 years and proud host of one the best betting communities on the web with daily betting tips.
Shell open…summerhays kokrak chappell delaet
spain… lewis delmoral aguilar hahn
SA…fishr jnr to win, blaauw bekker ew
I’m with you on the stick a pin in to find a winner for many of the last month or so. Personally, Jordan Spieth blew it in first round, but came back strong.
I’m sticking with him this week at 25/1, the others…
Bradley 25/1
Westwood 66/1
Tringale 100/1
JB Holmes 110/1
Let’s hope form plays a part this week!
Agree with Bradley, DeLaet & Kokrak. Also on Charley Hoffman.
For long shots Stuart Appleby’s worth a shot at 200/1 seeing as the Aussies are doing so well & he’s won once & been runner up twice before in the tournament.
Aaron Baddeley’s also being tipped at 125/1 as it’s a course that suits his game if he can get his act together.
Also going to take Baddeley & Appleby to finish in the Top 20 at 11/2 & 17/2 resepectively.
Shell Houston Open
J.SPIETH 25/1
M.KUCHAR 25/1
R.GARRIGUS 80/1
Kraft Nabisco Championships
A.MUNOZ 25/1
P.CREAMER 28/1
5 x £2 e.w
I don’t do golf Paul, however been sent these do u have any thoughts on their credentials buddie?
Top Rated Selection – Dustin Johnson @ 14/1 (paddypower) – Each Way- 1/4 odds, 6 places
2nd Rated Selection – Phill Mickleson @ 25/1 (paddypower) – Each Way
3rd Rated Selection – Graeme Delaet @ 33/1 (paddypower) – Each Way
This Weeks Longshot – Charles Howell III @ 66/1 (paddypower) – Each Way – 1/4 odds, 6 places
I think delaat will go well anyway,but for me HUNTER MAHAN @30/1,two top tens and a win here already means he should be thereabouts.
KOKRAK will win soon ,so i will be on him anyway.
A few other noteables for me.
LOUIS OOSTHUIZEN @60/1 a top five ,top ten and top twenty in last few years.
CHARLES HOWELL @66/1 .playing decent with good course form.
lastly two outsiders ,but one with great form here,
BRIAN DAVIS @125/1 6TH here last year,and 4TH IN 2012.
GEOFF OGIVLY @100/1 2ND IN 2009 ,and good form after that ,he’s playing better these days and worth a chance.
HUNTER MAHAN @30/1
LOUIS OOSTHUIZEN @60/1
CHARLES HOWELL @66/1
JASON KOKRAK @45/1
BRIAN DAVIS@125/1
GEOFF OGIVLY @100/1.
I love a Wednesday studying golf
Robert garrigus
Espen kofstad
Charley hull
70p ew patent on above returns the Max payout of £500,000
They are all well overdue a win so hoping at least places.
Done dustin m8 what do you make of hoffmans chances at 66/1
NH – Lowry, Warren, Espana and Oriol
Houston – Mahan, Kokrak, Ogilvy and Pettersson