A STUPID ruling cost Rory McIlroy the win at the Abu Dhabi Championship last week and prevented me off to a great start to the season.
However, we got a good place with Joost Luiten who didn’t seem to do much wrong while finishing sixth.
This week I can’t see passed Sergio Garcia in the Qatar Masters (starts Wednesday, 3.35am). He had a bad first round in Abu Dhabi due to a shoulder injury picked up in the pro-am then was 10 under for the next three rounds. Over the past few months he’s really been looking like his old self and is ready to win again. This could be the week.
Another man looking good at the moment is Thomas Bjorn who has had two top-10 finishes and a win in his last three tournaments. He’s leading the Race to Dubai so seems to be the man in form. Nothing seems to phase the big Dane as he strolls around the course and he’s worth an each-way chance.
In the US the Farmers Insurance Open, played over the two Torrey Pines courses starting on Thursday, there is a strong field led by Tiger Woods (seven wins) and Phil Mickelson.
Can Lefty follow up on his second in Abu Dhabi and add to his three wins in this tournament? Yes he can. He looked good last week although it took him a couple of rounds to get rid of the rustiness but when he got back in the groove he was superb with a 63 in the third round.
Jimmy Walker seems a good bet as he has already won twice this season and finished eighth in 2012 and tied fourth last year at Torrey Pines. In the Sony Open in Hawaii two weeks ago he had a flawless seven under fourth round to win the tournament with an average driving distance well over 300 yards over the four rounds so the Torrey Pines North course should suit him.
Jordan Spieth is another I fancy this week. He was second in Kapalua three weeks ago so has had a good start to the season. Last year at Torrey Pines he missed the cut but that was at the start of the 20-year-old’s rookie year. Now with a PGA Tour win and four second places and over $4 million in winnings he looks quite a player.
Recommended Bets (15pts staking plan)
Sergio Garcia 3pts ew (8-1, Betfred, Ladbrokes)
Thomas Bjorn 1pt ew (20-1, William Hill, Coral)
Phil Mickelson 2pts ew (12-1, Ladbrokes)
Jimmy Walker 1.5pts ew (35-1, Betfred)
Jordan Spieth 1.5pts ew (40-1, Coral)
Ace Venturer
Resident football tipster at Scotland's most read newspaper, the Daily Record, for over 20 years and proud host of one the best betting communities on the web with daily betting tips.
Again I’m going with David Howell ew. He was 5th 3 years ago and at big prices he will get a win soon.
Sergio garcia and phil mickelson double 81/1@skybet
I don’t remember any high street bookmaker paying first 6 on luiten ? All where 1/4 odds first 5
Derek, where does it use the phrase “high street bookmaker”. Any bets mentioned will have been done online where in general you get better offers, more places.
Paddy Power, in Ireland, pays 6 places. PGA and European. I just walk in, make free cup of coffee, walk up to counter with dockets and dosh and Lefty’s yer uncle. Very nice folks down at the bookies. Free Coffee and Free Money (sometimes).
paddy, got to say I like the Paddy shops – really smart and big and airy. Unfortunately there’s not one within walking distance of me but I try to get in now and again.
David Howell has never been a decent golf bet from a win point of view. , the best you’ll get of him is a place I’ve lost count the amount of times he has collapsed in final rounds .
Even online its very rare to get first 6 , usually only see this in majors . I can’t remember seeing anyone paying 6 places in Abu dhabi . Maybe 888 sport did I can’t remember seeing that .
Derek, I’ll try to find out who was doing it.
Steve Palmer in the Racing Post gives last weeks result down to 6th place which means it was being quoted somewhere.
Hi Golf Time
sorry all this is the right thread
right golf tips Qatar finally sorted out the laptop
fancy 6 could not choose so will be ew bar Sergio win only
Shane Lowry 100-1
good all round game great ball striker and excellent wind player he did exceptionally well at the irsh open
David Howell 150/1
4/5 top 10s here from 2002-2008 and showing some of that form of old lately. Simply looks too big a price in the relative field given course form.
Sergio Garcia 8-1. Win only
Hampered by a shoulder injury in the first round, the Spaniard followed up with rounds of 68-70-68 and eventually finished T19. , this is another course where he enjoys a good record. In the last seven years, he has finished T19-T7-T7-T24-T9-T5-T2.
Hennie otto 125-1
in such a rich vein of form there
currently 33rd for driving distance, 17th for driving accuracy, 23rd for GIR and 12th for putts T19 in Abu Dhabi, T24 at the Alfred Dunhill and T2 at the South African Open There is no reason he cannot carry that on if your all round game is that good, then tee to green will be of no problem and at seems to be a tipster pick
Paul Waring 150/1.
five top-25 finishes in his last eight starts
slow start in Abu Dhabi then shooting a f67 on the last day
Rafa Cabrera-Bello 35-1
At the beginning of last year he had 6 top 23s. In 2012 he started the year making 12 cuts in a row, including 3 top 10s and a win at the Omega Dubai Desert Classic
Andy Sullivan 150/1
He recorded 4 top 12s in his first 7 starts last season and one of those was a T9 here. a respectable T19 last week, he could be a very interesting outsider.
And again in my water feeling
avaros queries and S gallacher are also my fancys
good luck all
paddy power paid top 6
frenaldo, David C, thanks – it pays to shop around. On the Majors last year I saw offers for 7, 8 places.
Paddy Power had 6 places for Abu Dhabi last week.
Going to have a go on the golf for the first time, appreciate the tips.
Farmers short list is to long as I have reasons for at least 20
Tiger to win but odds to short so lets look at ew
my top 6
Hunter Mahan 40-1
In the last six renewals of the event, he has finished T29-T11-T27-T6-T6-T15.
Jason Day 33-1
The 26-year-old performs best on a big stage Day also thrives on the big occasion, he recorded three top-10 finishes in the majors last year and in a high quality tournament,He finished off 2013 in great fashion recording T25, T13, T4 and T14 in the Fed-Ex Play Off events. And then went on to win the World Cup of Golf alongside Adam Scott
now for my longshots
Ryo Ishikawa (150/1
After a really solid start to his career which included 10 victories on the Japan Golf Tour, Ishikawa found the going tough on the PGA Tour, recording only 1 top 10 in 2013 and missing 10 cuts.
he has finished T2 at the Shriners Hospital Open, T5 at the World Cup of Golf and then T25 last week. 13th place at Torrey Pines in 2012 . 9th driving distance, 4th GIR and 5th proximity to the hole.
Luke Guthrie (100/1
His game could suit this course, being relatively long and accurate off the tee. T21 here last year He has top 5 at the Shriners Hospital Open.
Kyle Stanley 225/1
recorded two 3rds one at the memorial tournament
. smacking the ball averaging 306 yards off the tee and ranking 6th in distance for 2014. on his day has the game for Torrey Pines. His 2nd place in 2012 certainly proves this
Brad Fritsch at 400/1.
The big hitting Canadian T9 at Torrey Pines last year and it could have been even better, as he was second going into the final round.
The 36-year-old wasn’t able to build on that result a back injury forced him out of two tournaments.
Humana Challenge last week hitting 85% of fairways on .
Torrey Pines you need to drive the ball long and straight which he has proven
good luck all
still think tiger will win 5/2 way to short
my doubles
are Sergio Garcia and hunter Mahan 368-1
and Hennie otto 125-1 and Kyle Stanley 225-1 28125-1
Ok lads , i think the reason I never took it was because they where only giving you 25s , you could have got 33/1 first 5 in other bookies , I went for the bigger price rather than the extra place .
paddy power paid top 6
i think but only 5 on farmers
I had larrazabal at 80s last week w/o big 3 last week with skybet…this week I think cabrera bello and dufner will go well in Qatar…and in farmers I think leishman and walker are good ew value..
Claimed a 2nd last week in Ryan Palmer, was never in running to win as Reed started the final day with a 7 shot lead
Qatar – P.Hanson, S.Gallacher, M.Siem + D.Willett
USA – D.A. Points, H.Mahan, J.Day + B. De Jonge
Just a comment your opening gambit Mr Fixit, the two shot penalty didn’t cost Mcilroy the tournament. We have no idea how the tournament would have panned out. Additionally, can we not expect one of the highest paid sportsmen in the world to know the “stupid” rules that apply to his day job? In any other walk of life if you break the rules you get punished, golf is no different. All pro golfers are openly invited to numerous Rules meetings etc but the majoriy never attend.
Good luck everyone with your bets, Rickie Fowler is a must back for me this week, he is off the charts with my key stats for Torrey Pines and at 40s-50s is finally a good price again hor him. His swing changes with Butch Harmon seem to be going will and I expect him to contend.
Steven, they’re not my tips – check the credit.
Paddy power were paying out on 6 places at 1/4 odds in Abu Dhabi.
Glad someone else mentioned Howell. Means I’m not on my own.
Paul, what bookies your doubles with?
Qatar Masters
No.1 SERGIO
Fourth best last week over final 3 rounds. Very well suited to the course (7,7,24,9,5,2). Last year in Qatar he was 2nd for driving distance, 3rd for GIR, and 9th for putts per round. Good course and current form – confident No. 1 pick for me
No.2 Jason Dufner
Debut here last year when he finished T9th. Has played well this year in Hawaii averaging 68.6 per round. Recovered from media hype after USPGA win last year and his accuracy should give him plenty of birdie chances on this course
No.3 Peter Hanson
Seems to be over his neck problems with form figures of 8/10/8 in his last 3 Euro events. Plenty of Doha experience and was tied second here 3 years ago when the event was reduced to 54 holes. Tenth last week and desperate to retain Ryder Cup place, I expect him to go close this week.
No. 4 George Coetzee
Putted superbly last week when finishing T4th. Finished last year with a 65 to finish one off the pace. No wins on The European Tour as yet but it will come soon and this is a great opportunity for The South African
Good shout last week Paul with Larrazabal, trust you done the single as well?
Daft double this week is
Gonzales at 110/1 and
Mahan at 40/1
Also
Spieth at 40/1 and
Uihlein at 80/1
Good luck all
Cheers for the heads up on 6 places with paddy power, i actually followed j luiten tip off of sportinglife, i didnt know yous did golf tips here! :) .. Just dug my docket out of my bin, 5ew 25/1.. €35 back thanks for mentioning it!
Dave787, nice on.
Mr Fixit, I think you should run a ‘miserable b*stard of the week’ completion alongside your other contests. Site users can nominate and if it matches your selection you get a free bet.
Tom T, there would be too many to choose from!
Qatar Masters
T.BJORN
M.A.JIMINEZ
K.APHIBARNRAT
FARMERS
J.SPLEITH
M.LAIRD
R.KNOX
R.Knox is 200/1 at Paddy Power,who are 1/4 odds first 6,the boy from Inverness will win sooner or later.
Any thoughts on top 20 bets?
Sergio Garcia is 4/11 to finish in top 20. @ bet victor and other sites. If we pick top 4 or 5 players to finish in top 20, wouldn’t all these bets win or am I missing something here?
SK2, not sure what you mean. Top 4 or 5 are not guaranteed to finish top 20. Just takes a bad week or a bad round and they could be down the field or miss the cut.
Farmers Insurance Bets
Top 20 Finish Brent Snedeker 10/11
Ricky Fowler 15/8
Top 10 Finish Brent Snedeker 2/1
Ricky Fowler 9/2
Brent Snedeker has finished no lower than 9t in the last 4 attempts including a win and 2 runners up so that seems a sound reason to have a nibble on him at the above prices or even e/w @ 22/1 is quite sound.
Ricky Fowler has a nice barnet and on that alone deserves a top 10 finish but maybe the purists out there would prefer another reason to back Fowler so here goes last year he shot a 77 1st round and still managed a top 10 finish.
Another 2 to consider Bill Hass @ 29/1 ew or 5/2 top 10 and 11/10 top 20 finish. and Tiger Woods of course at a paltry 5/2 outright
Good start in Qatar – waiting Coetzee 1st round leader (£15 @ 28/1) with Hills
Congrats Paul on tipping Larrazabal last week. I lost my 12 points on Abu Dhabi but won 17.5 points on Humana Challenge. I’m only betting on Farmers (PGA) this week. Tips as follows:
P.Mickelson 2pts e/w 10/1
B.Haas 1.5pts e/w 25/1
B.Watson 1pt e/w 33/1
R.Fowler 1pt e/w 40/1
R.Ishikawa 0.5pts e/w 125/1
K.Stanley 0.5pts e/w 125/1
Good Luck All!
Great shout Bruce with Coetzee as FRL
Thanks Daryl
Always interested in your selections as I know you love the golf
Meant to also add that Ryan Palmer was a great pick last week, just caught a very hot Reid with 3 consecutive 63’s.
I backed Palmer on the last day w/out Reid
He had a stunning last round to claim 2nd but was never going to catch Reed, just too good.
Decent starts for 3 of my picks, hopefully they can kick on.
Who you fancying for Torrey Pines??
I cheered his eagle at 18 Daryl
I quite like Gallagher in Doha – good desert player and good form last week
Farmers picks are up! We should average the scores of our 4 players this week after each round and see how they/we get on?
Farmers:
No 1 Brandt Snedeker
Won in 2012, 2nd in 2010 and 2013. Very well suited here and returning to form after a 6 week lay off due to injury (12th at Kapalua). Solid long game and top drawer short game should see him go close again
No 2 Bill Haas
2 of his 5 tour wins have been in California. 9/4/9 last three years here. Sixth last week. Not usually one of my picks but I can’t leave him out at Torrey Pines
No 3 Jimmy Walker
187 starts without a win and then he traps at The Frys last year and in Hawaii this year!! Great recent form. Lacks accuracy off the tee but the rough is short here this week and he hits it miles!
No4 Rickie Fowler
No swing coach for 2 years saw him drop out the top 30 but now working with Butch Harman. 2nd in Oz PGA at the end of last year and has added 10-15 yards off the tee recently. Grew up 75 miles from here in La Jolla so its a home match and could well be a home win!
Hi
one addition to the farmers been niggling me
n coelsarts 125-1
cheers
Might be “cab” for bookies again after my success last week..but we shall see also have carllsson and aitken..so every chance mr F
Poor rounds for me in Qatar means no chance of any money back disappointing as the leading score was one worse than yesterday.
Bruce after day 1 I’m beating you at Torrey Pines!!
It won’t last watch Day and Points collapse on the harder North Course
Cab home in an ambulance but still there also have carllson and aitken..but anyone of 10 can win it now..thanks to mr bello
Looking good for garcia and also spieth! I missed out on garcia because it started on wednesday which it used to start on thursdays same as pga.. Does anyone know why european tour has started on a wednesday and is this a regular thing now? Thanks
Dave787, not sure why but Wednesday won’t be a regular start for Euro Tour. Spieth was tipped on here by our man Ace Venturer (real name) at 40-1 so hopefully will hang on.