PUNTERS looking for an angle in to this week's Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial immediately have their attentions turned to second favourite Zach Johnson.
The 2007 Masters champion has an outstanding record at the venue, winning on two occasions (2012 and 2010) and recording a further top five (2011) and top 10 (2009) finish in the last four renewals.
But crucially all but one of those performances came on the back of a decent month prior to this event. Last year Johnson had just finished second at the RBC Heritage and The Players prior to winning here.
The year before he'd just finished sixth at the Wells Fargo and 12th at The Players, while in 2009 he had a third-place finish and a win to his name leading up to this tournament.
Leading up to this year's defence, Johnson is in no form whatsoever – just two top-20 finishes (18th and 19th) to his name are all he has to show from 12 outings on the PGA Tour this season, albeit one of those came last time out at The Players.
Many will argue Johnson's finish at The Players is a sign he's on his way back to his best – great timing for an event he loves to play if you like – and his form is similar to what he showed leading up to his victory here in 2010 but three years ago he was four times the price he is to win this week.
True, he definitely deserves his place towards the head of the market, but before being tempted to back him at 17.0 I'd have liked to have seen him show more sparkle leading up to this week.
Instead I'm looking at Ben Crane and John Huh while I also give a chance to Ryan Palmer and Charlie Wi.
Huh (41.0) had a scattering of top-30 finishes mixed in with five missed cuts to show for his efforts this season, until he turned up at Augusta.
He would go on to finish in a tie for 11th at the Masters which given the strength of the field was a very creditable effort as well as being out of the blue. And he has since shown that he remains in decent form with a top-10 finish at last week's Byron Nelson Championship.
Last year Huh made his debut in this event and finished in an encouraging tie for fifth. If he can continue the form he has shown in recent weeks hopefully he can prove that last year's debut performance here was no fluke.
Crane (36.0) endured a slow start to his season with four missed cuts in his first six events but bounced back at huge odds to finish in a tie for fourth at the Shell Houston Open – Texas being a favourable place for him to play his best golf it seems.
He then went on to record a top-10 finish at The Players a fortnight ago, which augers well now he's back in his home state and given he has finished in the top five at Colonial in three of the last five years.
Palmer started 2013 in great fashion, recording two top-six finishes within the space of three weeks, but went completely off the boil for a few months.
He bounced back with a highly emotional top-five finish at The Players a fortnight ago and appeared to carry that form forward to the Byron Nelson last week where he was bang in contention at the halfway stage.
Weekend rounds of 73 and 73 sent him tumbling down the pack but I wouldn't write Palmer off yet, especially given he finished in the top five here last year.
Finally a small chance is given to loveable Wi. He's had a poor season admittedly but makes the cut more often than not and has some decent course form to his name here including a runner-up finish in 2011.
Recommended Bets
(all e/w – 1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5)
Back John Huh @ 41.0
Back Ben Crane @ 36.0
Back Ryan Palmer @ 46.0
Back Charlie Wi @ 151.0
Milesey (Betfair)
Resident football tipster at Scotland's most read newspaper, the Daily Record, for over 20 years and proud host of one the best betting communities on the web with daily betting tips.
BMW PGA Championship
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Pre-Event Selections
Luke Donald @ 9.6
Branden Grace @ 55.0
Ernie Els @ 70.0
Richard Sterne @ 70.0 (Fixed odds)
Paul Lawrie @ 75.0
Brett Rumford @ 120.0
Big price £1 / £2 stakes
Back Victor Dubuisson 2u @ 150.0
Back Marcus Fraser 2u @ 160.0
Back Emiliano Grillo 1u @ 300.
1st Day 3ball tips
Back Ian Poulter @ 2.45
Back Francesco Molinari @ 3.0
Back Ross Fisher @ 2.55
Back Paul Lawrie @ 3.75
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Crowne Plaza Invitational
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Pre-Event Selections
Zach Johnson @ 19.0 (Fixed odds)
Martin Laird @ 46.0 (Fixed odds)
Back Ryan Palmer @ 46.0
John Huh @ 51.0 (Fixed odds)
Ben Crane @ 55.0
Back Charlie Wi @ 151.0
Brian Gay @ 170.0
The way i go about golf betting is looking for course specialists, form players, who have made the cut at the events, players who’s game meets the conditions.
Looking to back and watch how things go, when to LAY for the best possible outcome, looking at taking other players inplay who are climbing the leaderboard…. etc….
Milesey
The wide array of speciality markets on Betfair ………………………….
Back to lays
Back Ernie Els 4u @ 60.0
Back Chris Wood 3u @ 85.0
Place order to lay both players 20u @ 10.0
Whichever market you’re playing this week, the two most important areas to study are previous course form and, assuming the weather forecast is correct, an ability to play in windy conditions. Steve Rawlings lays out the Wentworth criteria in detail here and I can’t disagree with a word. It will come as no surprise, therefore, to see there’s plenty of correlation between our selections, starting with arguably the greatest wind player of his generation.
The failure of Ernie Els to win the BMW PGA Championship in nearly two decades of trying, on a course where he won seven World Matchplay titles, is one of golf’s great mysteries. There is an obvious temptation to assume he’s missed his best chances to do so but this tournament plays to the strengths of the older player and while Ernie’s career may be in decline, he proved with last summer’s second Open title that class is permanent.
Until a few weeks ago I wouldn’t have backed him with free money, such was the lack of form, but Els caught the eye when making the top-15 at the Masters and a follow-up second place in Indonesia. While he’ll never be a consistent challenger again, I expect Ernie will pop up with the occasional stellar performance in his favourite events for another decade. It’s what great players do. The key to predicting these increasingly rare forays into contention is the conditions. In a birdie-fest on fast greens, Els may as well not bother. When the wind is up, though, he still has very few equals.
Given a very tough week in that respect, I’m expecting Ernie to bag yet another top-ten at least and at 60.0, he offers plenty of trading mileage. So does wind-specialist Chris Wood at 90.0. Rookies rarely contend at Wentworth, so Wood’s course debut in 2010 is eyecatching. On that occasion, Chris badly bottled an opportunity to win his first title after holding the 54-hole lead. Such stage fright at this level is entirely forgiveable and Wood is a better player nowadays. He’s won a decent event this season at a windswept Qatar Masters and was second in Thailand on his penultimate start.
The trading plan is to stake seven units combined on Els and Wood, then place lay orders on both at 10.0 to retrieve 20 units and therefore bank a minimum of 13 units profit.
Tournament Matchbets
*Note, all of these matchbets can be backed either on the exchange or at fixed odds on the sportsbook
Back Luke Donald to beat Rory McIlroy 8u @ 1.8
With a vast bank of previous course form to study, there are few better events for match betting purposes. The numbers show clearly which players are well suited to Wentworth and which ones repeatedly struggle. This match-up involving the market leaders is a classic case in point. Luke Donald has a machine-like record here, winning the last two renewals and making the top-seven in five of his last six attempts. In contrast, McIlroy has only one top-20 in five attempts.
Back Justin Rose to beat Graeme McDowell 8u @ 1.8
Similarly Justin Rose is a blindingly obvious bet here, without taking anything away from Graeme McDowell’s outstanding performance to win last week’s Volvo World Matchplay. Gmac is very much a ‘horses for courses’ type of player – ultra-reliable in certain events, ultra-opposable in others – and this is clearly one of his bad events. In ten cracks at this title, he’s only made one top-20 and never challenged. Rose meanwhile has twice been runner-up and finished top-11 on four of his last six attempts. Moreover, Justin’s reputation has never been stronger.
Back Marcus Fraser to beat Pablo Larrazabal 7u @ 2.1
There are some players that appear totally unsuited to Wentworth’s narrow, tree-lined layout, because of their ultra-attacking, often wayward style. Pablo Larrazabal fits that bill perfectly, so it is no surprise to learn that he’s never bettered 48th here. Yet because he’s been in fine form in very different events, Larrazabal is afforded plenty of respect by layers this week and rated favourite to win this match against another in-form player. Marcus Fraser was fourth here two years ago, runner-up on his penultimate start and, in addition to making my Find Me a 100 Winner line-up, looks a cracking odds-against bet here.
Top-10 Finish
Back Ernie Els 4u @ 5.4
Back Victor Dubuisson 2u @ 10.0
Back David Howell 2u @ 11.0
Back Paul Waring 1u @ 20.0
The case for backing Ernie Els is laid out above and likewise, detailed justification for backing Victor Dubuisson can be found here in my 100 Winner column. In short, the Frenchman is a superb ball-striker with a good top-ten ratio, who should be well suited to Wentworth.
David Howell, who won this title in a canter seven years ago. He’s been very consistent this season and decades of intimate course experience must bring him into calculations, at least for place markets. Finally Paul Waring has caught the eye as an excellent wind player and on the back of a decent run, could be a live outsider. Waring has made his last three top-25s, finishing fourth in Spain, hitting a lot of fairways and greens in the process. That’s exactly what will be required at Wentworth and it’s encouraging that Waring made both previous cuts here, finishing a promising 21st on his 2009 debut.
Milesey ( betfair )
Bmw pga championship
Richard sterne 55/1 @bet365
Crowne plaza invitational
Kevin streelmen 25/1 @bet365
And
Rory Mcilroy 10/1 @bet365
Henrik stenson 33/1 @bet365
Double
Back Ryan Palmer @ 46.0
-8 and 2 shots clear at the top of the leaderboard :)
Milesey