What will it take to win the BMW PGA Championship?
Being able to play in windy conditions and having the experience of the Wentworth wind is crucial. As well as a yardage book, the players are issued with a wind map but just how much it helps I've no idea.
It can be quite baffling at times, you can be in one spot on the course and barely feel the wind but you can walk along a short while and it wll be blowing a gale!
The course plays much harder in breezy conditions and can be confusing for those with little course experience.
A straight game is definitely preferable to a long one and patience is a prerequisite too. To win here you need to bide your time, avoid trouble and make your score on the long holes.
Is there an angle in?
Course form stands up really well and it often pays to follow those who have shown a liking to the place already. The likes of Rory McIlroy, Ian Poulter, Graeme McDowell and Padraig Harrington always seem to struggle and are simply not worth persevering with.
In contrast, plenty of players, and some of them far from fashionable, play well here year after year. You need to oppose the Wentworth wobblers and get with the Wentworth winners.
Is there an identikit winner?
British players, and English players in particular, have a great record in the event and an Englishman has won the last four renewals.
There have been some big-priced winners in the past and the unheralded Simon Khan took the title in 2010, the first year the event was played following the major course changes, but over the last two years the best have been slugging it out come Sunday.
Lee Westwood pushed Luke Donald all the way two years ago and last year it was Justin Rose. It's a sterner test than ever now, especially in the wind, and I'll be surprised if we get a shock winner this year.
In-Play Tactics
The forecast suggests strong winds will be an ever-present over the first two days, before conditions improve over the weekend. It's going to be fairly cold too so don't expect low scoring. It may be the market doesn't quite recognise a good score on Thursday morning and there might be a bit of value about early on.
Ordinarily I'd expect around -6 to be leading after day one but I fancy it could be considerably higher this year.
With two par 5s to finish anything can happen and big swings can occur late on. There were only eight eagles made all week on 17 and 18 last year (four on each) but a birdie-birdie finish isn't uncommon. And nor is a bogey-bogey finish either.
Luke Donald blew a great chance here in 2010 when he double bogeyed the 17th and now there's water in front of the 18th, anything can happen there too.
Market Leaders
Nick Faldo won this event four times, and Bernard Langer and Colin Montgomerie both did so on three occasions, so multiple wins are fairly common.
Monty won his three-in-a-row between 1998 and 2000 and Donald has an excellent chance of emulating him this time around.
Second and third favourites, McIlroy and Westwood, both have largely disappointing form around Wentworth and both are readily dismissed at the prices, and so too is Rose.
With two second-placed finishes around Wentworth, Rose has the course form in the book but he's been off the boil for a while now and his missed cut at the Players Championship hardly bodes well.
The entire winning Ryder Cup team from Medinah is present this week and I have to wonder if that's the only reason Sergio Garcia is playing. He's been quite well supported in the market but given he hasn't played in this event since 2000 I'm more than happy to pass him up.
Selections
Although I've only had a very small wager on Donald, I felt I couldn't leave him out of my calculations entirely. He isn't quite at the top of his game at present but nobody in the field plays Wentworth as well as him and I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised to see him win it for a third straight year.
I've outlined the case for South African Branden Grace here and for small stakes only I've given his fellow countryman, Els, one more try at a big price.
The Big Easy used to live at Wentworth and owned the Volvo Match Play here, winning it a record seven times, but for some bizarre reason he's never won this one. He had to deflect an awful lot of flak two years ago over the course changes and last year he lost the plot over the watering of the greens. Hopefully he can have a more peaceful week this year and just concentrate on contending.
He's been putting well of late, he'll be in the minority when it comes to being able to figure out the wind over the first two days and he was far too big at 70.0.
Playing on a medical exemption 12 months ago, and following five straight missed cuts, Richard Sterne really caught the eye with his sixth-placed finish. He was also third here in 2007 and over the last six months on the European Tour he's the No.1 performer on the par fives. He's already a winner this season, having claimed the Joburg Open in February, and I can see him going really well this week.
Paul Lawrie has a great record at Wentworth and the tough conditions on Thursday and Friday may play to his strengths. He's not the fastest starter and often has too much to do over the weekend but it might be a bit of grind over the first two days this year and that should suit him.
Putting has been his weakness this year but he tweeted yesterday the “putter had been good this week”.
My final selection is Brett Rumford who I was very surprised to get 120.0 about. Rumford has won his last two stroke play events and was fourth here in 2006 so he has both current and course form. He grew up in Perth, playing the tree-lined Lake Karrinyup Country Club and contending with the notorious Fremantle Doctor. He has one of the finest short games in the world at present, it won't matter a jot how hard the wind blows and there's no way he should be trading at a tripe-figure price.
Pre-Event Selections
Luke Donald @ 9.6
Branden Grace @ 55.0
Ernie Els @ 70.0
Richard Sterne @ 70.0 (Fixed Odds)
Paul Lawrie @ 75.0
Brett Rumford @ 120.0
Milesey (Betfair)
Resident football tipster at Scotland's most read newspaper, the Daily Record, for over 20 years and proud host of one the best betting communities on the web with daily betting tips.
Did my bets yesterday went with
F.Molinari
Sterne
Grace
Manassero
In the US of A
Stenson
Jacobson
Points
English
Points withdrew so gone with Ben Crane
Have also added Olesen for Wentworth
Several massive outsiders have won the BMW PGA Championship during it’s long history, most recently Simon Khan at odds of 600.0 in 2010.
As always, a plethora of world-class players head the market for this week’s BMW PGA Championship, which is good news for the purposes of this column. Extra quality and depth amongst the favourites means many more plausible winners within our price-range and it must be said that narrowing this week’s shortlist was tougher than usual. For example, I will probably have a moan if Paul Casey wins but with three bigger-priced alternatives marginally preferred, the line had to be drawn somewhere.
First up at odds of 150.0, Victor Dubuisson hasn’t won yet, but this promising Frenchman looks bound to break through sooner or later. Dubuisson’s first 59 starts on the European Tour have yielded an impressive 20 top-25 finishes, including 11 top-tens, four of which have come this season. The feature of his play throughout has been long game excellence, as demonstrated by topping the greens in regulation stats last time out en route to third place in the China Open. That bodes well for Wentworth’s tough test, as does 21st on last year’s course debut.
Nobody came closer last season to landing this column a winner than Marcus Fraser, who traded at heavily odds-on when losing a play-off for the BMW International Open. He also gave us a good run for our money in this event two years ago, finishing fourth at around 500.0. This year he’s available at 160.0, which still looks way too big and something of an insult. Recent form is excellent too, with Fraser finishing second on his penultimate start in the Ballantines, (his third runners-up spot in the past year), and fifth in the Dubai Desert Classic.
Normally I’d be loathe to back a rookie around Wentworth but at odds of 300.0, an exception can be made for Emiliano Grillo. I strongly suspect that before long, we will only be able to dream of taking such odds about the next great Argentinian player. Grillo has repeatedly caught the eye in recent months and with top-25s on five of his last six starts, looks certain to contend strongly very soon. He ranks second for total driving this season and ranked in the top-three for greens in regulation on three of those recent starts. That’s the perfect skills-set for Wentworth.
The trading plan is to stake five units in total, then place lay orders at 14.0 and 3.0 on each player. If just one of them hits the first target, we’ll be guaranteed to at least triple our money.
Recommended bets
Back Victor Dubuisson 2u @ 150.0
Back Marcus Fraser 2u @ 160.0
Back Emiliano Grillo 1u @ 300.
SOME E/W SELECTIONS TO CONSIDER
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Back Danny Willett @ 126.0
Danny Willett hasn’t played competitively since early March, when he finished fifth at the Tshwane Open in South Africa; he’s kept himself busy in the meantime with a stag do and wedding. After two months off it’s anyone’s guess how the newly married golfer will perform this week but at 126.0 it’s worth a risk. I remember vividly Willett briefly taking control of this tournament before folding in 2010, since then the young Englishman has broken his duck on the European Tour and may be a different proposition in contention.
Back David Horsey @ 71.0
Whatever the level, continually getting into contention and finishing high up has to do the confidence a world of good. So it doesn’t matter that David Horsey’s last three appearances have been in low-profile, low-on-quality European Tour events. The fact that he finished second, fourth, and sixth does matter as it shows the young Englishman is playing some of the best golf of his career. He’s also a two-time winner on the European Tour and finished in a tie for seventh here in 2011 when in similar form. A reproduction of his golf in the last month must see him go well.
Back Richard Sterne @ 51.0
Richard Sterne has spent a couple of years in the golfing wilderness but has been a revitalised figure this year. A win at the Joburg Open in February ended a five year drought but was the sixth of his European Tour career, so we know he can be trusted when in contention. Long off the tee but accurate with it, Sterne has also been putting well this year and possesses the game to go well at Wentworth as two top-10 finishes, including a sixth in 2012, would testify.
Back Matteo Manassero @ 67.0
Wentworth is very much a course that requires plenty of learning, favouring experienced players, so we should sit up and take notice when a youngster immediately gets the hang of the place. Matteo Manassero made the top-20 on his course debut at the age of 17 and a year later held the lead going into the final round. Pressure took it’s toll on that occasion but the brilliant young Italian, still only 20, looks a surefire winner of this event one day. Though he hasn’t set the golfing world alight yet this season, Manassero has been consistent, making the top-25 on every European Tour start and, as usual, hitting a very high percentage of fairways.
Back Branden Grace @ 51.0
Branden Grace was no match for match play specialist Graeme McDowell on Sunday in the semi-finals of the Volvo World Match Play but it was still a hugely encouraging week. Understandably, the South African hasn’t yet matched the spectacular heights of 2012, when he won five times (four times on the European Tour) but he might not be far off winning again now. His fifth place finish on debut last year was a tremendous performance and if he builds on that he’ll be bang in contention on Sunday afternoon.
Milesey
Did my bets today – good luck Daryl
BMW: Lee Westwood
Justin Rose
Richard Sterne
Marcel Siem
David Horsey
Crowne Plaza: Kevin Streelman
Martin Laird
Charlie Hoffman
Ben Crane
Marc Leishman
Rajasthan Royals v Sunrisers Hyderabad
3:30 ITV4
Rajasthan Royals
The spot-fixing scandal which hit Rajasthan at the end of last week was a body blow to a franchise which has consistently over-performed this season. Before that, there was much talk of how Rahul Dravid had fostered a great team spirit which was pulling the Royals to a successful season; now, the question has to be whether that will be enough for them to overcome this major setback.
In terms of selection, it won’t make a lot of difference. None of the players concerned played in more than half of their group games and none of them had a strike rate of even one wicket per game. A bigger concern will be that they get Sunday’s bad performance against the same opponents out of their system and get back to the form which saw them lose just two of their last seven games. Don’t expect too many changes to the team, but look for Brad Hodge to bat much higher up the order than the 6th or 7th spot he has occupied of late. The team needs more experience and more impetus in the upper middle order than it has had of late.
Sunrisers Hyderabad
Hyderabad have been the surprise team of this year’s IPL, taking the core of the defunct Deccan Chargers squad and turning them into a winning team. This is despite the fact that their captain keeps dropping himself, the attack seems to consist entirely of one man, and one of their top run scorers being an all-rounder who rarely bats higher than number eight. Whether Dale Steyn, Thisara Perera and nine others will be enough to win the IPL is open to debate, but they have shown that they are more than capable of beating any side on their day.
Venue and Conditions
Predicting what might happen on this Delhi pitch is rendered more complicated by it have been used by the IPL’s bottom team all season. Teams not called ‘Delhi Daredevils’ who batted first here all made scores of over 160, including Rajasthan, who made 165. Hyderabad, on the other hand, lost seven wickets and used up 116 balls chasing a victory target of just 115. It is going to be a chilly night by Delhi standards, a mere 35 degrees. Daytime temperature will be closer to 45, which means that the sudden fall could make dew a factor.
Match Odds
That this is a close game to call is reflected in the market, with Rajasthan at 1.94 and Hyderabad at 2.06. Hyderabad won Sunday’s meeting by 23 runs, but the Royals had an equally (if not more) comfortable win in the first match between the two, strolling home by eight wickets. A Rajasthan win looks the safer bet here.
Top Rajasthan Batsman
Cometh the hour, cometh The Wall. If you are looking for a big name to play a big game, look no further than the Royals’ captain. Dravid hasn’t had a great IPL, getting starts at the top of the order, but without pushing on to a big score. In the first knockout match and with the side he helped build reeling already, back him at 4.3 to top score.
Top Hyderabad Batsman
Of all of the Sunrisers’ batsmen, the one who stands out in this market is Darren Sammy. The West Indian captain has made a few good scores in this competition, he lifted the T20 World Cup only last year and has a habit of making runs in crunch games.
Recommended Bet: Rajasthan WIN at 1.94
Milesey
RESULT
————
INDIA: Premier League – Play Offs
Rajasthan Royals 135-132 Sunrisers Hyderabad
Milesey
The Crowne Plaza Invitational
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Tournament History
First staged in 1946, the Crowne Plaza Invitational is one of the oldest events on the PGA Tour. Tradition dictates that the winner receives a tartan plaid jacket and that their name is etched onto a marble display cast. This will be the 66th staging of the event.
Venue
Colonial Country Club, Fort Worth, Texas
Course Details
Par 70 -7,204 yards
Stroke Index in 2011 – 70.98
Colonial Country Club has hosted the event since year one and on the US Tour, only the US Masters has been staged at the same venue for longer. It’s a tight tree-lined track with lots of dog-legs and small bentgrass greens that run at 11.5 on the stimpmeter. Water is in play on six holes and the course is littered with strategically placed fairway bunkers.
The 1st and 2nd holes are nice and gentle but the players are then faced with the ‘horrible horseshoe’. The 483 yard 3rd nearly always averages over par, and so does the lengthy par 3 4th. Once through those two holes the par 4 5th is the toughest on the track and players can soon give up early gains made at one and two.
Ben Hogan won the inaugural event and then four times subsequently, which is why Colonial CC is often affectionately referred to as ‘Hogan’s Alley’.
TV Coverage
Live on Sky all four days, starting at 8.00pm on Thursday.
Last Five Winners
2012 – Zach Johnson -12
2011 – David Toms -15
2010 – Zach Johnson -21
2009 – Steve Stricker -17 (Playoff)
2008 – Phil Mickelson -14
What will it take to win the Crowne Plaza Invitational?
It’s all about accuracy this week, both off the tee and from the fairway. You need to avoid the fairway bunkers and find the right portion of the fairways to attack the small greens. There a number of doglegged holes so players that can shape the ball both ways prosper. Length of the tee is almost irrelevant but good scrambling is vital. As an indication of the sort of game required, four of the last five winners have ranked inside the top-ten for greens hit and no winner over that period has ranked worse than 18th for scrambling.
Is there an identikit winner?
With length unimportant and accuracy key, this is a venue where the older pros do very well. Sergio Garcia, way back in 2001, is the last player under the age of 30 to win and seven of the last 15 winners have been aged 40 or over. This is an event the vets can’t wait for and the likes of Corey Pavin, Tom Lehman and David Frost have chosen to play here instead of appearing in the PGA Championship on the Champions Tour.
In the 65 year history at Colonial, only eight winners were winning their first PGA Tour event here. We’ve had a number of breakthrough winners on the PGA Tour this season but don’t expect one this week.
Experience of the course is very important and the average number of event starts the winners have had before bagging the title is 8.22.
In-Play Tactics
A fast start is usually required at Colonial. Rory Sabbatini (in 2007) is the only winner this century to be any further than four shots off the lead after round one and three of the last four winners were leading or co-leading after the first 18 holes.
The last four third round leaders have all been beaten but 2009 winner, Steve Stricker, only trailed Tim Clark by two strokes after 54 holes and the last three winners were all just one behind with a round to go. In the eight years before Stricker, every winner had either led or co-led after three rounds so don’t be in a rush to oppose the front-runners.
Market Leaders
It’s tight at the top and for my money, the two market leaders are the wrong way round. Current favourite, Charl Schwartzel, comes here fresh from an excellent third at last week’s Byron Nelson but this will be his first sighting of Colonial and as highlighted above, that’s quite a handicap, whereas current second best, Zach Johnson, knows the place like the back of his hand.
With recent Colonial form figures that read 9-1-4-1, Zach’s 72 in windy conditions on day four last year was the first time he failed to break the par of 70 in 16 spins around the track and for my money, arriving as he does, after a top-20 finish at the Players Championship last time out, he’s the man to beat.
Third best, Matt Kuchar, doesn’t winner anywhere near as often as he should and with just one top-ten finish in six starts here, he makes little appeal.
Jason Dufner was in the form of his life when he led here with a round to go twelve months ago before finishing runner-up to Zach. Prior to that he’d missed the cut twice and finished tied 59th on his only other appearances so I’m inclined to think last year may have been a one off and he too is readily dismissed.
Selections
Having already backed quite a few at the BMW PGA Championship, the plan here was to take it easy before the off and get more involved in running – concentrating my efforts on the early pace-setters. Up until this morning Ben Crane and Brian Gay were the only players I’d backed but then the Fixed Odds Market went up and I was like a kid in a sweet shop!
I was prepared to pass on Zach Johnson before the get-go at 16.0 but I felt 19.0 (a price that’s still available at the time of writing) was just too big to resist. And I also backed Martin Laird and John Huh at 46.0 and 51.0 respectfully in the Fixed Odds Market.
I’d managed to get a small amount matched at 55.0 on Laird early on Monday and I was kicking myself for not taking the 50.0 available when I had the chance. He’s already won in Texas this year, at the Valero Texas Open, has two top-ten finishes from two starts here and he finished tied 5th last time out at the Players.
Laird was a borderline play at just 46.0 if I’m honest and I’m still not sure I’ve done the right thing taking just 51.0 about Huh, but did I have a choice?
I backed him last week at 130.0, when he finished tied 8th at the Byron Nelson, and at 110.0 on debut here last year when he finished tied 5th. I know I haven’t got a value price about him this week, having missed the 60.0 available early on, but given how I’d feel if he won un-backed, I couldn’t leave him out once he was chalked up at 51.0.
Ben Crane has a solid record in his home state of Texas and he has a fine record at this event in particular, with four top-tens (three top-fives) in his last six starts. I’ve often played Ben in this one and at odds of 55.0 I was happy to do so again this time around.
And finally, I’ve thrown a few pounds at Brian Gay again. He was runner-up here way back in 2001 so he can play Colonial and at odds of 170.0 I’m not risking much to win a lot.
Pre-Event Selections
Zach Johnson @ 19.0 (Fixed Odds)
Martin Laird @ 46.0 (Fixed Odds)
John Huh @ 51.0 (Fixed Odds)
Ben Crane @ 55.0
Brian Gay @ 170.0
Milesey
BOXING
————-
Tony Bellew faces a rematch against the teak-tough Isaac Chilemba on the undercard to the Froch-Kessler fight on Saturday night……………..
On a night of rematch and revenge, Tony Bellew and Isaac Chilemba face off once again in take two of their world title eliminator. The first, drawn bout in March raised genuine questions about Bellew’s claim for global honors, so this is a career defining night all round.
A bit like the star bout at the top of the bill, Bellew and Chilemba are quite evenly matched and could probably fight several times without a decisive winner. It’s fair enough to have Bellew as favourite (1.67); he has home advantage and is likely to press the fight more than he did in Liverpool. But Chilemba (2.64) is a nightmare to fight; he’s skillful, elusive and probably a shade quicker than Bellew. This is likely to make uncomfortable viewing once again both for Bellew backers and casual fans.
There is an argument Chilemba produced the better work in the first bout despite Tony’s protestations about being ‘robbed.’ Chilemba boxed with great skill on the back foot and made Bellew miss frequently but Chilemba fought like a sparring partner not a would-be world champion and that may have hurt him in the eyes of the judges. Is it possible that a more positive minded Chilemba could win this? Chilemba is not a big, strong light-heavyweight, he only has nine stoppages in 23 fights, so it’s unlikely he can hold center ring or indeed push Bellew back. If he’s to win, Chilemba has to be even more eye-catching than he was in Liverpool and that may not be so easy second time around.
Ironically, Bellew seemed at his most effective when he found his rhythm and boxed Chilemba through the last third. Prior to that it was very much effort over art as Bellew pushed forward but was often picked off and punished for his mistakes. But there is an important point to make here and that concerns how many of us – punters, pundits or indeed judges themselves – view fights. There is no doubt that a fighter coming forward is generally perceived to be ‘winning’ whether landing punches or not. There is sure to be an element of that with Bellew forcing the pace, hopefully with more zeal than before. It is still likely Chilemba will have his success but he missed a golden opportunity in March through lack of conviction if not effort, and I suspect that Bellew will let his hands go this time.
The prize for the winner is everything, with a fight against WBC champion Chad Dawson in the works should he defend his belt in June. Both men are hungry, Chilemba grew up frequently so and regularly sends his purse money back to his family in Johannesburg. Bellew can’t match that difficult background but he trains like a madman with the team at Everton FC and his performance is likely to reflect a tremendous desire. It will be tight, probably frustrating at times but I think Bellew will do enough to edge it.
There’s no doubt that Bellew has recently failed to deliver on promises as well as now-commonplace pre-fight talk. He was a knock-out artist early on in his career and still has the power to do damage but better fighters aren’t falling over these days. Bellew has gone the distance in four of his last six fights while Chilemba is difficult to catch clean and has never been stopped. This fight has all the makings of another long night which Bellew can win by DEC/TD 2.3. There won’t be fireworks but that looks sure to follow when Froch and Kessler take to the stage.
Recommended Bet
Back Tony Bellew to beat Isaac Chilemba by DEC/TD at 2.3
Milesey
WIN for Carl ‘The Cobra’ Froch on Saturday night against his old enemy Mikkel Kessler…
Once upon a time boxers fought the best as a matter of course if not honour, thrilling 15 round wars were commonplace and legends such as Sugar Ray Robinson were born. The sport is a much changed place now but Carl Froch and Mikkel Kessler would be celebrated in any era. Soon these old school hard men go at it again in a much anticipated re-match, a fight for the ages.
There’s been no sledging, no stunts and certainly no burning dollar bills; this return fight sells itself, just as easily as the tickets which vanished in a matter of hours. That day, I watched the tickets disappear on the screen before my eyes as the system refused to process an order for me and my pals. It is a tale familiar to many who wanted to be there because boxing fans and those who love sport know that this is it. Boxing doesn’t get more real or indeed better.
Much has happened since Kessler edged Froch in an absolute barn-burner three years ago when the only thing hotter than the prevailing ash cloud causing havoc across Europe was the punching inside the ring that night in Denmark. It was 12 rounds of carnage as the action flowed destructively and heavy shots became the stock in trade. Both men were rocked but stood firm, Kessler was badly cut and Froch lost the WBC belt as well as his unbeaten record. The record book reflects Froch has fared better since as his reputation has soared.
I previewed the fight then too and described how I had been waiting for that fight, the bet on Kessler for so long I could barely contain myself. I always believed Mikkel would be too fast, too good for Carl but the truth is there wasn’t much in it at all. Now Froch is the favourite 1.54 and rightly so, he approaches this in the form of his life. Kessler 3.0 is back fit, healthy and winning well but perhaps not quite the force of 2010. How the picture has changed. But the market has moved in tandem with the general mood swing and though I’ve moved with it, there is an argument to say there has been an over-reaction. There isn’t much between this pair and that should be reflected in the prices. I think Froch will win but there is a case to back Kessler on price alone.
You sense that Froch and Kessler could fight ten times and share five wins each, so closely are they matched. The Kessler who pushed Joe Calzaghe so hard in 2007 would beat Froch most times, I believe, but the wear is beginning to tear and there were signs of decline during Kessler’s four round win over Allan Green last May. The Dane recovered from an early knockdown to stop Green but the way Kessler went down got me thinking. I wonder if his body can stand the likely punishment coming his way. Froch has never looked like being stopped, Kessler hasn’t yet (except on cuts to Andre Ward) but time may be pressing. Put it this way, if you had to back one man to stand firm it would be Froch.
Kessler is, technically, the better boxer but he does like to stay in range and he does get hit more than he used to. I have a sneaking feeling that Mikkel and Jimmy Montoya may plan to out-box and out-smart Froch; I’m just not certain he can start dancing at this stage of his career. Certainly that’s the way to beat Froch; speed beats ‘The Cobra’ most times. But the loss to Ward forced Froch to adapt and the most impressive part of his demolition job on Lucian Bute last May was the number of punches he threw in succession. It made Froch less susceptible to counters and more likely to land his own heavy hands. It may be the deciding factor here, along with pure, innate courage.
Froch has gone the distance in six of his last nine bouts and with Kessler’s durability the 2.52 for Froch by DEC/TD is probably the call but I am drawn to the idea of Froch by KO/TKO/DQ 3.7. Kessler hasn’t been in with an A-List fighter for more than two years and I sense he might be about to ‘go’. Froch meanwhile is bursting with confidence and power. Maybe Mikkel has one last, big night in him but it looks like the time is right for The Cobra. Whatever happens, it will almost certainly be worth paying the extra few Sky Box Office bucks for. Trilogy decider anyone?
Recommended Bet
Back Carl Froch to beat Mikkel Kessler at 1.54
Milesey
Who knows if he’s Britain’s best athlete, but his accomplishments clearly make him country’s no.1 pound-for-pound boxer. There’s no bullshit about Froch any more. Mikkel Kessler may need to produce the performance of his life if he’s to avoid being yet another boxer muscled into the shade by the burning ambition of Carl Froch.
Recommended Bet
The safe, solid tip is Froch via points, as it’s hard to force a stoppage when two fighters are so evenly matched – but Froch has forced the pace well in his last two fights. If he can do that this time, he might wear Kessler down force a late intervention. Froch by stoppage in rounds 10, 11 or 12 are generously priced at 34.0, 36.0 and 46.0.
Milesey
The European Tour returns to HQ for the BMW PGA Championship – A quartet of picks from the first day three-balls
Ian Poulter was disgusted with his performance at last week’s Matchplay, where he exited at the first hurdle. However, he is as strong as they come mentally and stated he’ll get over it by winning this week. Although outright victory might be a little ambitious, winning his three-ball on day one should be attainable. The Englishman is up against two opponents that have a disappointing record at Wentworth – Nicolas Colsaerts and Brett Rumford have missed a number of cuts here.
We all know that anything can happen in Matchplay, so we can forgive Francesco Molinari his quarter-final exit to Thomas Aiken last week. Molinari has struggled to get going this season but looked to be striking the ball beautifully last week in Bulgaria. The straight-hitting Italian was seventh at Wentworth last year; the course sets up perfectly for him. At the prices, he must be backed to outscore Lee Westwood and Ernie Els on day one.
Ross Fisher is in the middle of his first full season on the PGA Tour in America, he’s currently 120th in the FedEx Cup standings and despite a number of missed cuts is well on the way to keeping his card. Fisher was a Wentworth member and has come close to winning this tournament a couple of times, not least in 2007 when he collapsed when holding the final day lead. Perhaps we’ll see the Englishman go well in familiar surroundings, away from the pressures of the new tour. His playing partners George Coetzee and Jamie Donaldson will be no pushovers in what looks a tight three-ball.
World number two Rory McIlroy is the best player in the field, Graeme McDowell is the form player in the field (two wins in his last three starts) but Paul Lawrie – the third member of what looks a high quality three-ball – has the best stroke average around Wentworth, was second last year and sixth in 2010. At the prices the Scot has to be the bet.
Recommended Bets
Back Ian Poulter @ 2.45
Back Francesco Molinari @ 3.0
Back Ross Fisher @ 2.55
Back Paul Lawrie @ 3.75
Milesey
I’m backing the following at Wentworth, both outright and place market.
BET DONALD TO WIN 8/1
BET WESTWOOD TO WIN 11/1
BET MCDOWELL TO WIN 20/1
E/W SELECTION LARRAZABAL 80/1
PLACE MARKETS TOP TEN SELECTIONS
WESTWOOD 11/10
MCDOWELL 15/8
LARRAZABEL 13/2
Odds at coral
Good luck if you have a bet
Milesey
Can I ask why you are giving good reasons to back players like Els and Rumford outright but then backing against them in the 3 ball betting? You are backing Rumford due to good course form (2006) but you are backing against him due to his disappointing record at Wentworth
I don’t expect him to win the three ball, against the opposition, Poulter was an angry man after the last event at the weekend, so he will be firing from the off, but he won’t substain that in my opinion…. Rumford has been playing some good golf recently, record isn’t great here, except 2006 of cause, but playing some nice golf, i don’t expect him to win the 3 ball, but at 120.0 i can’t ignore a player in some good form, and if he can get up the leaderboard and his odds cut in, i will be of cause Laying for some nice profit.
Milesey
It’s 3 balls for day one, i’d be happy if Poulter shoots a 6 under and Rumford a 5 under, could then trade out on Rumford depending on whats happened in the market, but on recent form you can’t ignore the 120.0 in the out right market…… Molinari @ 3.0 is the outsider in this 3 ball, and i like abit of value ;)
Milesey
Cheers Milesey…good luck and good to have more golf on the site!