We welcome back James, a regular contributor over at our friends WeLoveBetting, who has been a valuable member of the team there for a number of years.
This weekend he has previewed 4 matches in the English Championship.
Burnley v Wigan
It’s another week in the Championship and another instalment of the mini North West takes place as runaway leaders Burnley take on relegation-threatened Wigan. It continues to be an unforgettable debut season for Vincent Kompany at the helm and they could feasibly be five or six games away from already confirming an instant return to the Premier League. With an attractive FA Cup clash with Manchester City on the horizon as well, the Clarets still have plenty to look forward to and Kompany won’t want complacency to settle in.
Wigan may remain at the foot of the table but Shaun Maloney to his credit has had a bit of an impact since his surprise appointment. The Kolo Toure experiment didn’t last very well, and the former Wigan winger has at least made his side harder to beat. Across his seven games in the dugout, he has overseen just one win, four draws and two slender losses. The common theme is every game has remained tight, but with a six-point gap now opening up to the Holy Grail of outside the bottom three, they need wins. Expecting it to come at Turf Moor, however, is a major ask.
There is a midweek round of games to come next week, so don’t be surprised if Kompany does make a change or two. This hasn’t proved to be an issue for them across the campaign, however, as the strength in depth of their squad has proved to be more than up to the task. Lengthy injuries to Jay Rodriguez and Manuel Benson haven’t led to a dip in results or performances, but they are closing in on returns anyway. Wigan will travel looking to prove competitive and still hard to beat, but you just can’t see Burnley being denied.
It is maybe no shock to see Burnley possessing the best defensive record in the division given their manager was a top-class centre-half in his playing days. Their playing through the third style of play continues to impress and get results. They’re on a run of eight clean sheets over their previous 12 in all competitions, and they’ll be suitably motivated to bounce back after only drawing to another North West rival in the form of Blackpool last time out. Odds of 1/1 from BetVictor only Burnley To Win To Nil is a sensible wager in this top versus bottom encounter.
QPR v Watford
There is another local battle we’re glancing our eye on this weekend and that comes at Loftus Road where Watford makes the 20-mile or so journey across the capital to take on QPR. Gareth Ainsworth is still looking to have the desired effect since jumping up a league from Wycombe Wanderers and has overseen back-to-back 3-1 defeats, making it four 3-1 losses in succession for The Rs. They continue to slide closer and closer to the relegation places, and a run of 13 without a win quickly ended hopes of a play-off push, as well as exiting the FA Cup to lower league Fleetwood Town.
All eyes will be on the away team dugout as well as Watford sacked their second manager of the season when dismissing Slaven Bilic earlier this week, and quickly replaced him with former Sheffield United boss Chris Wilder, who has five promotions to his name on his managerial CV. He inherits a team with just one win in eight to their name, with several draws coming in that time. A four-point gap to the playoffs is certainly achievable, but he’ll need to hit the ground running to try and build up some end-of-season momentum.
One common factor that both teams will have going for them here is that both of their respective managers will have them fired up for this one. Ainsworth has been looking to build up team morale in the days leading up to this one with various team bonding exercises, whilst Wilder obviously wants to make an instant impact as well with his incredibly talented squad. It would just be easy to say that Watford have better players than QPR, but they do! One thing Wilder will do is let the hand break off his team to a degree. He is a very offensively-minded coach, and could even return to the 3-5-2 formation that has served him so well in the past. That system should suit this Watford squad nicely, and may even take them to another level.
There’s always a degree of risk backing a team which has a new manager in charge, but I still feel the 6/4 from Betfred on an away victory here has to be the play. There is certainly no appeal in backing a QPR side that last won a game before Christmas. That will change at some point, but if Watford clicks then they could have a very profitable afternoon, and hopefully, we will as well.
Swansea v Middlesbrough
A high-on-confidence Middlesbrough outfit, that bounced back to winning ways when hammering Reading 5-0 last weekend, makes the trip to Swansea looking to keep on the pressure on second-placed Sheffield United. The gap between the two is at seven points with 11 matches remaining, so Michael Carrick’s men will need to maintain their excellent form in their remaining games to try and gate-crash the top-two party.
Swansea are now one of the few teams in the league which has slumped into a very mid-table position, to the point where you could argue they no longer have anything to play for this season. 11 points above the drop zone and 12 points to the play-off places offers a good case for that. Failing to add a new player to their squad in the January transfer window and fan disappointment at recent performances has led to a negative cloud surrounding the club, something boss Russell Martin has admitted it is tough to break away from. Four without a win, including three defeats, means the Swans need to up their game this weekend.
Boro, now in their sixth consecutive season at this level, have been near faultless since Carrick was the fairly surprising appointment to replace Chris Wilder in October. A 70% winning record is mightily impressive, but the fact all four of his league defeats came away from home proves that they can occasionally be caught out in a game like this. That being said, they have an excellent record against bottom-half teams, winning 11 of 18 fixtures, and all three defeats being by the odd goal.
They’re so strong at The Riverside, so it is on the road where you’re likely to see them slip up, if at all. Swerving the outright markets is my advice, and there is an obvious goalscorer play that we just have to go for. Chuba Akpom is clear at the summit of the top goalscorer chart in the Championship, and you can get 7/4 from Bet365 on him adding to that tally on Saturday. Eight goals in his last seven appearances proves he is in a good place, in what has been quite the turnaround in his career. Carrick has brought him right back into the picture after being frozen out under in last few managers and using him in what was an unfamiliar number ten position has seemingly brought the best out of him.
West Brom v Huddersfield
Our final look at the Championship weekend sees us look towards The Hawthorns as West Brom look to maintain their push for the playoffs against struggling Huddersfield. The Baggies got back to winning ways in midweek when edging out another relegation candidate in the form of Wigan at home, and they’ll expect to continue their super strong home form on Saturday. Not since Sheffield United left with all three points in late October have West Brom suffered a loss in front of their own supporters? Since then it is nine wins and one draw, which is have proved vital given their recent struggles away from home.
Neil Warnock enjoyed something of an instant impact when overseeing a 3-2 victory over Birmingham in his first game back in charge, but they failed to kick on since then. An expected away loss to top team Burnley followed, but a 4-0 home setback to Coventry, followed by a midweek home draw to mid-table Bristol City will certainly have been viewed as winnable opportunities internally. Before the trip to Burnley, Warnock practically wrote off the game before turning up, and you wonder if he’ll have a similar approach here given how strong West Brom are at home. That being said, games are running out for them to overcome a six-point gap to fourth from the bottom.
As mentioned, WBA do have issues playing away at the moment and that’s proved by five straight defeats, but they don’t have to worry about that this weekend and will look to continue what they’re doing in the West Midlands. Despite their excellent recent run at home, they’ve only really comprehensively won a few of those games, including a cup tie to Chesterfield of The National League. Since that Sheff Utd defeat in October, only Blackburn has even scored against them at home, and even that was direct from a free kick.
Warnock is still trying to determine his best starting eleven and formation, whilst West Brom are more than settled in their 4-2-3-1 and have a largely settled team, which has been forced in a way by injuries. It will be a case of just getting the job done for the home side, and with Huddersfield winless on the road since Boxing Day I can’t see a shock result here. We’ll roll again with the stingy West Brom defence again and back them to win to nil at 23/20 from Coral. All bar one of their home league wins this season came without conceding.
James’ Tips
- Burnley v Wigan – Burnley Win To Nil (1/1 BetVictor)
- QPR v Watford – Watford (6/4 Betfred)
- Swansea v Middlesbrough – Chuba Akpom Anytime Goalscorer (7/4 Bet365)
- West Brom v Huddersfield – West Brom Win To Nil (23/20 Coral)
