This weekend’s EFL schedule throws up three strong betting angles, and with six winners from our last eight selections in this column, confidence is high that the data points us in the right direction again.
In the Championship, Coventry look well placed to keep their attacking momentum going when they travel to Sheffield Wednesday. The visitors have been relentless in chance creation and face a Wednesday side that continues to leak opportunities, making a win with at least two goals scored an obvious play.
Dropping into League Two, Swindon’s trip to Newport stands out for similar reasons. The Robins have been one of the most consistent attacking units in the division, averaging over two goals a game, while Newport’s defensive frailties have left them struggling near the bottom. With the visitors carrying both a high floor and strong ceiling in front of goal, backing them to score twice and covering them on the double chance offers good value.
Finally, at Ashton Gate, Bristol City and QPR look primed to serve up a high-event game where both sides should find the net. The data on xG, shots in the box and goals conceded all point in the same direction, with both teams to score landing in the vast majority of their recent fixtures. At current market prices, that outcome looks under-rated.
Together, the three fixtures highlight a common theme: backing reliable attacking sides against vulnerable defences, and targeting the clear statistical edge where the odds appear out of line with the evidence.
Sheffield Wednesday vs Coventry City
Coventry travel to Hillsborough on the back of some of the strongest underlying data in the Championship, and all signs point to them taking three points against Sheffield Wednesday, with the visitors well placed to score at least twice.
Coventry’s attacking numbers are unmatched in the division. They top the league for expected points and xG ratio, averaging over 2.1 xG per game away from home and 2.65 at home. Across the season they are generating 12.5 shots in the box per match and more than six shots on target, underlining the constant pressure they put on opposition defences. That level of output has already delivered big wins, including a 4-0 away victory at Millwall in midweek and a 7-1 home dismantling of QPR earlier in the campaign.
By contrast, Sheffield Wednesday are among the league’s weakest on the defensive metrics. They concede an average of 2.22 xGA at home and have one of the worst shots-on-target against ratios in the Championship. Their last four matches have seen them concede to Bristol City, Birmingham, Sheffield United and QPR, with no clean sheets in that run. Overall, they have allowed 15 goals across their last eight league games, and the data suggests that figure could easily have been higher given the volume of chances faced.
Coventry also have an advantage from set pieces, having generated 6.07 xG from dead-ball situations this season, while Wednesday have conceded over 5.0 xG from the same area, ranking among the most vulnerable sides. That gap in quality is likely to tell over ninety minutes.
With the visitors creating chances at a relentless rate and Wednesday struggling to cope defensively, Coventry look very well placed to win the game and score at least two goals in the process.
- Best Bet: Coventry win & over 1.5 goals at 3/4 with Boylesports
Newport County vs Swindon Town
Swindon look well placed to extend their strong start when they travel to Newport, and two angles stand out – backing them to score at least twice and covering them on the double chance.
The visitors have been one of League Two’s most dangerous attacking sides so far. They have scored 21 goals in their opening 10 matches, a return of over two per game. Their process backs it up too, sitting second in the division for non-penalty xG ratio at just over 60 percent. In their last eight fixtures, Swindon are averaging 1.22 xG created per game while hitting 5.2 shots on target and 7.6 shots inside the box on average. That consistency in the final third makes them one of the most reliable teams to find the net multiple times.
Newport, by contrast, have been among the poorest defensive units. They have already conceded 20 goals, the joint second worst in the division, while their underlying numbers show an xGA of 1.50 across the last eight games. At home they remain vulnerable, allowing more than nine shots inside the box per game and facing 13 big chances in that period. It is difficult to see them keeping Swindon quiet for long.
Even if the game turns scrappy, Swindon’s threat makes the double chance a sensible cover. They sit second in the table with seven wins from ten, while Newport have just one victory to their name all season. The home side have lost seven of their ten matches, and even when they have competed, the data shows they are consistently second best.
Given Swindon’s cutting edge and Newport’s defensive record, over 1.5 goals for the visitors and Swindon double chance both look strong options.
- Best Bet: Swindon over 1.5 goals & Swindon Double Chance at 8/11 with Bet365
Bristol City vs QPR
Both teams to score looks like the standout bet when Bristol City host QPR, and the underlying data makes a strong case that it offers value at current prices.
Bristol City have been one of the more open sides in the Championship so far. They have scored in six of their seven league games and conceded in six as well, with home matches particularly high event. Their numbers at Ashton Gate show 1.83 xG for and 2.23 xGA, pointing to chances at both ends whenever they play. QPR bring a similar profile. They have found the net in seven of eight league games this season and conceded in all but one. Their away numbers are almost a mirror image of City’s, with 1.57 xG created and 1.65 xGA allowed, underlining a lack of defensive stability but plenty of attacking punch.
When combining the two sides’ results, both teams have scored in 12 of their 15 league matches to date, an 80% hit rate. The market, however, prices both teams to score at 3/4, or 1.75 in decimal odds. That implies just a 57% chance of the bet landing. With recent data and performance levels pointing to probabilities closer to 70–75%, the discrepancy highlights clear value in backing goals at both ends.
Recent head-to-head meetings also support the angle, with the last three clashes producing both teams to score. Bristol City’s inability to keep clean sheets and QPR’s habit of both scoring and conceding means the pattern looks set to continue. At an implied probability of 57% against an evidence-based figure nearer to 75%, both teams to score represents one of the most appealing options on the Championship coupon this weekend.
- Best Bet: Both teams to score at 3/4 with BetTOM
Further Reading
- Wrexham vs Birmingham Prediction and Betting Tips
- Ipswich Town vs Norwich City Prediction and Betting Tips
- Brentford vs Manchester City Prediction and Betting Tips
- Chelsea vs Liverpool Prediction and Betting Tips
- Porto vs Benfica Prediction and Betting Tips
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