The EFL play-offs are here, and with promotion on the line, the tension and drama are guaranteed to ramp up. This weekend’s semi-final first legs across League One and League Two offer fascinating matchups, with tight margins and fine form lines to unpack. Wycombe host Charlton in what promises to be a cagey encounter between two defensively solid sides.
Chesterfield take on a struggling Walsall in a game where momentum is firmly with the hosts; and Stockport travel to Leyton Orient in arguably the most balanced tie of the lot, but one where the underlying metrics point clearly in one direction. We have broken down the data, recent form, and head-to-head records to identify the best betting angles across all three ties. From double chance markets to team goal picks, here’s where the value lies in the opening legs of the EFL play-offs.
Wycombe Wanderers vs Charlton Athletic
Sunday’s first leg at Adams Park promises a tense, tactical battle as Wycombe Wanderers host an in-form Charlton Athletic with a place in the League One play-off final at stake.
Wycombe boast a respectable home record (W12-D6-L5), built on a solid defensive foundation—just 35% of their home games have featured over 2.5 goals. They have kept 12 clean sheets, but their record against the league’s top sides is a major concern. Against top-six opposition, they have lost seven of nine, including defeats to all of the top four on home soil.
Charlton arrive with momentum firmly on their side. Under Nathan Jones, they have lost just one of their last eight, and striker Matt Godden is in lethal form with eight goals in his last ten games. More tellingly, the Addicks comfortably won both league meetings with Wycombe this season, scoring six and conceding just once.
The underlying metrics also paint a clear picture. Charlton are top in League One for non-penalty xG ratio and big chance ratio over the last eight matches, and second for xPTS across the last four. Only Birmingham and Stockport have taken more points over the last 20 games.
Wycombe, meanwhile, have scored just 18 in their last 20 games—only two teams have netted fewer—and their attacking output remains limited, ranking just 18th for big chance ratio.
With their form, firepower, and dominance in key metrics, Charlton look too well-drilled to lose this tie—and may well edge a typically cagey first leg.
- Best Bet: Charlton draw no bet (DNB) at 2.15 with William Hill
Chesterfield vs Walsall
The League Two play-off semi-final between Chesterfield and Walsall offers a compelling contrast between two sides arriving in very different form.
Chesterfield, managed by Paul Cook, are peaking at just the right time. They have lost only once in their last 13 matches, storming into the top seven after a mid-season lull. Their attacking output has been strong all season, with 73 goals scored – second only to Walsall’s 75. Over the last eight games, they rank third for xPTS and second for non-penalty xG ratio, averaging 1.81 xG per match.
At home, Chesterfield have been tough to beat (W10-D10-L3), with 61% of their matches seeing over 2.5 goals. They have failed to score in just two home games and kept six clean sheets. Crucially, they are unbeaten at home against top-seven opposition (W2-D3-L0), with both teams scoring in five of those contests.
Walsall, however, enter the play-offs in a prolonged dip. Since leading the table in January, they have won just three of their last 20. Losing top scorer Nathan Lowe mid-season has hurt them badly. Over their last four games, they rank 16th for xPTS and have scored just once in their last three. They have also conceded in 16 of their last 20.
That said, Walsall have been excellent against top sides, with a strong away record (W9-D8-L6), keeping 10 clean sheets and scoring in 11 of 12 games against the top seven. This tie could be closer than form suggests.
- Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals at 2.07 with Unibet
Leyton Orient vs Stockport County
Leyton Orient host Stockport County on Saturday in the first leg of the League One play-off semi-finals, with both sides entering the tie in decent form—but Stockport look the more reliable option on the night.
Orient surged into the play-offs with six consecutive wins, capped by a 4-1 victory over Huddersfield. Charlie Kelman (21 goals) and Jamie Donley (10 assists) have driven a dynamic attack, but there are reasons to be cautious. Their home record (W12-D4-L7) is solid but not dominant, and they have struggled against the league’s best—winning just three of 10 against the top six. Defensively, they have kept 13 clean sheets at Brisbane Road but have conceded against the top four. They have conceded 10 big chances in their last eight games. Underlying metrics back this dip, with Orient sitting just 12th for both xPTS and non-penalty xG ratio in that period.
Stockport, by contrast, are unbeaten in eight (W7-D1), finishing third in the table. Even after losing top scorer Louie Barry, they remain potent—Isaac Olaofe and Kyle Wootton have filled the void well. Crucially, they rank second for non-penalty xG ratio and fifth for xPTS across the last eight matches. Away from home, they have scored in 83% of games, failing to find the net just four times in 23. With seven clean sheets and just six defeats on the road, they are hard to beat.
- Best Bet: Stockport over 0 goals and Stockport double chance at 1.72 with Bet365
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