I like both teams to score here as we have two sides that have promotion aspirations meeting at Adams Park, in what should be an entertaining game.
The hosts under Gareth Ainsworth are a side that have a certain style and generally this has worked for them and given their budget, you can’t argue with the results.
I don’t think automatic promotion is out of the question for Wycombe and they will be looking for another three points here to aid them with their quest of a return to the Championship.
At home they have an impressive record with W8-D2-L2 scoring an average of 1.83 goals per game but have conceded 1.42 goals and they have struggled for clean sheets with just three at Adams Park this term. These have been against Gillingham, who sit 22nd, Bolton 18th and Lincoln with sit 16th.
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For a side that has an eye on automatic promotion their home defensive metrics are poor. Only one side concedes more shots on target in their home games than Wycombe. They have a xGA of 1.42 which sits them 16th and then they sit 19th for shots conceded, 19th for shots on target in the box conceded and 22nd for shots in the box conceded.
It's very poor for a side that sits just two points off the top of the table. It almost seems to be a case of we will score more than you, which is great for goal backers like ourselves.
Going forward the hosts are good. They have only failed to score in one home game which was a 1-0 defeat to Portsmouth, but they created 3.2 xG in that match. Their 1.91 xG is the 2nd highest in the league and they have scored two or more goals in 66.7% of their home games whilst generating a xG of 1.5 of more in also 66.7% of home games, so the goals have been deserved.
The hosts will line up in their usual 3-4-1-2 with Sam Vokes and Brandon Hanlan up top with Garath McCleary sat just behind and these will cause Oxford issues given their mixture of pace, power and creativity.
Oxford have been improving season on season and manager Karl Robinson has made it clear that he wants promotion this term.
They currently occupy the final play off stop but there are plenty of sides beneath them looking to leapfrog them. Accrington who sit 11th are only eight points behind them and will fancy their chances of putting together a run to catch Oxford. I don’t think they will come and park the bus and I am not sure they can afford to do so given the number of teams looking to take that play off spot away from them.
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The visitors have only kept one away clean sheet all season and that was in a 0-0 draw with Ipswich back in early November, in a game where Ipswich generated 0.99 xG. They have failed to score on three occasions, which means that both teams to score has landed in eight of their 11 away games so far.
With just one clean sheet for the visitors, we have to fancy Wycombe, who have scored in 11 of 12 home games, to get on the score sheet, which means we need to Oxford to find the net. The Us have the 4th highest away xG in the division with 1.39 per game, scoring 1.18 goals. I have them 3rd for shots, 4th for shots on target in the box and 4th for shots in the box. I have already highlighted Wycombe’s poor defensive metrics and therefore I feel that Oxford will generate chances and find a route to scoring.
Both teams to score has landed in a joint 69% of games, which would give us an implied decimal odds of 1.45 yet we can back this at 1.72 which would suggest a little bit of value.
EFL Bet of the Weekend
- Wycombe vs Oxford – Both teams to score 18/25 with Marathon Bet
