FOOTBALL can be a cruel game. I was looking at three winners in Sunday's Premier League matches before four late goals in the three matches handed me a trio of losers.
We all know football lasts 90 minutes (and more) so I can't complain but Man Utd's clincher, followed by Everton's comeback from the dead and Liverpool's late flurry left me relying on Real Betis and Napoli to score against Barcelona and Napoli respectively and thankfully that duo saved the day.
And I didn't know whether to salute Lionel Messi's record-breaking feat or simply chuck another bottle at the telly. I'd planned to put him to score first as the Super Single but there were doubts about whether he'd recover from an injury picked up against Benfica in midweek so I left him out.
Anyway today's another day and there are a few sides who catch the eye. I'll start with yesterday's nememis, the Premier League, and I've got to admit the fixture list has thrown up another tough game to call.
Fulham entertain Newcastle and to me it looks a draw or home win. With Fulham a best 1-1 with bet365 and Ladbrokes there is no value in the double chance so I'm taking a little risk on Martin Jol's men.
Bookies agree with that verdict because Alan Pardew’s men are as big as 3-1 at Betfred to pick up their first away victory of the campaign. Last Monday I backed against Newcastle and they ended a four-match losing streak with a 3-0 victory against Wigan but who knows what would have happened if their opponents hadn't been reduced to 10 men after 12 minutes.
I'm not sure if Newcastle would have won and until they get the likes of Johan Cabaye and Ryan Taylor back they could continue to struggle. Hatem Ben Arfa could be back but there is a slight doubt over Demba Ba who netted two against Wigan.
Fulham welcome back big centre-half Brede Hangeland and he's been a big miss. If Hangeland has an influential game at the back and Dimitar Berbatov does the business up front then Fulham could win this.
My one concern about Fulham is they haven't scored in three and are without a win in six but they have beaten Newcastle on four of their last five visits to Craven Cottage.
Berbatov is 5-1 (various) to score first and 6-4 at boylesports to notch at any time while Ba is 8-1 with Paddy Power if he makes the starting line-up. win
Both William Hill Scottish Cup ties between Cowdenbeath and St Johnstone and Dumbarton and Hamilton have been postponed and resheduled for later in the week.
There is one game in La Liga and I like the look of Rayo Vallecano at home to Real Zaragoza. Rayo have been superb at home and if you don't count defeats to Barcelona and Real Madrid have won four and drawn five.
Zaragoza on the other hand have picked up just one point in nine so I'll be on Rayo at 6-5 with Betfred and Paddy Power.
Rayo's games in La Liga this season have averaged 3.4 goals so over 3.5 has a chance at 21-10 with sportingbet. Both teams to score is also a possibility although Rayo's last four haven't brought up this market and it pays just 8-13 at William Hill.
There are also two games in Serie A with Sampdoria facing Udinese and Bologna taking on Lazio. Four of the past six Samp-Udinese meetings have been draws with three of them producing over 3.5 goals – two 2-2s and a 3-3.
Udinese have been up and down all season but one thing's been a constant – they've conceded 13 in six games and with Samp scoring in five of six the best bet could be both to net at 10-11 at William Hill.
Lazio are unbeaten in six as they push for a Champions League place and could edge a win at a Bologna side who look like they'll be fighting the drop this season. The Romans have won four of their last five in Serie A – the other result was a commendable draw against Juventus – so I'm considering them at 13-8 with William Hill.
There are a couple of big games in Russia – Rubin Kazan v Spartak Moscow and Zenit v Anzhi. Rubin should win while Zenit v Anzhi could be a cracker between two title contenders. In the two games I'm looking at both to score.
Recommendations
Berbatov to score
(6-4, Betfred)
Rayo Vallecano (8pm)
(6-5, Paddy Power, Betfred)
Lazio (8pm)
(13-8, William Hill)
Both teams to score treble
Zenit v Anzhi (4pm)
Sampdoria v Udinese (6pm)
Rayo Vallecano v Real Zaragoza (8pm)
Pays £55.90 to a £10 stake at bet365
Resident football tipster at Scotland's most read newspaper, the Daily Record, for over 20 years and proud host of one the best betting communities on the web with daily betting tips.
I looked at the scottish cup game tonight, but i try to stay clear of scottish football if i’m honest.
The 2 Italian games, both Bologna and Sampdoria have won the last 2 games at home, and lazio and udinese have no away form to go by at all.
Newcastle have not won an away game in the prem all season, so would expect a Fulham win.
Benfica are outstanding and on their away form should beat sporting quite easily and are good priced at evens.
I have gone for –
Berbatov (anytime) 11/8
Rubin Kazan 1/1
Zenit v Anzhi over 2.5 43/40
Benfica 1/1
My single bet –
Demba ba (anytime) 7/4
Chris, Benfica look a decent bet but I couldn’t believe the chances they missed against Barcalona. I’ll wonder if they’ll suffer a Champions League headache.
I wondered that with Celtic on saturday, i won’t touch scottish football, but know alot of people were talking about -1, -2 handicaps, and normally when Celtic win in the Champions league, they have lost in the scottish prem.
If i remember rightly the win against Barca, they then lost to Kilmarnock, and again the loss to Inverness in the league followed a result in the champions league.
Chris, I think quite rightly people were worried about Celtic at the weekend but with Euro football on the backburner till February watch them go now.
TREBLE
Zenit St Petersburg
A.E.L Limassol
Polonia Warsaw
SINGLE – Steaua Bucharest – Astra Ploiesti BTTS 1/1
BTTS
Aarhus-Silkeborg
Sampdoria-Udinese
Academica-Braga
Bologna-Lazio
Lisbon-Benfica
Superb Double –
Fulham 1/1
Benfica 1/1
Chris, you’ve just put me off by saying six horses could win it. Will probably take a wander down to the bookies on Boxing Day so you never know. But it’s mainly football for me.
What about braga and academia? You not like Portuguese liga?
Adam, looked at it but not convinced about Braga after three defeats in a row. Three of the last four meetings have been draws and I’d go draw or Academica plus one.
Lazio are unbeaten in 4 in the league, having lost to Catania 4-0 on the 4/11. AWAY form of D,L,L doesn’t do it for me, especially when Bologna are W,W,D at Home ! Also last 5 away games scored 3 let in 9 Lazio, where as Bologna have scored 11 and let in 5 at home !
To me Bologna v Lazio could go either way, and if having a bet i would be taking the home side ( Bologna ) !
Chris, it’s a tight call but for me Lazio are the better side. They’ve only played one away game in six and that was a 0-0 draw at Juventus. I don’t like to look much further back than that when considering form. Bologna’s recent home wins have been against Atalanta (not bad) Palermo (below them and with no away wins) and lower-league Livorno in cup. Let’s see how they do against a top-six side. This is no banker by any means but I can see Lazio winning by one.
Ahh cheers for the tip. You know Hamilton won’t be playing today? Pitches are frozen. Who would you substitute? Fulham to win ?
Adam, I’ve updated the piece. Had Hamilton as a single so won’t be replacing them. There are enough tips up for a Monday night. I’m edging towards Fulham but not convinced.
when does the Dumbarton v Hamilton game get replayed as I’m waiting on them for ma coupon to come up.
Stephen, pencilled in again for tomorrow but I’m not far away from Dumbarton and I’m looking out on a frozen wilderness. It’s about -5 just now so I’d be amazed if it went on. You can collect what you have won then decide to take it or put it all on (Hamilton I assume).
Bolognas recent form is good though!
Last 5 home games:
Beat Catania 4-0
Lost 3-1 to inter
Drew with udinese
Beat Atalanta and palermo
BOLOGNA HOME
Sun 30/09/12 SEA Bologna 4 – 0 Catania
Sun 28/10/12 SEA Bologna 1 – 3 Internazionale
Sun 04/11/12 SEA Bologna 1 – 1 Udinese
Sun 18/11/12 SEA Bologna 3 – 0 Palermo
Sun 02/12/12 SEA Bologna 2 – 1 Atalanta
LAZIO AWAY
Thu 25/10/12 UEL Panathinaikos 1 – 1 Lazio
Sun 28/10/12 SEA Fiorentina 2 – 0 Lazio
Sun 04/11/12 SEA Catania 4 – 0 Lazio
Sat 17/11/12 SEA Juventus 0 – 0 Lazio
Thu 06/12/12 UEL Maribor 1 – 4 Lazio
George, the beauty is no one knows who will win which is whay we all make predictions. Bologna beat a Catania side who haven’t won away and failed to beat teams above themin Inter and Udinese.
Chris, as I said my only doubt surrounds their finishing against Barca which was incredibly poor.
I’d leave Lazio alone personally.
Would have to be on Benfica
Form is outstanding, not lost a game in the league all season, will go top of the league with a 2 nil win !
I should have left stupid rubin Kazan alone !!
well………….. I have my single –
Demba Ba (anytime) 7/4
And my super double –
Benfica 1/1 bet365
Fulham 1/1 bet365
not going to say how much i put on it though, gone at it a few times though, befair have Fulham @11/10 and Benfica @5/4. Put more on it after Rubin Kazan lost, now its time to pray !
Chris, you could see from the Celtic game that Spartak have improved under Karpin. Players just weren’t doing it for Emery/
Good call on zenit anzi Mr fixit, every other time I’ve backed them it’s gone wrong way, roll on the rest
Rob, one down two to go. Quietly confident about them but we’ll see.
Fingers crossed. Got a cheeky treble on fulham lazio and chelmsford as well
Udinese bang one in, just need sampdoria to respond
Rob, that’s what I like to see a nice early goal.
Rob, Samp missed pen looks like it’s going to be costly.
have taken a major risk with both teams to score at 8/13 and also over 2.5 goals in Fulham v Newcastle match. both defences are not playing that great so hopefully we will see some goals.
Sampdoria defense looking awful
Rob, it’s their attack I’m worried about.
Can’t believe Sampdoria missed a penalty
Awful display from samdoria, disappointed with that. Fingers crossed for la liga to make a small profit
Rob, hate it when beaten by a missed pen but you’re right they were poor tonight.
Now that the BTTS is down the pan, I’ve put a double on Lazio/Benfica both to win, hopefully some profit today.
Paul I know its a but early days mate but what about Celtic vs Abroath. Wanyama 10/3 to score at anytime, Charlie Mulgrew 4/1 or Scott Brown at 6/1. I’m thinking about throwing a ton on Mulgrew with Scott Brown as a side bet.
Chris, it’s early days for me, need to get Tuesday out of the way first.
Looking good Chris! :D
Nice!! That’s a few quid in the kitty tonight! :)
FULHAM
BENFICA
LOVE ITTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT !!
Zenit and Anzhi both scored, so got to hand that one to Mr Fixit !
Ohhh yeaa, watched that game aswell, Anzhi were unlucky not to win.
Am not doubting Mr Fixit, he’s normally bang on or very close, just today’s not been good at all for him as I pointed out.
Adam, some results like Rayo didn’t go as expected. Learn to live with it or don’t bet, I’ve deleted your first comment because I can’t be bothered with that kind of stuff anymore.
Scott Brown should be on penalties with Commons out
Chris, might rest Brown with his injury problem. Need to keep an eye on that.
FA CUP TOMORROW
7.45 K/O
Hereford v Cheltenham
Hereford @2/1 look a great shout, Cheltenham have never beaten Hereford.
Valenciennes V PSG 6 k/o
Home form for Valenciennes is very good, haven’t lost a game this season at home in the league and only conceded 4 goals. PSG away form, lost the last one 2-1 to nice, I’m going to have ago at PSG @1/1, should have too much going forward for Valenciennes.
Newport V Luton 7.45 k/o
Thinking this has draw written all over it and @12/5 will be adding this to my treble.
HEREFORD 2/1
PSG 1/1
NEWPORT V LUTON Draw 12/5
SINGLE
Anderlecht – Anderlecht @15/8
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/scotland/20658607
Brilliant haha !
Chris, it’s a cracker.
Done nantes ,fulham ,st bucharest,braga, and lazio done it for £180, that’s 2 in a row now
Unlucky on the btts Mr fixit, was a good shout that should of come in. Never mind, there’s always tonight. Do people really think because you’re a tipster your selections have to win all the time?
Rob, yeah it seems like that sometimes. Unfortunately there are loads of games that can basically go either way and it would be easy to say “no bet” but I try to call some of them.. You saw the debate about Bologna v Lazio and it ends up a draw. I didn’t see anyone tipping against Rayo Vallecano but they lost and also failed to score. I read the match report and it said they had the majority of chances and were wasteful in front of goal and that happens. Their failure to net and Sampdoria’s penalty miss beat the btts and that’s how fine the margins are. I tipped Fulham to win and Berbatov to score and he should have but hit the keeper in a one on one and had another cleared off the line so close but no cigar.
Cheeky treble to start the day. . Bursapor, galatasary win edkisehirspor v kdc btts
Chris guy, got email from PP offering enhanced odds of mulgrew to score anytime and Celtic win from 9/2 to 6/1, Celtic won’t be resting many players as don’t need to but can see why brown would be rested, lennon won’t want to get put out Scottish cup by Arbroath after gettin thro to last 16 of champs league. I’ll be on the 6/1 tomorrow
William Hill email not PP