Champions League outright winner odds and prediction: Six-time winners offer betting bargain

With the qualifiers now completed, the UEFA Champions League outright winner odds market will be one of the most exciting and dynamic ones around.

It’s a new era in the competition’s rich and illustrious history, as 36 teams vie for 16 knockout round places in a single league table. It’s the biggest shake up in the UCL for more than two decades, and the impact on betting markets is clear to see.

That’s because the top-seeded sides no longer have the same degree of protection they used to. Under the previous format, top seeds (drawn from Pot 1) avoided each other until at least the knockout stage. Now they will face two such opponents in the UCL's new ‘league phase’.

So now is the time to study the latest Champions League outright winner odds and place your bets. Below, we’ve highlighted several teams that stand out as particularly tempting prospects and which ones to avoid backing.

Best Champions League outright winner odds – top 10 favourites

Teams to watch

Outright favourites

Getting the obvious out of the way first, it’s currently a toss-up between Manchester City and Real Madrid. With Erling Haaland and Kylian Mbappe as their respective talismans, it isn’t easy to see anyone withstanding either of those teams for long.

The latter stood alongside Bayern Munich’s main frontman, Harry Kane, atop the scoring charts in last season’s edition.

While their odds aren’t particularly emphatic or rewarding, there is scope for the competition to see more markets open up. One of the most popular, of course, is ‘guess the finalists’, and it seems almost fate at this point for the two clubs – each led out by their primary MVP – to meet in the greatest showpiece of all.

Contenders to avoid

First of all, it’s worth mentioning two teams that will likely fall short before the end.

Arsenal are third-favourites, with their odds being 10/1 prior to the league phase draw. If those odds are going to shorten any time soon, then extra depth is needed up front. At this point, it’s hard to see them getting beyond the semi-finals.

Bayern Munich come next, and their success in this competition will likely depend much on Kane's form and fitness. As indicated by Bayern losing the Bundesliga title to Bayer Leverkusen last term, despite the England international being the league’s top gun, an imbalance of services can only hinder a battle on two fronts.

That probably rules Bayern out as a worthwhile outside bet. However, the next two on the list – Liverpool and Barcelona – are certainly worth your attention.

High-value outsiders

Liverpool have been an enigmatic side in this competition. While they don’t have the same degree of composure you typically see from City or Real, the Reds have shown a tendency to come alive on European nights – especially at Anfield. That is most highly evidenced by their participation in three of a possible five UCL finals between 2018 and 2022.

Mohamed Salah was a significant force behind that purple patch Liverpool enjoyed under Jurgen Klopp at the peak of that era. He’s netted 41 times in just 33 UCL appearances for the Reds. He may not have the same levels of stamina from those days, but he’s a born winner with every chance of making an impact from the bench if he doesn’t start too many UCL games.

As for Barcelona, they have an intriguing blend of youth and experience in the final third, with Robert Lewandowski set to combine alongside teenage star Lamine Yamal, who has the potential to cause incredible anguish for opponents out wide. A European champion with Spain at the tender age of 17, he’s no stranger to high-pressure situations, of which there will surely be many in the latter stages of the UCL.

Long shots

Of those that commanded odds of 25/1 or greater before the league phase draw, Inter Milan stand out massively. They are three-time winners and were finalists only in 2023, though it’s been 14 years since they last lifted the trophy. Those are surprisingly long odds for a side that boasts the firepower of Marcus Thuram and Lautaro Martinez.

Beyond that, it gets into unrealistic territory. However, it’s intriguing that Red Bull Leipzig stand at 66/1 with some bookmakers, despite being amongst the top seeds. There’s real attacking potential there, with Euro 2024 Young Player of the Tournament award nominee Xavi Simons on loan from PSG, and set to play alongside Benjamin Sesko, who has been linked to several big clubs over the summer transfer window.

Trends to watch

People who want to place bets on the Champions League, whether it be in outright or matchday markets, can see some trends from this list of winners, which may prove useful:

Three is the magic number

The previous UCL campaign saw an average of exactly three goals per-match. Meanwhile, the two campaigns before that saw a total average within 0.5 of that figure. This suggests that total goal selections in the 2-3 range will be as popular as ever in 2024/25, though naturally there will be an erring towards 3-4 for games which see any of the top 10 favourites listed earlier take on a team drawn from Pot 4.

Speaking of goals, seven out of the last nine UCL editions have seen the top scorer net 12+ times.

England and Spain reign

Ten of the last 11 UCL editions have seen a winner from the Premier League or La Liga. Bayern Munich’s win of 2020 – under less conventional circumstances than normal due to COVID – is the anomaly there. And Porto’s success of 2004 remains the only time this century that a team not playing in the traditional top five of European domestic leagues has lifted the trophy.

No love lost between compatriots

For the benefit of those interested in the ‘guess the finalists’ market, finals in which the two teams are from the same country are not a particularly common occurrence. That said, the last two times date back only to 2019 and 2021, with both finals being all-English ones.

Strike hard, strike fast

The respective triumphs for Liverpool and Chelsea in those years also contribute to an interesting trend, where the last six UCL finals have been won to-nil. That no doubt reflects the tendency for games to be more closed up and tense the further along the knockout stage the tournament progresses. Indeed, 2014 remains the last time that the team scoring first did not go on to lift the trophy.

Our prediction

Ultimately, this is Real’s competition to lose, though an each-way bet on Liverpool (or around 7/1 on them to reach the final) looks like it could be a smart move.

And while City may seem like Real's only real rivals in the early outright stakes, there is also the matter of a potential Premier League points deduction for the Sky Blues, as a case against them for financial breaches unfolds.

If a deduction does come to pass, it can only have a negative psychological effect in all competitions, especially if the punishment is severe enough to make relegation a real threat.

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