Champions League outright winner odds and prediction: Record winners still enticing at 9/2

As ever, the UEFA Champions League outright winner odds market is one of the most exciting and dynamic ones around.

So now is the time to study the latest Champions League outright winner odds and place your bets. Below, we’ve highlighted several teams that stand out as particularly tempting prospects.

Best Champions League outright winner odds – top 10 favourites

Current favourites

Liverpool

Having topped the inaugural Champions League full-team group stage, Arne Slot's Liverpool have been given a difficult Round-of-16 draw against PSG. Having finished 15th in the table, many would have felt this was an easy two-leg fixture for the Reds, but supporters' may be more wary of the French champions after seeing their results against Brest.

A 10-0 aggregate win over their compatriots meant that Luis Enrique's side came away from their extra round with a renewed confidence going into PSG's games against the current Premier League leaders. However, having scored 17 times and conceded just five goals in their eight Champions League fixtures so far, it is safe to say Liverpool will be an entirely different prospect for Enrique's men. PSG only had a 50% win rate in the league stage, struggling heavily against teams of a similar ilk.

Now, bookies see Liverpool as third favourites for the Champions League, with easier fixtures for Barcelona and Real Madrid seeing their odds shorten. 11/2 is the bookmakers' best price for Slot's side, which could still give a good return on investment if they can see themselves past the French giants.

Real Madrid

A 6-3 aggregate victory over Manchester City saw previously disappointing Real Madrid surge into the Round of 16 of the Champions League at a stage where the second leg really could have gone either way.

After a narrow 3-2 away victory in the first game, it was star summer signing Kylian Mbappe who stepped up at the Bernabeu, grabbing an incredible hat-trick to cement Los Blancos' place in the next round and knock out the 2022/23 champions.

A last-minute goal from Nico Gonazalez acted as merely a consolation for a deflated City side.

Madrid have been given a local derby for their troubles in the next round, with a home fixture against Atletico up next. Seen as an easier game than Liverpool's, Madrid are now priced at 9/2 to win the entire competition.

Barcelona

After the Catalan giants finished the league phase as Liverpool's closest adversaries on 19 points, they thus should also be considered one of the strongest teams going into the knockouts. Unlike historic rivals Madrid, they did not have to play an extra fixture in order to qualify for the Round of 16.

Robert Lewandowski and Raphinha were the stars of Barcelona's group stage, as Hansi Flick's renewed Barca team cruised into the top eight and established themselves as genuine contenders to win their first Champions League for a decade.

The club has also been given what many would view as a lucky draw for the next stage, with Portuguese side Benfica their adversaries. While no pushover, the club are certainly less powerful than either Atletico Madrid or PSG, and thus Barca's odds of 9/2 to win the competition seem fair at present.

Trends to watch

People who want to place bets on the Champions League, whether it be in outright or matchday markets, can see some trends from this list of winners, which may prove useful:

Three is the magic number

The previous UCL campaign saw an average of exactly three goals per match. Meanwhile, the two campaigns before that saw a total average within 0.5 of that figure. This suggests that total goal selections in the 2-3 range will be as popular as ever in 2024/25, though naturally, there will be an erring towards 3-4 for games in which any of the top 10 favourites listed earlier take on a team drawn from Pot 4.

Speaking of goals, seven out of the last nine UCL editions have seen the top scorer net 12+ times.

England and Spain reign

Ten of the last 11 UCL editions have seen a winner from the Premier League or La Liga. Bayern Munich’s win of 2020 – under less conventional circumstances than normal due to COVID – is the anomaly there. And Porto’s success of 2004 remains the only time this century that a team not playing in the traditional top five of European domestic leagues has lifted the trophy.

No love lost between compatriots

For the benefit of those interested in the ‘guess the finalists’ market, finals in which the two teams are from the same country are not a particularly common occurrence. That said, the last two times date back only to 2019 and 2021, with both finals being all-English ones.

Strike hard, strike fast

The respective triumphs for Liverpool and Chelsea in those years also contribute to an interesting trend: the last six UCL finals have been won to nil. That no doubt reflects the tendency for games to be more closed up and tense the further along the knockout stage the tournament progresses. Indeed, 2014 remains the last time that the team scoring first did not go on to lift the trophy.

Our prediction

This is Real’s competition to lose, and simply put, they're our pick. However, an each-way bet on Liverpool (or around 5/1 on them to reach the final) looks like it could be a smart move at around the same price.

🔗 Share on Social Media