Champions League outright winner odds and prediction: Record winners still enticing at 9/2

As ever, the UEFA Champions League outright winner odds market is one of the most exciting and dynamic ones around.

So now is the time to study the latest Champions League outright winner odds and place your bets. Below, we’ve highlighted several teams that stand out as particularly tempting prospects.

Best Champions League outright winner odds – top 10 favourites

Current favourites

Liverpool

Having topped the inaugural Champions League full-team group stage, Arne Slot's Liverpool had been given a difficult Round-of-16 draw against PSG. Having finished 15th in the table, many would have felt this was an easy two-leg fixture for the Reds, but supporters' may be more wary of the French champions after observing the first leg.

Liverpool came away with a completely undeserved 1-0 victory away from home, as Harvey Elliott's 87th-minute strike earned them an important result. The Reds were completely dominated by the French giants, who had 70% possession and 27 shots in the game.

However, after their incredible stroke of luck, fans may be more confident of Liverpool getting a result at Anfield. Yet, based on the first leg, the game is set up to be less than simple for the Premier League leaders. Bookies have Liverpool priced at 9/2 to win the Champions League, as they look considerably more shaky since topping the inaugural league phase.

Real Madrid

Real Madrid are priced at 11/2 to win the Champions League after their home leg against bitter rivals Atletico Madrid finished in a 2-1 victory. Goals from Brahim Diaz and Rodrygo were enough for the win, but the second leg will be a tough fixture, with Diego Simeone's side particularly strong at home.

The club have not lost a single league game at home this season, with their only defeat at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano coming in a 3-1 loss to Lille.

It is tough to gauge whether Los Blancos will be able to overcome Simeone's men, but 11/2 are the longest odds Madrid have had this campaign, and thus bettors should take advantage of this quickly if they are confident Carlo Ancelotti's side can get the job done.

Barcelona

Barcelona are the current favourites for the Champions League after their first leg against Benfica ended in a 1-0 victory. A 61st-minute strike from Brazilian winger Raphinha was enough for an away victory and an important step towards qualification for the next round.

Barcelona will enter the second leg with high confidence levels, as they return to Camp Nou already in front in the tie.

The former Leeds man in particular has been incredible in the competition so far, with nine goals and four assists in nine matches, and he will be hoping to add to his tally in the return fixture.

Trends to watch

People who want to place bets on the Champions League, whether it be in outright or matchday markets, can see some trends from this list of winners, which may prove useful:

Three is the magic number

The previous UCL campaign saw an average of exactly three goals per match. Meanwhile, the two campaigns before that saw a total average within 0.5 of that figure. This suggests that total goal selections in the 2-3 range will be as popular as ever in 2024/25, though naturally, there will be an erring towards 3-4 for games in which any of the top 10 favourites listed earlier take on a team drawn from Pot 4.

Speaking of goals, seven out of the last nine UCL editions have seen the top scorer net 12+ times.

England and Spain reign

Ten of the last 11 UCL editions have seen a winner from the Premier League or La Liga. Bayern Munich’s win of 2020 – under less conventional circumstances than normal due to COVID – is the anomaly there. And Porto’s success of 2004 remains the only time this century that a team not playing in the traditional top five of European domestic leagues has lifted the trophy.

No love lost between compatriots

For the benefit of those interested in the ‘guess the finalists’ market, finals in which the two teams are from the same country are not a particularly common occurrence. That said, the last two times date back only to 2019 and 2021, with both finals being all-English ones.

Strike hard, strike fast

The respective triumphs for Liverpool and Chelsea in those years also contribute to an interesting trend: the last six UCL finals have been won to nil. That no doubt reflects the tendency for games to be more closed up and tense the further along the knockout stage the tournament progresses. Indeed, 2014 remains the last time that the team scoring first did not go on to lift the trophy.

Our prediction

This is Real’s competition to lose, and simply put, they're our pick. However, an each-way bet on Liverpool (or around 5/1 on them to reach the final) looks like it could be a smart move at around the same price.

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