Champions League outright winner odds and prediction: PSG favoured to finally lift the trophy

As ever, the UEFA Champions League outright winner odds market is one of the most exciting and dynamic ones around, but with only two teams left standing this season it's clear who is the favourite going into the big final.

So now is the time to study the latest Champions League outright winner odds and place your bets.

Best Champions League outright winner odds

Current favourites

PSG

The Parisians will have another chance to win the Champions League for the first time after they've reached their second-ever finals. Their previous appearance in the UCL final in 2020 has ended in a rather uneventful 1-0 loss to Bayern Munich, but PSG are the clear favourites to win the trophy now with 4/6 odds.

PSG have been quite confident in their run to the final, at least from the start of the knockout stages where they've managed to eliminate three Premier League teams, including the new English champions Liverpool.

If they manage to beat Inter Milan in the final, that will be the third trophy for PSG this season in addition to Ligue 1 and the French Super Cup, while they also have a Coupe de France final against Reims to look forward to.

Inter Milan

The Italian champions have reached the UCL final after an unforgettable semi-final tie with Barcelona, which Inter Milan have won 7-6 on aggregate. It was a festival of goals and excitement, in which Inter looked defeated after going one goal down in the 87th minute of the second leg, but a late equaliser from Francesco Acerbi kept them in the game, followed by a Davide Frattesi's winner in overtime.

Neroazzuri enter the final of the competition as the outsiders with 7/5 odds, but a team that eliminated Bayern Munich and Barcelona in the knockout stages can't be written off.

Inter Milan are still in the race for another Serie A title, although they are trailing behind Napoli as they try to defend their title. They also lost in Coppa Italia semi-final to AC Milan.

Trends to watch

People who want to place bets on the Champions League, whether it be in outright or matchday markets, can see some trends from this list of winners, which may prove useful:

Three is the magic number

The previous UCL campaign saw an average of exactly three goals per match. Meanwhile, the two campaigns before that saw a total average within 0.5 of that figure. This season the teams were even more efficient with 3.26 goals per match.

Speaking of goals, seven out of the previous nine UCL editions have seen the top scorer net 12+ times and this season we saw it once again, with both Raphinha and Guirassy scoring 13 goals.

England and Spain reign

Ten of the last 11 UCL editions have seen a winner from the Premier League or La Liga. Bayern Munich’s win of 2020 – under less conventional circumstances than normal due to COVID – is the anomaly there. This season we will also see a winner from another country, either France or Italy.

Meanwhile, Porto’s success of 2004 will remain the only time this century that a team not playing in the traditional top five of European domestic leagues has lifted the trophy.

No love lost between compatriots

For the benefit of those interested in the ‘guess the finalists’ market, finals in which the two teams are from the same country are not a particularly common occurrence, which was proven right once again this season.

That said, the last two times date back only to 2019 and 2021, with both finals being all-English ones.

Strike hard, strike fast

The respective triumphs for Liverpool and Chelsea in those years also contribute to an interesting trend: the last six UCL finals have been won to nil. That no doubt reflects the tendency for games to be more closed up and tense the further along the knockout stage the tournament progresses.

Indeed, 2014 remains the last time that the team scoring first did not go on to lift the trophy.

Our prediction

PSG have arguably been the best team in the Champions League this season, and while they've been through their share of heartbreak in this competition in previous years, we expect the Parisians to become European champions for the first time in the club's history.

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