I'M staying away from the racing thread at the moment but I assume there was a bit of love in the air after Johnb's nap won.
He tipped Winter Queen at 2-1 in the 7.25 at Kempton and must feel like a king for the day after his recent trials and tribulations.
The good news for his followers is he feels Thursday's pick is an even stronger while for his NB he is going against the 2-5 favourite even though the favourite has the best recent form. Must make sense to our man.
Johnb's Thursdays Tips
Movementneverlies 7-2 Bet365
Ffos Las 4.35
William Hogarth 11-10 NAP Bet365
Amroth Bay 7-2 NB Bet365
William Hogarth (NAP)
Today's Nap looks good in every sense. Last time out was his first run under trainer Brian Ellison & although well backed that day was still a decent 2nd although he really should have won but was given a lot to do by the jockey.
William Hogarth that day was also running over a distance that was too short & today's extra 4f is just what's needed. William Hogarth was rated 130 over hurdles 3 years ago & when last seen over hurdles he was down to 92 but with only a rating of 45 on the flat today he should take all the beating in what is a very weak race.
I am also taking into account this horse improving & some might find it strange a 9 year old can improve but it's all down to the trainer. In Brian Ellison we have a trainer who can get more out of horse when they first move to his yard.
He gets a lot of horses that are running bad & he is a master at transforming them. We also have Richard Hughes on board & it's an eyecatching booking that doesn't happen often.
All in all with William Hogarth we have a horse on a mark of 45 on softish ground at 1 mile 4 furlongs. With Hughes riding in a weak race this has to be William Hogarth's best chance yet & it would be a major shock if this horse didn't win – but shocks do happen.
Good luck everyone.