IT looked so good for much of the night but in the end we were hit by a B sting as Barcelona were pegged back at the death. The only consolation was both teams scored in an overs match – and Bayern Munich won too.
Tonight's it's Malaga v Borussia Dortmund and Real Madrid v Galatasaray for a second helping of Champions League football.
The Real game is an easy call and it's a matter of how many the Spaniards will win by. Malaga-Dortmund is tougher and although I'll be on the Germans to qualify they may have to settle for a first-leg draw.
I tipped Lionel Messi to score first last night at 3-1 and will be on Cristiano Ronaldo on Wednesday although I'm struggling to see bigger than 2-1.
There is an SPL between Killie and St Mirren and Div Two match featuring Arbroath v Stenny – and at first glance both look home wins.
However, any suggestions on the more obscure sides will be welcome. But leave out Molde, Copenhagen, Lusthausen etc etc.
All my top tips will be up in the morning … after the dug is walked.
Resident football tipster at Scotland's most read newspaper, the Daily Record, for over 20 years and proud host of one the best betting communities on the web with daily betting tips.
Wednesday’s Champions League quarter-finals…
Malaga v Borussia Dortmund, Wednesday 19:45, Sky Sports 4
Against all the odds, in their debut season Malaga have battled their way through to the quarter finals and have set up a clash with the German champions. They beat Zenit St Petersburg and AC Milan at La Rosaleda in the group stage. Defeat in the first leg at Porto was the first defeat in nine Champions League matches for Malaga.
Malaga’s league form has dropped off in recent weeks, with their win over Rayo this weekend their first in their last 5 games. The reason could be that the Spanish side will be banned from European competition next season due to financial problems.
Duda and Ignacio Camacho are back from domestic suspension while Vitorino Antunes will continue at left-back in the place of long-term injury victim, Eliseu, who is their only major absence.
Dortmund have quietly been impressive throughout this year’s competition and are so far unbeaten and they are making a serious fist of a tilt at the Champions League. This is entirely justified based on their results so far with wins over Real Madrid and Manchester City in the early stages before a comfortable dismissal of Shakhtar Donetsk in the last 16.
Anyway, Dortmund haven’t been unstoppable on the road either with a very late winner needed against ten man Stuttgart on Saturday. Before that they had lost to Schalke and drawn with Monchengladbach
Jurgen Klopp opted to field his strongest side in weekend’s match against Stuttgart, and that decision almost came back to haunt him as a number of players picked up knocks in the process. Mats Hummels is the only real injury worry for the German side, and he is unlikely to return in time to play here. Marcel Schmelzer, Jakub Blaszczykowski, Sven Bender and Lukasz Piszczek should all be in the starting line-up.
Borussia Dortmund have scored at least 2 goals in 5 of their last 6 matches in the Champions League and there have been over 2.5 goals scored in 5 of Borussia Dortmund’s last 6 european games
Blaszczykowski anytime goalscorer @ 4.00
Over 2.5 goals @ 2.01
Malaga are the only team yet to concede a first-half goal in the Champions League this season
Malaga have built their campaign on a solid defence to reach the last eight of Europe’s elite club tournament. The Spaniards’ 2-0 second-leg triumph over Porto in the round-of-16 represented their fourth home clean sheet in five in the competition. Manuel Pellegrini’s men are certainly solid first-half performers too, having only been behind once at half-time in their last 13 games in all competitions, going in level in seven of the last ten.
Recommended Bet: Back the half-time draw @ 2.22
Borussia Dortmund are one of two teams unbeaten in the Champions League this season with Juventus
Pellegrini’s side are very strong at their Rosaleda home, having recorded six wins and three draws from their previous nine European games there. They will be trying desperately to take an advantage back to Germany, but it won’t be easy against the 1997 champions, who remain undefeated to this point, having already secured three away draws in the competition, including one at the Bernabeu.
Recommended Bet: Back the draw @ 3.5
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Santiago Bernabeu
Wednesday 19:45 (Live on Sky Sports 2)
Real 1.18 Galatasaray 20.0 draw 9.0
Match Odds
Jose Mourinho has won 13/16 European home games as Real Madrid coach. As anyone’s boss, he’s won 6/6 Champions League quarter-finals.
Fatih Terim’s Galatasaray have won 3/4 on the road in Europe this season, but Cluj, Braga and Schalke are not in Real’s class. Manchester United might be – and Galatasaray lost 1-0 to them at Old Trafford in September.
The visitors have been blustering about wanting to ‘play football’ at the Bernabeu. If they are true to the cliche, and start Albert Riera at left-back again, Real should find the space and time to seriously dent their chances of causing an upset over the two legs.
Instead of the 1.19 about a straight home win, consider the longer prices on Real to be ahead at half-time and full-time, and to score in both halves.
The Blancos have struck before half-time in 16/18 Champions League and La Liga games at the Bernabeu this season, while Galatasaray have conceded prior to the break in 3/4 European away matches.
Mourinho’s charges have scored before and after the interval in 13/18.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
A brief swoop into history reveals that quarter-final first legs are not as tight on goals as you might imagine: since the 2003/04 format change 19/36 Champions League quarter-final first legs have produced Over 2.5 Goals.
That’s probably the way this one will go too, but 1.36 is not a price to get excited about.
Both Teams to Score?
In the last 12 months, backing Both Teams to Score has been the right thing to do in 11/11 Champions League games involving Real.
Worried their defence might be more formidable at the Bernabeu? Both teams have scored in each of Real’s last eight Champions League home games.
Galatasaray, who will start with the competition’s joint top-scorer Burak Yilmaz upfront, have found the net eight times in four CL away games this season.
Alongside Yilmaz there should be Dider Drogba. He’s taken a while to get up to speed after a sojourn in China, but still looks just the player to exploit Real’s frailties at set pieces.
After all that, there are layers who think someone will probably keep a clean sheet.
First Goalscorer
Cristiano Ronaldo is the leading man on Wednesday night. You knew that, but did you know he’s scored almost half of all Real’s goals in 2013 (21/44). 4.0 is a tempting price. All the more so because Higuain and Benzema have just eight goals in 24 appearances this year.
Sergio Ramos is as trigger happy as the Portuguese, and could be a threat in this market. He’s aggressive at attacking set pieces and it came out last week that he’d had more strikes at goal than any other Spaniard in World Cup 2014 qualifiers. With six goals in 26 appearances for club and country, 25.0 appeals – and so would 9.0 To Score anytime.
Best Bet
Back Both Teams to Score @ 2.02
Recommended Bet
Back Cristiano Ronaldo First Goalscorer @ 4.0
Real Madrid have failed to keep a clean sheet in the Champions League this season (11 goals conceded); the Merengues have the worst defensive record among the eight teams left in the competition this season
Unlike his Chelsea or Inter teams of the past, this Jose Mourinho side is built around attacking flair over defensive solidarity. Real’s play is all about scoring, which often brings about an overcommitment going forward and conceding goals on the break as result. Outscoring their opponents may work fine in the La Liga but, with the added element of the away goals rule, it’s a risky style to adopt on the continent.
Recommended Bet: Back Galatasaray to score a goal @ 1.84
Real Madrid have only failed to score once in their last 33 Champions League games, against Barcelona at the Bernabeu in April 2011
On the plus side for Los Blancos is their ability to find the net with consummate ease, highlighted by their 2.5-goal average at the Bernabeu in the Champions League this season. Of course, any team which boast Cristiano Ronaldo in their ranks is guaranteed a healthy looking goals-for column. Alongside his opponent Burak Yilmaz of visiting Galatasaray, Ronaldo has top scored in the tournament on eight goals to this point. The Portuguese has also bagged the last goal of the game on four occasions in this season’s competition.
Recommended Bet: Back Cristiano Ronaldo to score last @ 3.25
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This season has seen the scrap to avoid relegation embroil a much larger spread of teams than normal across each English division.
Premier League
Prospects now look increasingly grim for Reading and QPR following critical defeats over Easter. The bottom two are cut seven points adrift of Aston Villa in 18th, residing on 23 points apiece. However, there are still only six points separating Villa from West Ham, a full seven places ahead of the midlanders, bringing numerous other sides into contention for the drop. Heading firmly in the wrong direction are Paolo Di Canio’s new side Sunderland, who’ve not won in eight games, losing five of those. The Black Cats are 3.15 for the drop.
Championship
Equally as intriguing is the battle to stay in the second tier with a similarly concertinaed looking table in the Championship. There are just ten points between basement boys Bristol City on 40, right up to Blackpool in 15th, with no fewer than four clubs locked on 47. The last of the quartet is Huddersfield, who are currently occupying the last relegation spot – two points clear of Peterborough. Heading up that precariously-placed pack on 47 is Blackburn, who are in all kinds of trouble, without a win in nine league games and priced at 6.0 to go down.
League One
Bury and Hartlepool’s hopes are not looking good in the third tier, seven and eight points adrift respectively, while Portsmouth’s revival is likely to be in vain with another point deduction due. However, after those clubs, the final trapdoor spot is far from being decided with any one of Colchester, Oldham and Scunthorpe extremely vulnerable to a divisional drop. Nevertheless, five losses from their last six games makes Scunny prime candidates to be plying their trade in League Two next season and you can get the Lincolnshire side at 1.57.
League Two
Probably the most fascinating scrap in the top four divisions is raging in League Two, with just four points dividing bottom side Aldershot and Dagenham and Redbridge, seven places above in 17th. The Devon duo of Torquay and Plymouth are in big trouble, currently locked on 46 points each in the places directly above the two relegation spots. However, with Monday’s win over Plymouth being York’s first in 17 league games, the rot may be too deep for York, currently available at 2.1 to go down.
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Kolkata Knight Riders v Delhi Daredevils
Start time: 14.30GMT
TV: live on ITV4
Kolkata
The champions begin the defence of their crown with the aim of emulating the Chennai Super Kings who won back-to-back tournaments from 2010. Their gun player is Sunil Narine, who was the second-highest wicket-taker last season. KKR must do without Brendon McCullum and James Pattinson for the opener, however. McCullum has a hamstring niggle and Pattinson is resting. Both have yet to join up with the squad. England’s Eoin Morgan could replace McCullum.
Delhi Daredevils
Delhi topped the points table last season but failed to make the final. Indeed, they have never made the last two and are considered to be the IPL’s biggest underachievers. They are not at their strongest for this one. Kevin Pietersen has been ruled out for the tournament and Jesse Ryder, the Kiwi hitter, will probably join him after being assaulted in New Zealand. They have signed the New South Wales captain and left-hand batsman Ben Rohrer as a replacement for Ryder. Much relies on the batting prowess of Mahela Jaywardene, Virender Sehwag and David Warner. Varun Aaron, the impressive young pacer, is out for the season with a stress fracture.
First-innings runs
Here are the first-innings scores from full 20-over knocks in 2012 at Eden Gardens: 131-134-190-150-181-158. That is an average of 157. There is the potential for rain, however, just like this fixture last season. It may pay to go under 150.
Match odds
Kolkata enjoyed two victories out of three last year in the head-to-head, including a win in the first qualifying match. They are 1.90 to get their campaign off to a fast start and that looks pretty good value considering Delhi are not at their strongest. Their bowling looks a little weak. Ashish Nehra, Umesh Yadav and Irfan Pathan are only just feeling their way back after injury. Delhi are 2.06. Jaywardene has also been struggling with an injury. Normally we would advise picking the outsiders with rain around but KKR should be about 1.80 here.
Top Kolkata runscorer
Yusuf pathan top scored in the last meeting between these two and goes off at around 7.00. Gautam Gambhir and Jacques Kallis are the two vying for favouritism at 3.50 and 4.00 respectively. Morgan is 5.00.
Top Delhi runscorer
Expect a Delhi top three of Jayawardene-Warner-Sehwag. With the latter two both trading sub 4.00 it is clear Jayawardene is the value at 4.70 if he opens the batting as we suspect he will.
Recommended bet
KKR at 1.90
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Milesey ( betfair )
Any bets on the Copa Libertadores tonight, Guido?
I was considering Palmeiras but apparently they have an injury crisis.
Bryan for a bit of value (only if it wins of course) an Argie double appeals of Velez 10/11 and Tigre 16/5 ..singles/double. Two nice teams and Palmeira now in the 2nd tier of Brazillian fitba tho stil have some nice players..Emelec at home as well maybe??
Just gonna stick with the corners Guido — over 10.5 EVENS.
really fancy score draw for malaga, borussia tommorow
Single – Anytime Goal Scorer Isco (Malaga)
Serbia Treble
Rad Beograd – Vojvodina – Crvena Zvezda
Belgian/Czech Double
Woulwe – Liberec
Score In Both Halves Double
Real Madrid – Porto
Both 2 Score 4 Fold
Falkenbergs – Orgryte
Helsingborg – Goteborg
Sampdoria – Inter
Heist – Roeselare
I’m going to take Emelec at tonight. They have lost their two away games in the group but are strong at home where they have already beat Velez Sarsfield.
Watching the Garcilaso game at the moment. 0:0 at half time and pretty even but going to take them to win @ 11/10. Think they can nick it.
Sunnyhillboy for Grand National for me.
I have a dog called Sunny, I stay up a hill and he is a boy. That’s good enough reason ain’t it. Get on.
yav been quiet Chris?..where ya been?
Chris, brilliant thinking. I have a dog called Milly, stay up a hill and she’s a girl. Sadly for me Millyhillgirl isn’t running this year. Were you not on Messi last night? I see Milesey’s making a case for Ramos goal tonight – that’s right up your street.
ATTENTION TO ALL THAT ARE OR ARE THINKING ABOUT BACKING WHITE STAR WOLUWE AGAINST OUDENAARDE
While on paper Woluwe look like an excellent bet at a great price, I’m sorry to say, Woluwe have hit financial problems and that will have a significant impact on this game and possibly the outcome of the match. Most of the Woluwe squad went on strike last week, as they haven’t been paid for three months! As a result, most players have decided quite rightly not to play and now the starting eleven consists of mainly youth players and two or three senior players who have decided to keep playing.
They fielded what was essentially a youth team in their 3-0 defeat to FC Brussels – who are 15th in the league, and quite frankly the scoreline should have been greater as the home side failed to score two penalties. Today they host bottom side Oudenaarde. They thoroughly deserve to be bottom as they are pretty awful – lost 11 and drawn 1 of their last 12 games. Having said that, they were very unlucky not to win a point at Borinage after they concede in injury time. Woluwe look like they have secured their play off place, so with so little to play for and the fact the players at the club haven’t been paid in months, It’s difficult to see how they can go into this game with any purpose and motivation to grab the three points.
Wish I read this last night. I placed a large single bet on them to win assuming their price would drop given the dire opposition. I just need to hope that Oudenaarde are that awful that they lose!
Dean, OK thanks for the heads up about Woluwe.
I did tip Woluew to win in yesterdays football thread and I apologise if anyone backed them based on what I had wrote. While I did search for team news prior to tipping them, I never came across anything which suggested Woluwe are in trouble. There are a few articles to be found if you are putting in key words such as ‘Crisis’ Financial’ ‘Strike’ in Google along with Woluwe but then even those articles are in French, so you have to translate that too.
I included them in a double with Brechin, so I’ve put most of the expected profit on Oudenaarde draw or win so I’ll make a very small profit regardless of who wins but needless to say I’m slightly cheesed off that my profit has gone on hedging and just basically covering my arse.
Prior to being taught about Woluwes demise, I was about to place another bet on Woluwe to win to nil as it seemed very attractive at 3.1, but I read a reply from someone who had informed a poster over at Bettingkingdom who also tipped Woluwe, that it should be avoided.
I did bet on them Dean but I didn’t even know you had tipped them so it is my own fault! I thought 8/11 was amazing odds so backed them last night in the belief they would be heavily backed today and the price would get even tighter. Instead, I have found that it has risen and they are now 5/6 to win.
I’ve emailed Soccer Vista as they have Woluwe as their bet of the day. I’m sure there will be quite a few people backing Woluwe based on the stats and form guides unaware that they are essentially backing a youth team. The average age of the players who started in the 3-0 defeat to Brussels in their last match was just 18!
So the tip of the day back the draw or the away team haha
Thanks Dean,I was just about to back them with Gimnastic for a double.Think I’ll give it a miss now.
Palmerias are fast turning into my favourite team! A last minute goal + 17 corners in their last match so was no surprise last night over 10 corners at 10/11 came in! :)
Not sure what it finished up at but was surprised it was only over 10 ( they are usually over 14)
A few of us on here are now Palmerias fans, haha – keep an eyes out for their fixtures!
Greg, I watched the whole game.
Palmeiras had six corners in the first half an hour but it stayed on six until half time. They then had just one more corner by the 70 mark so it wasn’t looking good. Tigres then suddenly had four corners in a very short period which got the bet up. It finished 7-4 to Palmeiras.
Palmeiras actually had another corner right at the end but the ref blew his whistle before they were able to take it.
Thank God we weren’t waiting on that one!
Just working Guido. Particularly quiet over the internationals as I can’t be bothered with them and I very rary back anything. How’s you? Any winners?
Mr F, Striker …Cheers for the BBTS tips last night.
Anyone know any thing about Japanese Football? I want to have a nice early win in the Nabisco Cup
AC, Japanese football is not my thing but like many others was on Palmeiras corners. Cheers for the reminder for guys and first flagged up by Bounty Punter.
Chris ain’t gona lie miss your posts! Used to go with a lot of ur first goalscorer bets when watching a game. Didn’t know about Mulgrew till you tipped. All over him now!
Liking the look of these 2 bets to add to some double or treble lines if i can find something to add to them:
REAL MARDRID TO WIN BY EXACTLY 2 GOALS 3/1
REAL MADRID TO WIN BY 3 GOALS OR MORE 6/5….odds Skybet
Paul when’s the tips up for today? Got some money in my account and my fingers itchy on some tennis in play betting I have no clue about haha!
Badham, tips will be up soon. Have fun with the in-play tennis. I like betting on who will serve next.
Beware the inplay line… ”dangerous serve :)
Haha tennis is like flipping a coin really. Unless its a name!
No worries … I’ve gone for a FC Tokoyo & Yokohama double @ 3/1 … Bit of morning entertainment
Just gone for Urawa their home form and form in general looks good. Too good to warrant over evens at home, kicks off at 11:30.
Badham, Urawa have been tipped up here a few times recently so good luck.
Cheers mate. Check back in later for a few Champions league tips. Like you said Malaga game tough to call!
Badham, tips are up. Treble not easy to find but we’ll see. Most of my bets will be on Ronaldo and Real on the handicaps. Right, sun shining for once up here so it’s off for a walk.
Yeah I LOVE that bet its ACE ;) with that I’m gone
Treble for me gents:
Iwata
Tokoyo
Yokohama
And a small 4 team over 2.5 goals
Tokyo
Kaswasaki
Kofu
Yokohama
im waiting on a few Brazilian teams 2nite to collect £500+…..Ituano ( draw ) Botofogo (win ) & XV De Piracicaba (win )..Anyone know if im in with a shout ???
Atlético Mineiro v Arsenal de Sarandi
Copa Libertadores | Thursday 4th April 2013 |kick off 02:00AM
just checked some stats for this and shows that 14 of Atletico’s last 15 games have gone over 2.5 goals and the price for this again is 8/11 @ Skybet,Atletico beat Arsenal 5-2 in the reverse 27th Feb and have won last 11 games,but are priced at only 2/5 for the win.Anyone interested in earning a few quid whilst they sleep should get on the over 2.5 goals market.
Ha Ha!!!! The game a tipped up early yesterday came up trumps in the wee hours of the night..hope some got on what id predicted :)
Urawa 1-0 7mins! I’ll have a look now. Enjoy! It’s freezing down here, looks like you have our weather from yesterday. Don’t be fooled though get the dogs bomber jacket on!
Ah good man Bryan!
I’ve seen me being done by the ref doing that before, very frustrating!
Interesting they went 7-0 up, they did the same thing on Sat, went 10-0 up, game finished 10-7
Might start looking at the race to 7 and 9 although no sure what the prices are!
All in a all though, a good selection :)
If you do corners lads get on liverpool to get around 10-14 this wkend against w ham! We will be all over them like a rash. Good luck guys