Kolkata Knight Riders v Kings XI Punjab
3.30 BST Live on ITV4
One of the surprising aspects of this year's IPL has been the fall of the Kolkata Knight Riders. On any rational analysis of this competition last year's champions should not be grubbing around at the bottom of the table with the likes of Pune.
Yet this is exactly what has happened. Just two wins from seven matches leave the Knight Riders third from last and defeat here will drop them a place further down on net run rate.
Figuring out what has gone wrong for Gautam Gambhir's men seems to be almost impossible. They've got one of the greatest all-rounders of all time in Jacques Kallis, the mercurial talents of Eoin Morgan, and last season's sensation Sunil Narine to name but three, yet they can't scrape a win for love nor money.
On Wednesday they took on the fading Mumbai Indians, scored a respectable 159 (including 26 from the opening over) and still managed to lose. Expect them to at last give a chance to big-hitting New Zealander Brendon McCullum in place of Sri Lankan spinner Sachithra Senananyake, who conceded a round 50 runs in his four overs against Mumbai.
By contrast to their hosts, Kings XI are on something of a rise, despite the repeated failures of captain Adam Gilchrist at the top of the batting order.
Their bowlers were the stars on Tuesday as they comfortably beat bottom side Delhi, with Praveen Kumar, Parvinder Awana and Harmeet Singh showing you don't need to rely upon overseas bowlers to win you games in these conditions.
Then, after another Gilchrist failure, South African David Miller steered them home for the second game in succession, this time with an unbeaten 34.
Miller's form has been a real bonus for Punjab, as has that of Mandeep Singh, who has been something of a revelation at the top of the order. In fact, for once, Kings XI look like a team who are greater than the sum of their parts, the one week link being Gilchrist.
The problem they have is to replace him they would have to find another wicketkeeper as well as bringing in another overseas player, and there is no other recognised keeper in their squad.
This will be Kolkata's sixth game at Eden Gardens. Both of their wins have come there but so have three hefty defeats. There's a chance of some light rain around the start time of this game but that shouldn't last long and will give way to hot and clear night. That could be good news for Punjab's army of native seamers.
Kolkata are trading at 1.63 which looks very short for a side with a losing record both at home and in the competition generally. Kings XI aren't the greatest road team but they're on a winning roll and 2.46 look to be good odds.
Only two Kolkata batsmen have shown any sort of consistency over the course of the competition so far, Gambhir and Morgan. They can't be expected to carry the Knight Riders forever, though, and it is time for someone else to step up.
Kallis has been paid on his reputation without turning in the batting performances that warrant it and averages fewer runs per innings than a complete rabbit such as Narine. His performances so far mean he should be available at at least 5.0 to top score in this match which are long odds indeed for a player of his calibre.
It isn't often you get to tip an Indian batsmen in the IPL. The big names are always at short odds and the other local players often don't get the chances their talent deserves simply due to the weight of overseas players.
Mandeep Singh is something of an exception though. As Gilchrist's opening partner he has shouldered the burden his captain should have and has scored 50 more runs than any other Punjab batsman. Despite this he'll still be around 4.7 simply because the attention will be on bigger names.
Recommended Bet
Back Kings XI Punjab at 2.46 to win
Milesey (Betfair)
Resident football tipster at Scotland's most read newspaper, the Daily Record, for over 20 years and proud host of one the best betting communities on the web with daily betting tips.
Had this down as a no bet game for me, although you make some decent points there lad. Will probably still leave it as I feel KKR like Delhi, are too strong not to start clicking sometime but your logic is spot on and on form the value is very much with Kings XI Punjab.
The Eerste Divisie, as in-form Den Bosch travel to Eindhoven looking to make it a whopping nine games unbeaten on the road.
Jan Poortvliet’s side go into this clash sitting 11th in the second tier, but their recent results belie that status, and a 5-1 thrashing of Almere City in their last encounter away from de Vliert will have boosted confidence in s’Hertogenbosch.
Eindhoven line up for the game in miserable form – and have won just one of their last eight on their own patch, and that leaves them rock bottom of the division, with just 18 points from 29 outings.
And home boss Pascal Maas has some players missing tonight, with Furkan Alakmak, Jason Bourdouxhe, Timothy Durwael, Anthony van den Hurk and Josemar Makiavala absent through injury, and veteran Theo Lucius also unavailable.
The last time these two sides met, in February, Den Bosch ran out 3-1 winners – and I fancy them to take maximum points here, too.
Den Bosch @ 1.61
*****************
LAY OF THE DAY
—————-
Volendam are most certainly a team on the up. After finishing down in 12th place last season, Hans de Koning was installed as manager, and with just two games to go, they are top of the table, two points clear of Cambuur in second.
The ‘Other Orange’ have won their last six on the spin and given their superior goal difference, they need to pick up four points from their remaining two fixtures to all but secure promotion to the top flight of Dutch football.
Clearly they will be highly motivated, as if results go their way, they could actually win the league tonight. They are quite long odds-on though and their opponents will provide a very stern test.
Maastricht are fifth in the table with little to play for. They will likely finish fourth of fifth but only the winners achieve promotion to the Eredivisie and there are no play-offs. They would be challenging for that title if their home form hadn’t fallen off a cliff in the last couple of months – one point from a possible 18 – as their results away from De Geusselt have been superb.
René Trost’s men have lost on the road just once this season and they’ve won six of their last eight. They haven’t just been beating the weaker teams in the division either as Cambuur, Sparta Rotterdam and Fortuna Sittard were all beaten at home by MVV.
Volendam’s price has obviously been influenced by their desire for victory, but as the Rolling Stones once sang – You can’t always get what you want. Maastricht have been excelling away from home and I fear that the market have underestimated them here. That’s why, with Volendam trading around the 1.55 mark, I have to make them my lay of the day.
Recommended Bet
Lay Volendam v Maastricht @ 1.55
**********************************
Milesey
( betfair )
PORTUGAL: Portuguese Liga
Estoril V Braga
20:00 K/0
Nine of Estoril’s last 13 Portuguese Liga home games have gone Over 2.5 Goals. So have 5/7 Braga away matches – and 11 of their last 16 anywhere.
Recommended Bet: Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.02 in Estoril v Braga
Milesey
Any big bets today Milesy?
HURRICANE FLY and PONT ALEXANDRE…….. BIG BIG MONEY on the FLY today @ 1/3.
Had a bet on the IPL game, and also Den Bosch, my lay of the day and the over 2.5 in the Braga game. Got a few running in the golf and snooker….. and looking at some Horse racing match bets for later, just had alittle look through the markets on bet365 to see the match ups they have for today, and just getting round to having alook over the form, weights, etc…… get them on, then got some things to do for the weekend for work, then i’ll be looking at a couple of markets 5 minutes before the off time for some backing and laying action.
Milesey
………. i’ll have another look tonight at the Leicester v Watford game, but think i’ll be LAYING Leicester and backing over 3.5 goals in this one.
Milesey
Milesey, I can’t see any value in Leicester who are odds on with some bookies. Watford are as big as 3-1 but it’s a huge match for both sides. I’d have them both about 13-8.
PONT ALEXANDRE NON RUNNER!!!id backed it last night,pulled out at 10.20 this morning
Yeah just seen that now…… gutted.
Milesey
IPL CRICKET
Back Kings XI Punjab at 2.46 to win
———————————–
Eindhoven V Den Bosch
Den Bosch @ 1.61
———————————–
LAY OF THE DAY
Lay Volendam v Maastricht @ 1.55
———————————–
PORTUGAL: Portuguese Liga
Estoril V Braga
Recommended Bet: Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.02 in Estoril v Braga
————————————
UN ATOUT @ 8/15 Bet365
UN DE SCEAUX @ 6/4 Bet365
SINGLES and the DOUBLE 2.83/1 Bet365
————————————-
HURRICANE FLY
ROCK ON RUBY
straight forecast 2.19 Bet365
————————————–
LEICESTER V WATFORD
Lay Leicester @ 2.02
Back over 3.5 goals at 2.88
Back both teams to score at 1.55
—————————————
Milesey
Best value seems goals for Leicester v Watford. I’ll be big on 2.5 & btts with a smaller stake on 3.5.
Shamrock rovers look a good banker as well. Them together with Den Bosch seem like best footy bets on the win market.
A tidy little double is Watford and Tottenham … £10 brings back just over £70