QPR and Stoke are the lowest scorers in the Premier League but Mr M thinks there could be fireworks when they meet at Loftus Road this afternoon.
QPR are all but relegated – 10 points adrift of safety with just a possible 15 to play for. Harry Redknapp was brought in to save their season but after a brief flurry, he actually has a similar record to his predecessor Mark Hughes.
The problem for Rangers has been in front of goal as with just 29 scored, they have averaged less than one per game. Interestingly though, the blank at Everton last weekend was the first time they've failed to score since facing Manchester United in February. Since that defeat, they netted twice against Southampton, Aston Villa and Fulham, and once against Sunderland and Wigan.
Stoke are really struggling at the moment and it all seems to have gone wrong since their hugely impressive 3-1 victory over Liverpool on Boxing Day. The Potters were dreaming of Europe after that result but it's been back to earth with a bang in 2013 after 10 defeats in 13 and just one win.
Tony Pulis's men are usually safe by this time of the year so it will be interesting to see if they can handle the pressure of a relegation scrap. They have slipped to 16th in the table, a mere three points clear of Wigan, who incidentally have a game in hand.
Like their opponents, scoring goals has been a problem for Stoke. They are the lowest scorers in the entire division with just 29 to their name, with only nine of those coming away from home. They have to go for it today though as even a draw won't help their cause too much.
The statistics point to this one being low scoring but I have a feeling it could end up like one of those end-of-season crackers that finishes up with a cricket score. It's win or bust for QPR and Stoke badly need all three points as well.
That's why, with under 2.5 goals trading around the 1.76 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day.
Recommended Bet
Lay Under 2.5 goals in QPR v Stoke @ 1.76
Milesey (Betfair)
Resident football tipster at Scotland's most read newspaper, the Daily Record, for over 20 years and proud host of one the best betting communities on the web with daily betting tips.
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Western Sydney Wanderers vs Central Coast Mariners
Sunday 07:00
The Grand Final is upon us and it is only fitting that the two most impressive and consistent teams have made it to the final hurdle. After a strongly contested A-League campaign it all boils down to ninety minutes of pulsating drama at a sold out Allianz Stadium. Will it be the fairy tale ending for new boys Western Sydney Wanderers or fourth time lucky for ‘nearly men’ Central Coast Mariners…
After finishing the regular season in pole position, as well as currently holding a thirteen game unbeaten run, the Wanderers will go into Sunday morning’s clash as slight favourites at 1.92.
Cruising past a lacklustre Brisbane Roar in last weekend’s semi-final, Tony Popovic’s men will know that to secure a historic double in their debut season they will need to save the best until last to beat a Mariners side seeking redemption.
Popovic will go into Sunday’s final with a few selection problems. With talented Ethiopian winger Youssouf Hersi suspended after last weekend’s red card and reliable midfielder Aaron Mooy struggling with a knee injury, the Wanderers boss may have to show incredible faith in inexperienced youngster Yianni Perkatis by giving him his third start of the season. The nineteen year old proved instrumental against the Roar before being subbed late in the second half.
A major positive to come out of their semi-final success was the goal scored by Croatian striker Dino Kresinger. After admitting to a “frustrating first season” in the A-League, the highly regarded front-man has only managed to find the net twice for the Wanderers. With many of the Western Sydney faithful showing patience throughout the year, a winning goal at the Allianz Stadium would do more than enough to turn him into the club’s first ‘cult’ hero.
After missing out on three previous Grand Final victories, Graham Arnold’s side will be hoping for redemption in their fourth attempt at the Holy Grail.
After impressing in a season that has had its financial problems, the Mariners finished the regular season in second spot and only three points off the Wanderers after setting an impressive early pace. Outscoring the rest of the league combined with having a tight defensive structure, the ‘nearly men’ have won the hearts of many neutral fans this season and Arnold is convinced they will have adequate support come Sunday morning.
In a press conference this week the Mariners boss stated “the Mariners are everyone’s second team”, along with a positive outlook into his tactics saying “as long as we execute our game plan, we will be fine”. Knowing the Wanderers may not be at full strength, the Yellow Army will be confident Daniel McBreen can add to his seventeen goals this season to punish a usually reliable defence.
In a final that is assured of a heart warming story whoever the victor, the team who shows the most heart and passion may just edge the title. With one win each and a draw on the opening day of the season in head to heads, these teams couldn’t be closer matched, however expect the Wanderers to deliver the fairytale ending in a memorable day in Sydney.
Recommended Bet:
Back Western Sydney Wanderers to win @ 2.5
Back under 2.5 goals @ 1.62
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Feyenoord vs Vitesse
Sunday 13:30
With four games left in this season’s Eredivisie the race to catch run away leaders Ajax looks to be asking a little too much of the chasing pack. With Vitesse, PSV and Feyenoord all separated by a single point in second, third and fourth spots – the fight second place and Champions League qualification is reaching boiling point.
After yo-yoing between third and fifth place all season, the hosts will not have been expecting this last chance push for a Champions League spot or even a possible crack at the title. With Twente, PSV and Ajax sharing the lead throughout the year, the ‘pretenders to the crown’ as many pundits have called them, have stayed solid and consistent picking up points against tricky opposition.
Perhaps not the most entertaining of sides, Ronald Koeman’s men have struggled to match the big hitting goal tallies of the top three and have lacked the goal scoring options that their rivals have at their disposal. With all of their good work coming from the boot of Italian striker Graziano Pelle, he has often been relied on heavily to prove the difference in matches scoring nearly half of Feyenoord’s goals this season.
This in mind, the pluckiness that the ‘De Trots van Zuid’ have shown this year cannot be ignored and a entry into the Champions League via the back door would be fully deserved by a side steeped in European history.
Vitesse’s rise to success this season can be summed up in one name – Wilfried Bony. The Ivorian has had a remarkable season for the Arnhem side scoring 30 of the clubs 63 goals to date and has caused shockwaves in the Premiership sighting interest from the likes of West Ham and Chelsea for his services next season.
An ever present in the Vitesse line-up, he has enabled the visitors to rise to second place after being in contention all season and if it wasn’t for being held to a 3-3 draw against Roda last weekend, hype would be growing that this could be the year to finally secure their maiden Eredivisie title.
Vitesse have impressed defensively as well this campaign. With the reliable services of Kalas, Kashia and van Aanholt sitting infront of the competent hands of Velthuizen in goal, teams have struggled to break down their back line managing four clean sheets in their last six outings.
The winner of this fixture will find themselves in pole position to take that all important second spot come the end of the season, and with Ajax hosting a Heerenveen side full of confidence on Friday night, by the time kick off comes both these sides could well be back in the hunt for the Eredivisie crown… however unlikely that sounds.
Recommended Bet:
Back the draw @ 3.9
Back both teams to score @ 1.57
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Inter v Parma 11:30 k/o
The decline of Inter Milan this season has spelled dark times for their young coach Andrea Stramaccioni, but has been a source of profit for this column. The question is: can we go to the well again this weekend? Inter are 2.14 to beat Parma at San Siro, and it’s certainly not a price which makes much appeal. The difference between Parma and Inter’s other recent conquerors, Bologna, Cagliari and Atalanta, is that Parma are themselves out of form. Their price of 4.0 for the win is probably about fair.
I don’t have the space to detail Inter’s injury list here, but they’ll once again have to play with Tommaso Rocchi and Ricky Alvarez up front, and even though Alvarez is getting better, that combination won’t strike fear into Roberto Donadoni. The visiting coach has a couple of issues to deal with himself, namely the absence of Gabriel Paletta, and given that Parma have failed to score in three of their last four games, and that they’ve picked up only 2 points from their last 18 away, I can’t recommend them at 3/1.
I am still interested in Inter, though.
They played well against Roma in midweek, but that game will have taken a lot out of them, and, rather like Milan last week, I can’t help but feel that the chance to lay them at a price near even money is too good to be missed. We have had much success backing Bologna and Atalanta to win at San Siro lately, but I’m going to be more conservative here, and lay Inter at 2.14. For all Parma’s issues, that is definitely too short, and so logic should prevail.
Recommended Bet
Lay Inter to beat Parma @ 2.14
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Juventus v Milan 7:45 k/0
Antonio Conte still refuses to talk about the Scudetto until Juventus are certain winners. Many would argue that they already have won the League, but Conte’s professionalism will carry his team right through until the end of the season. If Juve can win against Milan on Sunday night, then they’ll be just a couple of games away from celebrating another title, and if Napoli fail to beat Cagliari, then that day will move ever closer. Juve are 1.78 to beat Milan, and that price probably has a lot to do with the continued absence of Mario Balotelli from the Milan starting line up. His suspension has hit the Rossoneri just as they seemed likely to get past Napoli into second place, and Max Allegri will have to play Giampaolo Pazzini and Stephan El Sharaawy up front together once more.
Milan performed with credit against Napoli, and I don’t think that they should be as big as they are to emerge from Turin with at least a point, even though Mathieu Flamini is suspended. The goals markets are the aspect of this game which interest me most, and I think that Both Teams to Score may be overpriced at 1.88. Milan have scored in each of their last six away games, and with Juve likely to find a way through against a defence which looked less than solid last week, that rates a decent bet. The Coppa Italia game between these two earlier this year was richly entertaining, and this game could well throw up another Sunday night spectacle. Over 2.5 Goals are available at 1.96, but I prefer the former option at a slightly shorter price.
Recommended Bet
Back Both Teams to Score in Juventus v Milan @ 1.88
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Fiorentina v Torino 2:00 k/o
There was a time when this match looked like a real issue for Fiorentina as they continue to push for a 4th placed finish. La Viola really must win this, as Roma, who are emerging as their likeliest challengers, have a home game against Pescara which they look certain to win. I was hoping to see Fiorentina a little bigger than 1.5 to win, and won’t be advocating them at that price, but we should take note of the fact that Torino have lost four of their last seven games, and of the manner in which they’ve lost them.
Torino’s last three games have produced 15 goals, and without looking too much further back, you’ll find 4-1 and 4-3 defeats. They’ve conceded 10 goals in their last three away matches and that makes the goal markets worth more than a second look. Stefan Jovetic is out, but Adem Llajic has been in great form for Fiorentina, and with Marcelo Larrondo responding well to getting his chance last week, Fiorentina are likely to be their usual fluent selves. And they LOVE playing teams who are as open as Torino. I expect Fiorentina to win, and to do so convincingly. That brings the Asian Handicap into play, but I prefer to play over 3.5 goals at 3.4.
Recommended Bet
Back Over 3.5 Goals in Fiorentina v Torino @ 3.4
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Osasuna v Real Sociedad
Sunday 18:00 (Live on Sky Sports 1)
Osasuna 3.25 Sociedad 2.48 draw 3.45
Osasuna have not scored in 356 minutes of league football at the Reyno de Navarra.
Zero goals simply won’t be enough against Real Sociedad, who have ripped into better sides with 23 goals in 11 away matches (W6-D4-L1).
Asier Illarramendi’s suspension might send you running for a bit of Asian Handicap cover, but records show Sociedad have scored 11 goals in three games without him this season.
If Ruben Pardo misses out as well – he’s rated doubtful at the time of writing – that’s when the draw becomes a concern.
Recommended Bet
Back Real Sociedad @ 2.48
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Sevilla v Atletico Madrid
Sunday 20:00 (Live on Sky Sports 1)
Sevilla 2.56 Atletico 3.1 draw 3.45
Sevilla have won their last seven Liga home matches, averaging three goals per game for the last six.
But Atletico are unbeaten in four on the road (W2 D2) and eased concerns about a lack of goals with a 5-0 thumping of Granada.
Clean sheets in all four of those away games say the visitors can defend too. Sevilla’s six home wins under Unai Emery have come against weaker opposition: ninth-placed Vallecano are currently highest in the table among them.
Sevilla were 3-0 up in the city derby with Betis last weekend. The fallout from throwing that lead away is still to come.
Atletico’s counter-attacking style looks a good fit for Sevilla’s more straightforwardly aggressive approach and we’re ready to give the visitors a bit of support on the Asian Handicap.
Keep an eye on the Sending Off? market too. This season’s three previous meetings of these two brought eight red cards (seven for Sevilla).
Recommended Bet
Back Atletico Madrid 0 & +0.5
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London Marathon 2013
MENS – GEOFFREY MUTAI @ 5.80
STEPHEN BIWOTT @ 16.0
AYELE ABSHERO @ 16.0
WOMENS – TIKI GELANA @ 2.70
JOYCE CHEPKIRUI @ 30.0
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FORMULA ONE – BAHRAIN GRAND PRIX
back Red Bull to be the winning car between 3.05 and 3.7
back Webber at 4.7 for a podium finish
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Milesey
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IPL CRICKET – SUNDAY
Delhi Daredevils vs Mumbai Indians
Start Time: BST (11:30)
TV: Live on ITV and itv.com
Delhi Daredevils
After six defeats from six matches, the latest by an 86 run margin, Delhi are in crisis. When neither David Warner or Mahela Jayawardene contribute significantly, the rest look incapable of registering a decent total. Virender Sehwag in particular looks finished at the highest level, yet reputation virtually ensures his place. If the batmen get their act together, top drawer bowlers like Morne Morkel and Umesh Yadav remain major assets, but there has been little evidence of the former so far.
Mumbai Indians
The messiah-like status of Sachin Tendulkar creates a similar problem for Mumbai. The Little Master is clearly well past his best and his presence weakens an otherwise superb batting line-up. Strangely, Mumbai’s other superstar has yet to make an impact on this year’s IPL either, with Lasith Malinga claiming just two wickets. Expect that to change soon and Malinga should be licking his lips at the prospect of death bowling against this struggling team.
First Innings Runs
Chennai’s 169 was a characteristically impressive total, on what looked like a pretty slow pitch for Wednesday’s match at Feroz Shah Kotla. I reckon par was closer to 150 and am therefore inclined to go under that total assuming it can be laid at odds-on, although so much depends which team is batting. Mumbai are a side whose totals are very hard to predict, because of gamechanging hitters like Kieran Pollard. As we saw on Wednesday, they collapse far too often but their previous totals were 183 and 209. My advice therefore is if Delhi bat first, lay over 150 with confidence. If it’s Mumbai, though, have a smaller stake bet on the same outcome.
Match odds
Supporting Delhi for trading purposes, on the assumption that they’re bound to win sooner or later, backfired in the last match so, while any odds-on bet in T20 cricket carries a lot of risk, I can’t see past Mumbai at 1.66. They are genuine title contenders while Delhi face a struggle to avoid bottom place.
Top Delhi batsman
The most opportune time for Delhi to score runs could be at the start of the innings. Mitchell Johnson has been impressive for Mumbai, but he’s also pretty expensive and an easier target for slogging than Malinga or the spinners. With Sehwag avoided at all costs, that makes David Warner a solid favourite at around 4.0.
Top Mumbai batsman
All of Mumbai’s good batting so far has come from number three downwards but, given the distinct possibility of a low Delhi total, the openers may enjoy an advantage here. Tendulkar is hard to fancy in current form, so lets take a chance on Ricky Ponting making his first significant contribution at around 5.0.
Recommended bet
Back Mumbai @ 1.66
Kings XI Punjab v Pune Warriors
Start Time: 15:30 BST
TV: Live on ITV4 and ITV.com
Kings XI Punjab
Little was expected from Adam Gilchrist’s side at the start of this tournament and in that sense Kings XI haven’t disappointed. With just four points from a possible ten, a play-off place already looks beyond them but the squad will be confident of another victory when they host a Pune side who are in even worse shape.
One of the issues for Kings XI has been Gilchrist himself but there was a brief glimpse of the 41-year-old’s best form when he top scored against the Sunrisers on Friday. Meanwhile, David Hussey has been a consistent run scorer in the middle order and there is better news for the side with reports that Shaun Marsh has been passed fit after a long standing hamstring injury.
“I’m feeling fit and healthy so I can’t wait to get back to playing cricket again,” Marsh said as he prepared to re-join the squad and in a battle of two weak sides, his power hitting at the top of the order could make all the difference.
Pune Warriors
Anyone who backed this franchise to cause an upset at the start of this tournament would have finally given up hope when Angelo Mathew’s side contrived to throw away their winning position against Sunrisers last time out. Chasing a sub-par total of 119, the Warriors’ middle order obliging surrendered to lose their last six wickets for just seven runs.
Skipper Mathews has been hugely frustrating, offering very little with bat or ball and with Luke Wright, Marlon Samuels and Ross Taylor watching from the sidelines in the last match, many feel that the captain needs to be left in the dugout in order to save Pune’s season.
Venue and Conditions
In two matches played at the Punjab C.A. Stadium in this tournament so far, the first innings scores have been 138 and 157, the first of which was chased down before the second proved to be a winning total.
Kings XI batted first on both occasions and their inconsistency makes it hard to judge a par score on this surface. However, 160 should be the minimum aim and interestingly, of the eight home games played by Punjab in 2012, seven were won by the side batting second so that could influence the toss.
Match Odds
Pune are favourites at 1.78 to take the points but at the moment, sides have only needed to roll over Aaron Finch at the top of the order to win the game. The Warriors’ two victories so far have been built around half centuries from the Australian but you cannot rely so heavily on one man.
The toss could be vital as could the potential return of Shaun Marsh and currently, Kings XI look very generous at 1.92 for the win.
Punjab Top Batsman
It’s hard to look beyond the three Australians here – Gilchrist, Hussey and Marsh – and while the skipper gave the return here on Friday, Hussey is the most consistent player in the squad and is the best bet at 4.0.
Marsh is tempting at 3.5 but reports of his full fitness could yet be exaggerated.
Pune Top Batsman
Finch is a worthy favourite at 3.40 and if he stays at the crease beyond the Powerplay, he will surely give the return. Elsewhere, the market is wide open because the Warriors batters have performed so badly but the beleaguered Mathews can always be dangerous and might just be worth an outside punt at 7.00.
Recommended Bet
Back Punjab to win @ 1.92
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London Marathon 2013
MENS – GEOFFREY MUTAI @ 5.80
STEPHEN BIWOTT @ 16.0
AYELE ABSHERO @ 16.0
WOMENS – TIKI GELANA @ 2.70
JOYCE CHEPKIRUI @ 30.0
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FORMULA ONE – BAHRAIN GRAND PRIX
back Red Bull to be the winning car between 3.05 and 3.7
back Webber at 4.7 for a podium finish
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Milesey
Ebdon v Dott probably take a week to play best of 19 frames!!
Ya running London marathon 2moro Milesey?? :-) how far Stevenage from the big smoke?
Grand Final this morning Milesey I repect your right up and for the first time in months I disagree with you Central Coast Mariners Champions of Australia
CCM WIN
BBTS
OVER 2.5
CCM 2 WSW 1
lol 2 the tained aye I have made my feelings exceedingly clear towards the grand final the spelling of some words is somewhat questionable doesn’t make my points any the less valid lol
we’ll see, i’ll be up bright and early to watch this one ;) ;)
Milesey
Western Sydney Wanderers vs Central Coast Mariners
Sunday 07:00
The Grand Final is upon us and it is only fitting that the two most impressive and consistent teams have made it to the final hurdle. After a strongly contested A-League campaign it all boils down to ninety minutes of pulsating drama at a sold out Allianz Stadium. Will it be the fairy tale ending for new boys Western Sydney Wanderers or fourth time lucky for ‘nearly men’ Central Coast Mariners…
After finishing the regular season in pole position, as well as currently holding a thirteen game unbeaten run, the Wanderers will go into Sunday morning’s clash as slight favourites at 1.92.
Cruising past a lacklustre Brisbane Roar in last weekend’s semi-final, Tony Popovic’s men will know that to secure a historic double in their debut season they will need to save the best until last to beat a Mariners side seeking redemption.
Popovic will go into Sunday’s final with a few selection problems. With talented Ethiopian winger Youssouf Hersi suspended after last weekend’s red card and reliable midfielder Aaron Mooy struggling with a knee injury, the Wanderers boss may have to show incredible faith in inexperienced youngster Yianni Perkatis by giving him his third start of the season. The nineteen year old proved instrumental against the Roar before being subbed late in the second half.
A major positive to come out of their semi-final success was the goal scored by Croatian striker Dino Kresinger. After admitting to a “frustrating first season” in the A-League, the highly regarded front-man has only managed to find the net twice for the Wanderers. With many of the Western Sydney faithful showing patience throughout the year, a winning goal at the Allianz Stadium would do more than enough to turn him into the club’s first ‘cult’ hero.
After missing out on three previous Grand Final victories, Graham Arnold’s side will be hoping for redemption in their fourth attempt at the Holy Grail.
After impressing in a season that has had its financial problems, the Mariners finished the regular season in second spot and only three points off the Wanderers after setting an impressive early pace. Outscoring the rest of the league combined with having a tight defensive structure, the ‘nearly men’ have won the hearts of many neutral fans this season and Arnold is convinced they will have adequate support come Sunday morning.
In a press conference this week the Mariners boss stated “the Mariners are everyone’s second team”, along with a positive outlook into his tactics saying “as long as we execute our game plan, we will be fine”. Knowing the Wanderers may not be at full strength, the Yellow Army will be confident Daniel McBreen can add to his seventeen goals this season to punish a usually reliable defence.
In a final that is assured of a heart warming story whoever the victor, the team who shows the most heart and passion may just edge the title. With one win each and a draw on the opening day of the season in head to heads, these teams couldn’t be closer matched, however expect the Wanderers to deliver the fairytale ending in a memorable day in Sydney.
Recommended Bet:
Back Western Sydney Wanderers to win @ 2.5
Back under 2.5 goals @ 1.62
Milesey my old Son its simply a gut feeling U must have gawn on a few of them in your time We will see mate that’s for sure Central Coast Mariners Oz champions eastern European scum