This weekend’s EFL slate looks another strong opportunity to build on a fine run of form, with 10 winners from the last 14 selections. Three standout games headline the latest card, each offering value backed by clear data and consistent trends: Accrington vs Swindon, Coventry vs Blackburn and QPR vs Millwall.
Swindon look well set to extend their impressive start when they visit an Accrington side struggling badly in both form and process. The visitors’ attacking metrics and scoring consistency are among the best in League Two, while Accrington’s chance creation and defensive numbers remain well below par.
In the Championship, Coventry continue to look one of the league’s most reliable sides by both results and underlying data. They host Blackburn, whose away numbers are among the weakest in the division, making a home win in a controlled, low-scoring game a logical angle.
At Loftus Road, QPR’s open style under Marti Cifuentes has produced plenty of goalmouth action, and Millwall’s attacking approach away from home suggests that both teams to score remains the most likely outcome.
With recent results matching the data, all three fixtures fit neatly into established patterns that have underpinned a profitable run.
Accrington Stanley vs Swindon Town
Swindon look strong favourites to win at Accrington, with both form and process pointing clearly in their favour. The visitors’ attacking output and underlying data are far superior, while Accrington’s numbers highlight the same weaknesses reflected in their results.
Accrington come into the game with a record of W2-D3-L6, scoring just nine and conceding fourteen. They have failed to score in five of eleven and only scored twice in a match once.
Their attacking process is weak: 1.09 xG for vs 1.19 xGA across the last four matches, producing just 8.0 shots in box for vs 6.8 against and only two big chances per game. They are bottom six for xG ratio, have one of the lowest big chance creation rates in the league, and their home xPTS position ranks 22nd overall.
Defensively, they continue to give up territory and quality chances, allowing opponents to control the shot and xG balance too easily.
Swindon’s recent data is in sharp contrast. Over the last four games, they have averaged 1.62 xG for vs 0.77 xGA, giving them a strong +0.85 xG supremacy and 9 xPTS from 12. Their away xG ratio sits at 67%, and they’ve recorded 9.8 shots in the box for vs 6.3 against while generating three big chances per match. Over the season they have scored in 10 of 11 and netted two or more in eight, underlining their attacking consistency.
The gap in both results and metrics is significant. Swindon create more, concede less, and sustain higher-quality chances. With Accrington’s attack misfiring and their defensive structure under pressure, Swindon’s superior open-play numbers, shot volume and efficiency make them the clear pick to win, with another multi-goal performance well within expectation.
- Best Bet: Swindon to win at 10/11 with Boylesport
Coventry City vs Blackburn Rovers
Coventry look a strong bet to beat Blackburn, with every key metric pointing in their favour. They sit top of the Championship for xPTS with 21.0 and have been dominant across all performance indicators.
Their underlying numbers show complete control of games, averaging 2.66 xG for and just 0.68 xGA, giving them an xG ratio of 79.6%, the highest in the division. Over their last eight matches, Coventry’s xG supremacy has been a remarkable +2.12, and they lead the league for big chances created, shots in the box, and shots on target ratio.
At home, they have converted that superiority into consistent results, winning three of four and ranking first for xG, xPTS and big chance supremacy.
Blackburn, in contrast, have been poor both in process and results. They are 21st for xG ratio, generating just 0.83 npxG per game while allowing 1.25. Their attacking output away from home has been limited, failing to score in half of their matches and ranking bottom-six for shots on target and shots inside the box. They have also conceded first in four of five away games and struggled to sustain possession or chance creation.
While Coventry’s attacking data supports a home win, their matches have rarely been high-scoring. They control tempo, limit opposition chances and have conceded more than once in only one of their last eight games. Blackburn’s lack of cutting edge adds weight to the unders angle.
Two of Coventry’s last three victories have finished with under 4.5 goals, and all of Blackburn’s ten league matches this season has gone beyond that threshold with their games averaging just 2.25 goals.
Given Coventry’s attacking superiority, defensive balance, and Blackburn’s weak shot profile, a home win in a controlled, moderate-scoring game looks the most likely outcome.
- Best Bet: Coventry to win and under 4.5 goals at 19/20 with Ladbrokes
QPR vs Millwall
Both teams to score looks a strong play when QPR host Millwall. The numbers point clearly toward goals at both ends, with neither side defending well enough to trust for a clean sheet.
QPR home matches have been consistently open. They rank mid-table for xG but bottom half for xGA, and both teams have scored in four of their last five at Loftus Road. They have conceded in three of four home fixtures so far, allowing an average of 1.29 xGA, but remain lively in attack with 1.25 xG created per home game.
Their style under Marti Cifuentes encourages risk in possession, and the side’s strong pressing numbers create space for opponents to counter. It is no surprise they sit in the top six for shots on target and big chances ratio at home, while ranking bottom eight defensively for both measures.
Millwall’s away profile is similar. Their games have seen 75% both teams to score and have scored in every away game keeping just one clean sheet against struggling Sheffield Utd. They concede plenty of territory and shots but still carry a consistent threat, averaging 1.23 xG away from home.
The Lions’ defensive metrics tell the story: 1.29 xGA, six goals conceded in four, and an xG ratio below 50%. Yet going forward they are creating enough to compete, ranking mid-table for shots in box and xG from open play away.
With both teams generating around two to three big chances per game but lacking defensive control, this fixture shapes up like most recent meetings between them. Four of the last five have seen both teams score, and neither looks likely to change that pattern.
QPR’s attacking intent combined with Millwall’s counter-punching threat makes both teams to score the standout angle here, with both sides expected to find the net.
- Best Bet: Both teams to score at 5/6 with Boylesport
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