The final matchday before the next international break will end with a bang, as Lille host PSG with hopes of ending their recent Ligue 1 losing streak.
The Mastiffs had a near-perfect start to the season with three wins and a draw in the first four games, but have since alternated wins and defeats in their last four. The back-to-back Europa League wins and back-to-back defeats in Ligue 1 revealed some of the weaknesses in Bruno Genesio’s men. Most notably, Lille couldn’t score in two consecutive league matches, and a third goalless game in a row would be a first for the Mastiffs since 2019.
PSG’s treatment room may be becoming overcrowded but Luis Enrique is unstoppable. The Parisians lost to Marseille due to an early own goal but didn’t let the rare defeat hurt their morale. They reminded us why they are the best team in the world right now by coming from behind away at Barcelona without half of their usual starters. And the fact PSG have only lost twice away in Ligue 1 since the start of season 2023/24 should be a serious confidence booster.
How the bookies view it: Expected away advantage but with good odds
It feels great to finally see some regular odds in a PSG match, as the Parisians usually get given an extreme betting advantage. This time, due to the high profile of this fixture, you can pick them at 3/4, while Lille are available at 15/4. For everyone with other ideas, you can also opt for the draw at 29/10.
Recent head-to-head: PSG scored seven goals last season
Few Ligue 1 rivalries have produced as many goals as the one between Lille and PSG. The last 10 H2Hs have featured a total of 41 goals. The sad side for the Mastiffs is that the Parisians won six of the last seven meetings, including twice last season with 4-1 and 3-1.
Players to watch: Ramos needs more goals to keep his place
You may see some new names in PSG’s squad, courtesy of their long injury list, but this also opens up a world of opportunities, as bookies put a high price on several players. We intend to put some money on Goncalo Ramos, who will be back in the starting line-up after scoring the match winner against Barcelona just a few minutes after coming on. He is still far from his best form from last season, but should be the main threat for the champions in the final third.
Probable line-ups
Lille: Ozer, Meunier, Verdonk, Mandi, Ngoy, Bouaddi, Andre, Sahraoui, Haraldsson, Correia, Giroud
Paris Saint-Germain: Chevalier, Hakimi, Zabarnyi, Beraldo, Hernandez, Mayulu, Vitinha, Kang-in, Mbaye, Ramos, Barcola
Anything else catch the eye?
It is impossible not to expect goals when these teams meet, regardless of their current forms. Lille have not scored in back-to-back Ligue 1 games and we can’t imagine a world where this streak extends to a third match, even if it is against PSG. The last 10 H2Hs featured an average of 4.1 goals per match, while the last eight in a row saw goals from both sides.
Additionally, we found an interesting opportunity related to the card markets. No team has committed fewer fouls than PSG this season and have not been booked more than once per match this season. Moreover, they never saw yellow or red in three out of six Ligue 1 games this season.
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