LA LIGA returns after a two-week winter break with five games on Saturday – Atletico Madrid v Levante, Deportivo v Athletic Bilbao, Malaga v Almeria, Deportivo v Villarreal and Sevilla v Celta Vigo.
Malaga were in fine form before the break with four wins on the bounce and are 4-7 with McBookie and William Hill to beat Almeria at home.
Atletico Madrid have boosted their ranks with the loan signing of former favourite Fernando Torres from AC Milan but he won't feature today and could make his debut in the Copa del Rey showdown with Real Madrid. Atletico are extremely short to win.
Fifth-placed Villarreal will be expected to record an eighth successive league and cup win when they go to rock-bottom Elche. They are 4-5 at William Hill. Villarreal's only fresh absentee is Tomas Pina who was sent off in the 3-0 win over Deportivo before the Christmas break.
Elche have full-back Edu Albacar out through suspension and Chilean defender Enzo Roco is a doubt as he is yet to return to training since the 2-1 defeat to Malaga before Christmas. Pedro Mosquera will be out for at least four months following knee surgery.
Athletic Bilbao top scorer Aritz Aduriz is suspended for the trip to Deportivo, along with forward Iker Muniain. Striker Guillermo Fernandez and midfielder Ager Aketxe are injured so 20-year-old Inaki Williams is set to start up front with Ibai Gomez coming in for Muniain.
Deportivo will be without suspended defender Sidnei and winger Lucas Perez, who is injured, but have been boosted by the return of centre-back Alberto Lopo from injury.
Sevilla coach Unai Emery is itching to get back into action after an extended winter break. His side were scheduled to face Real Madrid in the final round of Primera Division games before Christmas but the Champions League winners' participation in the Club World Cup meant the fixture was postponed.
Sixth-placed Sevilla have not had a match since December 14 and Emery is promising they will be bursting with enthusiasm as they tackle Celta Vigo, a team who stand two places – but 10 points – adrift of them.
Sevilla forward Iago Aspas, on loan from Liverpool, is set to face his former side and has said the occasion will be “very special to me”. Aspas is 17-2 at bet365 to score first.
Celta would love to have him at their disposal as injuries and suspensions bite hard. Argentine striker Joaquin Larrivey has been handed a four-match ban by the Spanish FA (RFEF) for insulting referee Gil Manzano after the defeat to Almeria on December 19.
Larrivey has denied labelling Manzano “a thief” in the tunnel, and team-mate and captain Augusto Fernandez has claimed responsibility for the jibe.
However, Larrivey took the hit in the shape of his hefty suspension and in his absence Celta have called up B team striker Borja Iglesias to swell numbers for the trip.
I like the look of Sevilla at 7-10 with William Hill and a treble on Malaga, Villarreal and Sevilla pays 4-1 at Hills and is worth a tenner.
1pt Spanish treble
Malaga (9pm)
Sevilla (5pm)
Villarreal (7pm)
(4-1, William Hill)
Resident football tipster at Scotland's most read newspaper, the Daily Record, for over 20 years and proud host of one the best betting communities on the web with daily betting tips.
Mr. F, could Villareal – 1 AH (2.350 at Bet365) be less risky SS?
PRINSICO1 betting formular:
Yb = (2nEp + Tl)/(Odd-1)
Yb: Your bet
Ep: epected profit
Tl: Total lose
Note: This formula is ushed for supper singles.
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I’m kinda using that system for my doubles
YB = (EP + TL) / ((ODDS1 * ODDS2) – 1)
YB – Your Bet
EP – Expected Profit
TL – Total Loss (sum of all losing bets in a series)
ODDS1 – Odds for first selection in decimal odds
ODDS2 – Odds for second selection in decimal odds
Expected Profit is flexible, but the higher the profit greater the chance of losing your bankroll in case of bad run. I would suggest moderate EP (let’s say 2 units) at the beginning and then to increase it up to 2.5 or 3 units.
For example let’s assume that each time we bet, both selections will have odds of 1.91 (-110 in American odds). This means that our double will have odds of 1.91 * 1.91 = 3.65 (I would suggest accumulated odds between 3.00 and 4.50). Also let’s suppose our bankroll is $1000 and our unit is $10 and that our expected profit is two units = $20. Our first bet would be:
($20 + 0) / ( 3.65 – 1) = $7.54
We lose, then our next bet is:
($20 + $7.54) / ( 3.65 – 1) = $10.39
We lose again, our next bet is:
($20 + $7.54 + $10.39) / ( 3.65 – 1) = $14.31
And again we lose, next bet is:
($20 + $7.54 + $10.39 + $14.31) / ( 3.65 – 1) = $19.71
Now, this bet is a winner, return is $19.71 * 3.65 = $71.94 and after we deduct all placed bets in the series we are left with profit of $71.97 – $19.71 – $14.31 – $10.39 – $7.54 = $20. After every winner our profit in the series will be 20$, series ends and next bet will be:
($20 + 0) / ( 3.65 – 1) = $7.54
Looks a really solid treble MR F, will be on that. Waiting on the results of 3pm games to determine stake.
SD Balmaseda FC v SD Gernika Club (IN PLAY)
Balmaseda dont look to shabby @ 7/2
Dominating in the stats department by more than double.
Elbar tomorrow away to espanol. at 10.3 looks over priced? DNB. Maybe?
Celta Vigo just received a red card against Sevilla
13/8 Sevilla to win FH.
On Sevilla but celta double chance at 7/1 just now looks cracking value. They are better team despite 1-0 down and down to 10 men
Sevilla were terrible how they got the win then i don’t know Celta deserved something from that but now all on Villarreal who I’m confident will get the win tonight for sure and then onto Malaga.
I’ve backed Villareal -1 aswell.
lets hope this treble comes in after arbroath managed to ruin ur treble earlier mrfixit was unlucky throwing away a 2 nil lead but i still believe lol
Treble looking good nowMr F
Mr. F – any thoughts on betting for the Real Madrid and Barcelona games today?
sonnyboy, hopefully put something up later but going out for a few hours.