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THE countdown is on to the Cheltenham Festival in March and JohnB has provided his ante-post tips for the National Hunt showpiece.
He says: “The first tip might raise a few eyebrows but it is a strong possibility that Hurricane Fly will go for the World Hurdle. In the Gold Cup I think it's all about one horse this time and that's Silviniaco Conti who can make amends for last time.
“The Queen Mother Champion Chase is looking like not having the two main players. It is increasingly likely that Sprinter Sacre and Sire de Grugy won't be fit enough so that makes Champagne Fever and Vautour massive odds.
“Vautour is the risky one because there are so many races this horse can go for but I have a feeling Willie Mullins might just go for it if the big two don't run.
“Because Vautour is entered for nearly every race I think William Hill‘s odds on it to win at the festival are just too big. Vautour in my mind is the best horse in training just now and will be one of the greats. This horse is special.
“And of course if anyone wants a shorty then the 1-2 with a run Paddy Power are offering on Annie Power to win the Mares Hurdle is massive.
“If Annie runs in the Mares then on the day you won't even get 1-5 but if she doesn't run you get your money back. I still think she will eventually be a chaser but if she runs in the Mares Hurdle she wins it.”
World Hurdle
HURRICANE FLY 20-1 e-w Paddy Power Stan James
Gold Cup
Silviniaco Conti 8-1 e-w NAP Paddy Power Boylesports
Queen Mother Champion Chase
Champagne Fever 14-1 e-w Bet365 Paddy Power
Vautour 14-1 e-w Paddy Power
Cheltenham Festival Special
Vautour to win at the festival 15-8 William Hill
Hi John
It seems we both think alike with a couple of your choices.
Hurricane Fly although won last time out against the champion hurdle winner, absolutely thrives in small field heavy ground races so I also have backed him antepost for the world hurdle. Got some good prices before his win last month.
I also agree with you on champagne fever in the champion chase. Personally if I was willy I would keep vautour in with the novices and I also think that he will be run in the JLT as in my opinion Un De Sceux will make amends for his fall last time and be Mullins best two miler. Back on Champagne fever though, I just think he will go for the champion chase this year, he went for home too early last year and fingers crossed will make amends. NOW is the time to be betting on this race antepost as if the big two pull out then prices will crash.
Personally though I can’t have Silviniaco Conti for the gold cup UNLESS it’s soft. The horse is just a stayer and the worse the conditions the more of a test it becomes but on gd ground last year he didn’t seem to enjoy it. I would love bobs worth to do it as he’s one of my fav horses in training but a horse I can see running a big one and hopefully he goes for it and not the Ryanair is Boston Bob. He lost today against Don Cossack but he needs three miles to be at his best for me and is a gd price just now. I also though last years gold cup winners first run back was very good today and on good ground would have a very good chance.
Scuba the reason for Silviniaco Conti’s bad run in the Gold Cup was that they found out later he had stomach ulcers
Paul Nichols saw he had problems & had tests done which revealed the ulcers
Taking this into account its amazing he got as close as he did when he must have been in alot of discomfort
im posted this on the other thread by mistake so here goes again.
can you really see hurricane fly getting a tough 3 miles at Cheltenham.
hope so as he is one of my favourite nags.
I think he has only been over 2 miles once, in 2010 in a 2 mile 4 furlong race, where he beat the sadly ill fated solwhit.
they will have to give him a spin out before then over the distance to see if he stays, where do you reckon the most likely race is for this ?
if he does stay cannot see him being unplaced.
I like his old foe zarkander, like the way that one won if france recently over 3 miles.
in june he went down by 15 lenths to French hotpot gemix.
but last month beat that rival by 5 lengths off the same terms.
don’t know if its true but I heard zarkander has had some operation which if true, has done the trick.
remember last years world hurdle zarkander was 6 lengths behind annie power, but was giving that 7 lb mare allowance.
phew, time for zzzzzzzzzzz
good luck with todays tips
Bad Jasper the main races used as trials for the World Hurdle that have still to be run are the
Long Walk Hurdle 3m 1f at Ascot december
Cleeve Hurdle 3m at Cheltenham january
nap little 1 00 lin nb elhaam 2 30 lin blue cascade 2 50 muss Desoto county
Not so sure, Champagne Fever runs in the KG on boxing day and if it goes well there is a sure fire runner in the GC and the odds for the champion chase won’t change so I’d recommend waiting until after the boxing day for that bet, as it stands CF is targeted at the GC. It’s possible HF could go WH with Faugheen in the race but I still think you’ll see it go again in a champion hurdle lacking any real depth and it could be a small field champion this time round which will also suit. Mullins is always quite cautious with his runners and loves a Cheltenham winner so Vautour will stay in the novice ranks, i’d use the stake for the champion chase to just lump on the 15/8 winning at the festival.
Appreciate some advice from the wiser racing heads on here. Attracted by the Paddy Power offer of backing a horse to win at Cheltenham AND getting a free bet everytime the selection wins a race between now and then.
So of the various candidates which are likely to be in the thick of it and which are going to be lightly raced/wrapped in cotton wool until march?
Obviously want something with a realistic chance of winning the main wager, probably in the minor Cheltenham events, but would accept more risk here provided it gave me a good chance of picking up some free bets along the way. I just don’t know enough about trainers strategy when it comes to planning their season when they are sitting on a decent Chelt prospect. Any help/advice greatly appreciated.
If we are going to see hurricane fly over three miles it will be in 2015 as he is nearly certain to go for the ryanair in another small field lucrative race at xmas time. Hurricane fly beat the ill fated solwhit in the 2m 4f race a few years back and i did not see solwhit ever being a three miler especially at cheltenham so that race is the one i pin my hopes on HF actually winning world hurdle. Hopefully we see the fly in the cleeve end of Jan.
I take your point regarding Silivinaco Conti Johnb but the horse is 0 from 3 at cheltenham and that kind of puts me off but i will have a small bet on his as i trust your judgement and also i think he will crash in price as he is the King George winner for me. If he wins the king George he his likely to go off 4/1 for the gold cup.
Scotta i know Champagne Fever is probably going for the King George but i just hope he doesnt run too well and they go back down in trip. The Ryanair is not one of the championship races so trainer is more likely to go for the Champion instead imo.
A BLACK i have also done this offer with paddy power with the new one for the champion hurdle. I have some very good prices on Faugheen for the CH so i thought i would cover a little by sticking a my PP bet on the new one as i expect him to win a few races before cheltenham (has already won me £10 back) I would like the look of Shaneshill for this bet, i think this horse will run in the neptune and should pick up a few races in the process in ireland.
Cheers Scuba, I’ll have a look at both of them
Also JohnB.
Do you not think Vautour will go the JLT route rather than the Arkle if Un De Sceux comes back and wins?
I’m going to do an ante post double on Silvinaco Conti to win the King George 4/1 and the Gold Cup 8/1
£20 double pays £900 :-)
Mav the bets would conflict im afraid, you would have to find a bookie that will do to win both. I can see bet365 is the best a 20/1
Ah I see… I didn’t realize that Scuba thought you would just be able to do a straight double
yeah i remember when i first started betting i placed a bet in a shop and although they took the bet my double which came in was void as the price would have shortened when the horse won the second race. i complained a little and eventually got paid out on the single for the first bet but still not what i was after.
So for me to do this bet I need to make sure they offer me it as a combined double rather 2 singles put together. Thanks mate
Correct Mav
I see Bet365 and WHills both offering 20/1
Friday night, 19.45 ko
Almeria v Real Madrid
Real Madrid O2.5 tgs 4/5. O3.5 tgs 2/1
Skippy, that’s 14 goals in Almeria’s last 2 games – what price over 6.5 against Real?
Wrong thread
Silv is a brilliant flat track horse for me. As previously pointed out 0 from 3 doesn’t fill me with much confidence. I’d be delighted if it won though.
The Giant Bolster looks decent value each way at 40/1. Has ran OK so far and clearly has Cheltenham form.