Colombia host Peru in Barranquilla for a World Cup qualifier that pits one of South America's strongest home sides against one of the continent’s weakest away teams. Colombia have collected 14 points from seven home matches, with W4-D2-L1. They have scored 13 goals at home — nearly two per game — and no team in CONMEBOL qualifying has recorded more shots on target in home fixtures. Their high point came in a 2–1 victory over Brazil, with Luis Diaz scoring twice in a dominant second-half performance.
Peru, by contrast, have endured a miserable campaign on the road. They have played seven away games and failed to win any, drawing once and losing six. Even more damaging, they have not scored a single goal away from home — the only side in the qualifiers yet to do so. Offensively, they have averaged just 2.21 shots on target per away match, the lowest mark in South America, while conceding 5.71 per game, the second highest in the region.
Colombia’s attacking pressure at home is relentless, while Peru struggle to create and absorb too many chances defensively. Given the form lines, Colombia are heavy favourites to win comfortably, especially if they establish control early in the match.
How the bookies view it: Home win
Colombia are priced at 7/20 to win, reflecting confidence in their dominant home form. The draw is available at 15/4, while a Peru win is seen as highly unlikely, priced at 9/1.
In the goals market, over 2.5 goals is offered at 11/10, suggesting a moderate expectation for a high-scoring game. Both teams to score is priced at 13/8, which carries an implied probability of just 38.1%. This indicates that the market leans toward Peru failing to find the net — consistent with their record of no goals in seven away qualifiers.
Head to head: Hosts dominate in qualifiers
Colombia and Peru have faced each other 25 times in official matches, with Colombia holding the upper hand. Colombia has won 12 of those encounters, Peru has won four, and nine have ended in draws. Colombia has scored 37 goals in that span, averaging 1.48 goals per game, while Peru has scored 17, averaging just 0.68.
In World Cup qualifiers specifically, Colombia’s dominance is even clearer. They have recorded W11-D6-L3 against Peru. On home soil, Colombia are unbeaten in World Cup qualifying against Peru with a record of W4-D2-L0 in Barranquilla.
While Colombia have historically dominated the head-to-head, recent meetings have been tighter, with Peru proving more competitive over the past few years.
Predicted line-ups
Colombia (4-2-3-1): Vargas; Munoz, Sanchez, Lucumi, Machado; Lerma, Rios; Sinisterra, Rodriguez, Diaz; Cordoba
Peru (4-2-3-1): Gallese; Corzo, Zambrano, Callens, Lopez; Yotun, Cartagena; Carrillo, Quispe, Reyna; Guerrero
Players to watch: Rodriguez to star
James Rodriguez continues to be a key creative force for Colombia in this qualification campaign. Despite a relatively quiet club career recently, his impact at international level remains significant.
In this qualifying cycle, Rodriguez has recorded two goals and five assists across 11 appearances. He has taken 25 shots, with 11 on target, showing a consistent threat from midfield. Notably, his performances at home have been far more influential.
He has started six home matches, producing two goals and four assists, directly contributing to a goal in four of those six games. Over these matches in Barranquilla, he has fired 14 shots with six on target, compared to just 11 shots and five on target in away games.
These numbers underline a clear pattern: Rodriguez is significantly more productive on home soil. His vision and set-piece quality are especially effective in front of Colombia’s home crowd, and his influence is expected to be central again when they host Peru.
Anything else catch the eye?
Peru have failed to score in any of their seven away matches during this World Cup qualifying campaign. They have managed just seven shots on target across those games — an average of one per match — and failed to register a single effort on target in two of them. Their attacking threat on the road has been minimal.
Colombia, meanwhile, have kept two clean sheets at home and are conceding an average of 3.08 shots on target per game in Barranquilla. However, that average is inflated by just two matches — against Uruguay and Paraguay — where they conceded six shots on target in each and two goals apiece. Notably, Uruguay are second in the away standings and Paraguay rank second for most shots on target away from home.
Remove those two fixtures, and Colombia's average drops to just 1.8 shots on target conceded per home game. That includes matches against elite opposition such as Brazil, Argentina, and Ecuador, all of whom currently sit in the top four of the standings. The defensive numbers underline Colombia’s control and solidity at home.
Historically, Peru have also struggled in Barranquilla, failing to score in three of their last six visits.
Given Peru’s lack of attacking output, Colombia’s strong home defensive record, and the quality of opposition they have already faced without conceding heavily, backing Colombia to win to nil offers strong value.
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