It's week 12 of the NFL season, and we're hit with a host of teams on Bye as they prepare for Thanksgiving next week.
Due to that, it's not the most entertaining-looking slate of the year, but the NFC West will generate some interest in the late slot, with the Cardinals and Seahawks facing each other and the 49ers looking to win in Green Bay with a backup quarterback to keep their chances of the division title alive.
We hit three out of four on here again last weekend with the Bills victory over the Chiefs the only one blotting the copybook, but once again a nice profit was made as we come into this weekend with Tyreek Hill scoring, the Bengals and Chargers game flying over the total and DJ Moore putting up a lot of yards in a new offensive scheme in Chicago.
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NFL betting tips week 12 best spread bet: Dolphins -7 vs Patriots
The Miami Dolphins are somehow still in the hunt for an AFC Wildcard spot despite having just four wins on the season, but they'll have to win out to be in with a chance of snatching that, and a dominant win against a divisional rival here would be a good start in their quest.
Tua Tagovailoa has been back for a month now, and in that time, the offense has gradually been getting back towards where they were expected to be at the start of the season.
They look like they have found a reliable tight end, with Jonnu Smith looking good in recent weeks, to go along with Tyreek Hill, who's scored three in a row and Jaylen Waddle, who is always able to move the chains for them. Add to that De'Von Achane dominating the backfield, and you've got the offence ticking as they wanted.
The other side of the ball has the Patriots who definitely look better with Drake Maye at QB but still have a distinct lack of talent on offense with a poor run game and below-average pass catchers.
Defensively the Pats have stepped up but this matchup always seems to cause them issues as they play a lot of man-to-man which may work against some, but it struggles against blazing pace.
The Dolphins beat the Raiders by 15 last week, and I think we see a similar result this weekend.
NFL betting tips week 12 best total bet – Cowboys @ Commanders u45.5
Are the Dallas Cowboys the worst team in the league? Not quite, but with Cooper Rush or Trey Lance under centre, they're definitely getting close to it, and as 10.5-point underdogs this week, I think it's safe to say the bookies aren't expecting them to score many this week either.
If they only put up a maximum of 10 as they have done in the last fortnight, then it would take 36 from the Commanders to clear this total and while I'm fully on the Jayden Daniels hype train here I don't think they'll be getting close to that amount despite the Cowboys defence being a huge let down this season.
NFL betting tips week 12 touchdown bet – Nico Collins @ 13/10
The Houston Texans came into the season with the expectation of walking over their division and putting up a good fight for the one-seed in the AFC but injuries have hurt them a lot this season, especially at wide receiver with Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs missing a lot of the season.
Diggs is out for the year, but Nico has been back a couple of weeks now and it looks like he's getting up to game speed once more. He had a 75-yard touchdown called back on the first play of the game last weekend, and I'm hoping his luck changes this week and he makes his way into the endzone against the Titans.
I think they'll win fairly comfortably, so we just need Joe Mixon to be stopped a couple of times and Nico to get his way open in the endzone.
NFL tips week 12 best player prop – Rachaad White o3.5 receptions @ 27/20
This line opened at 2.5 on Wednesday and as expected, has ticked up to the 3.5 that is usually on the board come Sunday morning, but this week, we're getting some tasty plus-money odds on White getting four catches, so while he's disappointed me a few times when I've backed it this year I'm tempted back in again.
The running back room in Tampa is a little congested, but White is still on the field for many downs, especially on third down. While he's not the best runner, he is very good at catching out of the backfield, as he did six times last weekend and has done in five of the nine games he's been active in this season.
The matchup tonight should help him get those dump-off passes from Baker Mayfield as they go up against the New York Giants, who lead the league in sacks per game so far this season, so they should be able to get pressure on the QB and leave him with no other option than to take the easy pass to the running back.
