Last Sunday, men’s tennis began what is quite possibly the most wide-open Grand Slam event in the past two decades.
With Novak Djokovic looking fragile, plus Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner and Daniil Medvedev all recently injured, who will prevail in Paris?
Read on for our French Open 2024 predictions, where we break down everything you need to know to make the best bets at Roland-Garros this week.
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Who Will Win the Men’s French Open in 2024?
No need for any preamble. You’ve heard the context: this Grand Slam is anyone’s for the taking. Will Djokovic come right? Are Sinner, Alcaraz and Medvedev fully healthy? Here’s who we say will win the French Open 2024.
Best Bet – Stefanos Tsitsipas @ 9/1
That’s right, we say it’s the Greek’s time to shine in Paris, with Stefanos Tsitsipas our top pick to win the French Open.
Roland-Garros is Tsitsipas’ second-best Grand Slam after the Australian Open. The 25-year-old has made the final here in 2021, as well as the semi-finals in 2020 and quarter-finals in 2023. In fact, you have to look as far back as 2018 to see the last time Tsitsipas didn’t make it to at least the round of 16 at the French Open.
Coming into Paris, he’s been one of the best men on European clay this year. Tsitsipas looked shaky at times in 2023, but that’s behind him now. A title in Monte-Carlo and final in Barcelona, which included big wins over the likes of Jannik Sinner, Alexander Zverev and Casper Ruud have proven that the Greek is back to his best.
We’re also high on Tsitsipas because of the draw he has. His seeded second week is Andrey Rublev (never been past a Grand Slam quarter-final), Carlos Alcaraz (hasn’t played since Madrid due to a forearm injury), Jannik Sinner (also hasn’t played since Madrid due to a hip injury).
Top his half of the draw, and we’re projecting Tsitsipas to come up against Zverev in the final. He owns a 10-5 lead in the pair’s head-to-head, including a win last month in Monte-Carlo.
Is it a controversial call to pick Tsitsipas, a two-time Grand Slam finalist and No. 9 seed, to win the French Open? Sure. Is there sound logic behind taking this lucrative wager? Absolutely.
So far, Tsitsipas has won his opening two matches at the French Open. He defeated Marton Fucsovics 7-6(7), 6-4, 6-1, before overcoming Daniel Atmaier 6-3, 6-2, 6-7(2), 6-4 on Wednesday.
Honourable Mention – Alexander Zverev @ 9/2
Another player we considered to go all the way in Paris is Alexander Zverev.
The German comes into the French Open off the back of a title in Rome. Historically, this is a very, very good sign. Rome is where players are looking to peak ahead of Roland-Garros, and has the most similar conditions to the Grand Slam. The fact that Zverev won here bodes well for the kind of form he’ll bring into the French Open.
Zverev’s big rival in his half of the draw is Djokovic. We’re not too worried about this eventuating as a semi-final, however, given how erratic the Serbian has been in 2024. Sure, he gets a bit of the benefit of the doubt because of his 24 Grand Slam titles, but it’s not enough for us to pick against Zverev.
We didn’t pick Zverev for several reasons, firstly, because of his likely final matchup against Tsitsipas. We see that as a bad head-to-head for the German, particularly because of the positive headspace Tsitsipas is in. Speaking of headspaces, there’s a big question mark about how Zverev will hold up across the course of Roland-Garros.
The No 4 seed is due to stand trial on May 31 for domestic abuse allegations. While he won’t be attending in person, this is a significant distraction. It’s an unknown quantity and makes us shy away from a bet on Zverev.
Zverev defeated Rafael Nadal in his opening match at the French Open, besting the 14-time champion 6-3, 7-6(5), 6-3. He then saw off Belgian Daniel Goffin in the second round on Thursday, winning 7-6(4), 6-2, 6-2.
Best Dark Horse Bets at Roland-Garros 2024
Tsitsipas and Zverev are our top French Open 2024 predictions, but what about some of the more outside chances at the title? Here are some of the dark horses we think could be worth a wager at the French Open this year:
Casper Ruud @ 17/2
Hard to consider Ruud a genuine dark horse, but his odds of 17/2 have him in that category for us. The Norwegian leads the ATP Tour for wins in 2024 (35-9 heading into Roland-Garros). He’s also had arguably the strongest clay season so far, with two titles and a final since April.
He comes to the French Open high on match time, having just claimed the silverware in Geneva on Saturday. It’s 50/50 whether this means he’ll keep the good times rolling, or flame out because of too much tennis later on in Paris.
To win, he’ll likely need to see off Taylor Fritz, Djokovic, Zverev, and the winner of Alcaraz, Sinner and Tsitsipas. However, throw in an upset of Djokovic, plus poor health to Sinner and Alcaraz, and suddenly Ruud’s second week looks like Tommy Paul, Zverev and then Tsitsipas.
Very winnable, particularly given Ruud has made three Grand Slam finals already.
So far, Ruud has won his opening match against Brazil's Filip Meligeni Alves 6-3, 6-4, 6-3. He then survived Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the second round, edging the Spaniard 7-6(5), 1-6, 6-3, 4-6, 6-3 on Thursday.
Andrey Rublev @ 28/1
Rublev is another great dark horse option, simply because he’s a known quantity.
While the rest of the tennis world is burning, Rublev is just doing his thing. You can count on him making the quarters like clockwork–after all, he’s done it an incredible 10 times before. There will also be no pressure on him to do anything spectacular from this point onwards, given he’s zero from 10 at this stage of a Grand Slam.
Rublev’s possible run to the title would look like Tsitsipas, Alcaraz, Sinner then Zverev. He’s 6-5 with Tsitsipas in the head-to-head, Alcaraz and Sinner may have health issues, and Zverev is facing jail time plus is known to crack under pressure. Worth a bet at 28/1? You bet it is.
So far, Rublev has made the third round, defeating Taro Daniel 6-2, 6-7(3), 6-3, 7-5 in round one and Pedro Martinez 6-3, 6-4, 6-3 in round two.
French Open 2024 Predictions and Betting Tips
The beauty of betting on tennis is there’s so much more to wager on than an outright winner. Here are a few of the other French Open 2024 predictions we have this fortnight:
Bottom Half to Win @ 8/11
Betting on the winner of the French Open to come from the bottom half of the draw is a smart play. This nets you a whole host of big names in your corner, including Alcaraz, Sinner and Tsitsipas, plus our dark horses Rublev.
It’s a conservative wager at 8/11, but one that gives you multiple paths to receiving a payout on June 9.
Alexander Zverev to Reach the Final @ 11/4
While we aren’t picking Zverev to win the French Open, we do think the German has brilliant odds of making the final.
His two major obstacles along the way will be Djokovic and Ruud. Djokovic has more question marks hovering over him than a police interrogation, while Ruud has played an incredible amount of tennis, and might just fizzle against the physical Zverev.
With a win in Rome under his belt, plus plenty of experience now as a 27-year-old, there’s every chance Zverev gets to the final match in Paris. And heck, if he wins it all, you’ll still get paid.
Who Are the Men’s Favourites at Roland-Garros in 2024?
You’ve heard our French Open 2024 predictions, now it’s time to see what the bookies say. Here are the men’s French Open odds from bookmaker bet365 ahead of the day six starting this Friday:
Men’s French Open Odds 2024:
- Carlos Alcaraz @ 9/4
- Jannik Sinner @ 3/1
- Novak Djokovic @ 4/1
- Alexander Zverev @ 9/2
- Casper Ruud @ 17/2
- Stefanos Tsitsipas @ 9/1
- Holger Rune @ 25/1
- Daniil Medvedev @ 25/1
- Andrey Rublev @ 28/1
Clearly, bookmaker bet365 doesn’t share our concerns about Alcaraz, Djokovic and Sinner. The trio lead the betting ahead of the French Open, returning between 9/4 and 4/1 to win the year’s second Grand Slam. Interestingly, after each completed their first two matches, Sinner has overtaken Djokovic as second favourite in the betting odds.
Our favourites to win–Zverev, Tsitsipas and Ruud–come in fourth, fifth and sixth in the odds. They’re still well within reach of the top pack, however, paying 9/2, 9/1 and 17/2 to win. From here, however, the odds begin to lengthen.
Rublev, Daniil Medvedev and Holger Rune are in serious dark horse territory, each returning 25/1 or above to win the French Open.
2024 French Open Seeds – Men’s Draw
That’s what the bookies think, but what about the tournament’s actual seeding? We’ve done a deep dive into this in another article, but here’s a quick overview of the 2024 French Open seeds this year:
- Novak Djokovic
- Jannik Sinner
- Carlos Alcaraz
- Alexander Zverev
- Daniil Medvedev
- Andrey Rublev
- Casper Ruud
- Hubert Hurkacz
- Stefanos Tsitsipas
- Grigor Dimitrov
Will this year’s seeding match up with the results? We expect not.
Best Bets to Make on the French Open 2024
As we mentioned, there are so many exciting ways to bet on tennis. Wagering on an outright winner often generates lucrative returns, but can take awhile to deliver a pay out too.
For those who prefer a more immediate return, here are a few bets to make on the French Open 2024 today:
- Sinner -8.5 handicap vs Kotov @ 8/11
- Alcaraz to win 3-1 vs Korda @ 9/4
- Swiatek -7.5 handicap vs Bouzkova @ 11/10
Each of these matches are being played in the third round of the French Open this Friday. Get your bets in quick to receive a healthy payout – or wager on some of our outright winner predictions, and wait a little longer to win big!
Don't forget to check out our analysis of the who will win the women's French Open as well, plus a break down of the top female seeds.
Bren is our resident Kiwi, and has been playing or watching sports down under in New Zealand for the better part of three decades. With 12+ years experience as a professional writer, Bren loves to dive deep into all things sport to bring the best betting analysis and predictions here at Mr Fixits Tips.
