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Racing at Sandown was a painful watch, it looked like terrible conditions out there, with horses being severely tired. Es Perfecto made me look like a mug, I thought that yesterdays race was a perfect opportunity for him to get a win, but he went and did the complete opposite by finishing in last spot. The same can be said about the Gary Moore horse in the opener who also ran a stinker, and Jipcot was placed in the Imperial Cup after plugging on well when being held up in last place, but didn't have the stamina compared to the two ahead of him.
Warwick 4:10 – Sporting Ace
It is a shame that Volcano isn't running in this race as this is the race he has won the last three renewals of and that has seen them name the race after him, Volcano Handicap Chase. This looks like a tough race to call, but I really don't fancy the majority of the horses in the race and I've ended up siding with the top weight, Sporting Ace.
I believe that the quality of races that Sporting Ace has been running in will serve him well for this race. He has been running in Class 3 races for the most part in recent runs, apart from a run in 2nd/8 in Class 4 when finishing behind a well-handicapped horse in Here Comes McCoy. He is a proper staying chaser, and though he didn't quite show that when he ran at the Sussex National at Plumpton, he has been running on strongly in his other races, including his win at Chepstow and his most recent run when finishing behind yet another well-handicapped horse. He really needs testing ground for him to be seen to best effect, and that was the reason for the poor performance at Plumpton as the trainer said the ground was drying out and was riding slower than the official description, but he proved that it was just a bad run on the day as his two most recent runs has been a return to form.
There is a chance that he will bump into another well-handicapped horse, but over today's trip, the unexposed types don't look to be suited by the trip. Gerico Ville was legless at Fontwell when tried over a similar trip, and although he was staying on at Plumpton over 3m 1f last time out, that Fontwell run leaves a sour taste. Bretney stays this trip, but at his age and off a career-high mark, he has a lot to prove. Glance From Clover looked very tired on testing ground over 3m 1f last time out, so despite him carrying bottom-weight, he doesn't look well suited for today's assignment. Track And Trace was pulled up at Exeter when running over this trip, he ran well at Catterick the time before, but last time out was an underwhelming run.
??
Santa Anita -Race 8…Green Up 6/1 Bet365 ***
Still lightly raced he won after after a lay off on the ‘Turf Downhill’ course by 4 lengths and this distance looks an obvious move looking at that race. Jockey Valazquez is on him again which helps. Think it’s a tight race we’re Adare Manor is rightly favourite but not at 6/4. No 5 Desert Dawn I’ve left out the ‘Side bet’ has a squeak at 8/1
*+ Side bet -Combo forecast No: = 2 -6- 3
Turfway -Race 3…All I Want Is You 9/1 ***
If was on Turf he be a lot shorter, this is his first go on A.W BUT workouts look very good! ? ?
Forecast helps ease the damage but both picks lost
I picked my nose Just now and pulled out a big winner ?
Laurent barbarin’s Sunday tips ??
1-2 and 8-11. ???
Surely paid tipsters shouldn’t be posting long odds on shots as tips should they
12.40 PAU
ASSIER (5-1 bet365)
15.07 COMPIEGNE
SEA SALINAS (1-2 bet365)
16.17 COMPIEGNE
L’INDOMPTABLE (8-11 bet365)
10-11 or EVENS should be a bare minimum odds to be posted for horse racing as there are hidden forces at work against the common punter.
Fiddling in other words so posting a 1-2 shot Lauren ??
Mange tout Rodney
One for the mums out there ! 4;52 compiegne- day off 7/1 ?
Chuck in Saint Godfrey with those 2 and it might be worth doing !
Agree with you Elvis ,paying some tipster for money on shots scandalous.
Something i would never do is pay tipsters.
Ireland Alexander out again 10:50 dortmund think Thor hammer Hansen has another 2 rides maybe worth keeping an eye on he seems to do alright on what he’s given
Before I give my Ultima thoughts I thought it would be helpful to put up some pointers for all the h’cap races.
1. Since 2014 10yr olds have recorded 6 wins from 53 races (11%) but that is from 195 runners so a 3% strike rate.
So Avoid 10yr olds.
2. Horses carrying less than 11st have won 34% of races while those carrying over is 66%.
If we go a bit deeper and work out the average weight in each race stick within 7lbs of the average. Horses winning outside that range equates to a 3% strike rate (7 winners from 164 horses).
7lbs either side of the average weight.
3. Avoid anything off a lower mark than its last win. 4 from 82 strike rate (4.8%)
4. Horses who failed to finish lto have just 11 wins from 78 races with 210 runners so Avoid those aswell.
ULTIMA
The Irish haven’t won the race since 2006 but they haven’t really targeted the race either with just 38 runners taking their chance since which is just over 2 horses per year. I think it’s because most that would normally run in the race stay home for the Irish National which is worth more however last year they came close with the 2nd and 4th and this year they have 3 of the first 4 in the betting so have a strong team this year.
I’ve so far backed 2 horses.
Chianti Classico for Kim Bailey who has been running consistently well all season and ticks most of the trends.
The other is The Goffer who was 4th last year in a stronger renewal than this years and carries 4lb less.
I will also have a small ew on Jungle Boogie on the day to avail of BOG. Yes he’s a total trend buster but he’s very lightly raced for his age but lto beat a 156 rated rival and only got 2lb uk tax for that so is in here off 152 which must give him an ew squeak. Currently 20/1.
Your on another level D C ! Hopefully you will be rewarded next week !
Hope we all are Dazz ?
Jungle Boogie going in the gold cup
So I see. Oh well
I won’t go on too much about the CH or the Mares as I just can’t see either fav being turned over.
Boodles
The last 10 winners were rated between 125-134.
Last 10 did NOT run in a Maiden or h’cap lto.
Did NOT carry top weight.
Willie Mullins yet to win the race.
I think Cossack Chach is going under the radar a bit here with JOB also having the current fav in the race. Is weighted to reverse placings with the other horses he’s previously faced that are also entered in the race and hasn’t run since Dec so comes here fresh.
The other I’ve backed is Karia Des Blaises 33/1 general, 40/1 skybet.
He already finished ahead of Ndaawi when 2nd to Miss Manzor. He’s 3lbs better off with the winner but is 5lbs better off with Ndaawi so just don’t understand the price.
Been given a word for englebert 4:50 Southwell 7/1 might put 10p e/w on it ?
NHC
I backed Salvador Ziggy very early and will be happy with a place finish but as we get closer to the race I’m leaning more and more towards Corbetts Cross.
Not certain if he will stay the trip and his jumping needs to be better but he’s the class horse in the race and if seeing out the trip should win.
DC
have you heard anything about Sir Gino not going to the festival now.drifting on the exchanges too.
I think he’s drifting to a more realistic price if I’m honest as the race is deeper than what many thought. The other reason is Salvador Mundi is also running according to David Casey. When that was announced at a preview night it was very noticeable that Hendo turned straight to Nico with raised eyebrows.
Salvador Mundi finished 1 1/2L 2nd to Sir Gino in France but now with Mullins could easily improve past SG.
Becoming a very interesting race now
Just one from me today
A Penny A Hundred 6/4 Limerick 2-35 just cant see this one beat .
Bookies trap of the day that one !
st cuthbert s cave 1.07 ew well done all winners yesterday
that’s racing for you dazzman 1979 sure yours will come in later on today
ruler of the river 1.35 ew
Well done AZZ
Typical I went for your first selection and not the second you are a tormentor azz ?
cheers jayel61
Tigrr 2-32 compiegne ??
11-2 win bet365
7-4 top 2 finish SKYBET
20-80 syake
DC
I would be some training performance by Mullins if he win the triumph with Salvador Mundi
Elvis
nice with annamix yesterday 9/2
Megan you can whip your lovin on me baby !
Nobody home 4-20 Limerick ??
7-1 win
6-4 top 3 finish
20-80 stake.
Goes well fresh.
Last seen beating clonmeen in October and that one has gone on to post form figures of 1-1-2 since.
Carries just 10-2 with the claimer which is a good job as this horse is 14 now.
In human terms 14 is about dazzmans age of 86
Tiggr wins , backed into 9-4 by the off ????
Nice one ?? was a good price early on as well
33/1 turns over the odds on fav ?
That Laurent chap should be ashamed and embarrassed if that’s the best he could come up with Shame on you ?
Aye, alright if they all hose up in a treble.
But if you tip a 1-2 shot on atr website as a single and it loses you don’t half look a mug.
Never mind , we all look mugs . I think a few of these odds on are just put there to stop people lumping on the real fav who knows . Never mind soon be summer and unbearable heat waves !
4:52 compiegne- day off 8/1
5:27 compiegne- darenix 6/1
Think I need a day off ?
well done all winners today
Callum Rodriguez !
Honour black man bit of a fox back in her day ?