Racing tips: Keen going Greek Order has to settle if he wants to win over 10f

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What a crazy ride by David Allan on Garden Oasis at Ayr last night. When I said he'd get an easy lead and set his own fractions, I didn't expect that. When the pack started to close on him I was thinking of some expletives in my head, but credit where credit is due, he gave him a belter of a ride and did get the fractions spot on.

Haydock 2:40 – Truthful 13/8 (1pt Bet365)

All of the hype of this race will revolve around Shagpyle (what a name) due to her being a half-sister to the stable legend, Pyledriver, but I wasn't too impressed with her performance that day even though it was a promising debut effort. She is by Frankel, and the Dam was good on soft ground, so it wasn't a surprise to see her relish the soft conditions at Ascot on debut, and based on that run I think she is going to be better on that type of ground. I think she will enjoy the extra furlong and a half as it was a good staying performance, but I worry about the ground and it wouldn't surprise me if she is pulled out and we get a big rule 4.

I like Truthful against Shagpyle and I think she made an equally as good of an impression as Shagpyle did, but the thing which I like the most is that she will handle the quick conditions, and that's for a fact. She is a full-sister to stablemate, Sea On Time who came to Haydock around this time last year and won her first race on the second appearance over today's trip on quick ground, and she hasn't looked back since. She has since won a further two races over 12f and has recorded an RPR of 110 on her last start, so I expect the same kind of trajectory for the career of Truthful. I thought she still learning on the job on her first run, but when the penny dropped she battled on very gamely. Based on that run, I wouldn't say she is going to be as strong of a stayer as Shagpyle, but Salisbury is a stiff track, so I expect her to get the extra 1.5F at Haydock, especially when I think the race might be a bit of a crawl.

Montevideo is the most likely front-runner, like your typical Johnston horses. However, I don't think she is a good stayer, so I expect Joe Fanning to turn this into a bit of a sprint, and I think that might suit Truthful who sat close to the pace last time.

Haydock 5:20 – Greek Order 11/10 (1pt)

This one might come to bite me in the behind as when a horse is a keen goer, going up in trip normally isn't ideal as they will pull their chances away within the first half of the race by not settling, but if he is calm and relaxed throughout the race I can't see how Greek Order loses unless Buick gives him a horrible ride.

This horse has bags of potential and it all depends on him growing up mentally, as he can be a very good racehorse at a decent handicapping level. He showed that he can win races when winning at Salisbury last time around, staying on powerfully under Ryan Moore, looking like he does need further, which is why in theory this is the correct move by going up to 10f. He is a horse who clearly handles the fast conditions and in a race which doesn't look particularly strong, other than Coverdale who has his best form on soft ground, it is very winnable, as his price would suggest.

I've tried to stay clear of short-priced horses in recent weeks, other than yesterday when the Gosden horse couldn't get past the front-runner, but sometimes if you think a horse is going to win you've got to go with it.

Despite the fact he is a short-priced horse and I do think he'll win, I'm going to play it safe and leave it at a 1pt win, just in case he decides to run keenly.

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