Racing tips: Espoir De Guye will put top weight doubters in their place at Newbury

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Lone Star ran out a very ready winner at Musselburgh yesterday, winning at drifted odds of 3/1. She's a mare in great form and will probably still be competitive off her new handicap mark when they get revised.

Loup De Maulde travelled nicely into his race, but didn't quite see the trip out as well as those in front of him. He managed to plug on and get fourth and get a place as there were enhanced places on offer with certain bookmakers, so I'm thankful he managed to cling on.

Bangor-on-Dee 1:58 – William Ewart 10/1 (0.5pt ew)

This race doesn't look full of quality, nor horses who are extremely well-handicapped. Broomfields Cave is at the head of the market, he has been running on strongly over shorter trips and has run well in defeat. Though this race doesn't look great, 2/1 is too short to get involved for a horse who doesn't have the most promising pedigree when it comes to a trip like this, with the Sire producing 2m 5f horses or shorter at best. The 7lb claimer will aid his chances, but I've gone for a pick at bigger odds.

William Ewart caught my eye in this lineup and I think the run last time out was to get a run into him, blow away the cobwebs from a previous 100-day absence and to try him out with him having a recent wind-op. I think this trip is what he needs, similar to Broomfields Cave, he has been running on nicely over shorter trips, but he has a better-staying pedigree than that horse, with the Dam staying close to this trip on heavy ground and the Sire has produced some three milers. Jack Tudor is the main man for Christian Williams and he is at Bangor today, so on paper, you'd say that this won't win due to him not having the ride, but Nick Schofield has been used by Christian quite a bit in recent times and is a usual for the owners of this horse. Nick has ridden 39 times for Sue Howell (owner) and has won on 6 occasions, producing a +27.08 profit to level stakes.

The form of his recent runs looks decent in this type of race. The first run at Hereford has seen the Brian Ellison horse win again on the flat and over hurdles, the third horse has won since and been placed on multiple occasions. His run after, also at Hereford, saw the winner follow up and win again and the fifth horse has been placed three times since and most recently winning by 6L at Fontwell. On that basis, 12/1 seems well overpriced.

Newbury 1:30 – Atlanta Brave 6/1 (1pt ew 4pl)

A tricky start to the Newbury card in a 12-runner handicap Class 3, but I think 6/1 seems fair enough value for Atlanta Brave and odds I am more than happy to get stuck into at an EW price, especially with the extra places on offer.

This horse has done well in his first three hurdle races to date, being kept in novice company, winning two of the three and finishing a 0.75L second on debut. The run at debut was a good start to his career, finishing behind a Paul Nicholls horse who was 1/2F that day and has since won a handicap by 6L off a mark of 114, now being rated 124. The front two pulled well clear that day and the third who was a fair bit behind has since won off a mark of 102, and ran well off 109, so it's a decent yardstick of form. Atlanta Brave then beat a couple of decent-looking novices, the third has since won and the second runs at Bangor today, as well as the 5th winning since in handicap company. Atlanta then won when carrying a penalty at Hereford on deep ground, the form of that isn't spectacular but the runner-up has finished second on his next two runs. Though this horse has won over 2m 5f on testing ground, I think he is better over slightly shorter, so today's trip will be about right for him. He does stay the trip well, especially on soft ground, and I think a mark of 125 is workable.

Kerry Lee is having a phenomenal season and it shows that she has her horses in great form and places her horses well. She has been operating at a 22% SR this season, and a 40% in the last 14 days, with 2 wins from 5 runners. This horse is owned by Will Roseff, and he also owns Nemean Lion who is with Kerry as well, that horse has won a Grade 2 this season, and you better believe these two horses would've been working together, so they will have a gauge how he compares to that horse and how good he is. This horse had Grade 1 entries before Cheltenham started, but they decided to skip those, and that's probably because they think they can exploit his current handicap mark.

Newbury 2:05 – Espoir De Guye 7/2 (2pt)

Carrying top weight is never the ideal situation, especially on testing ground for obvious reasons but I do think Espoir De Guye has a lovely chance in this race.

This horse was previously trained by Venetia Williams but moved to Paul Nicholls' yard recently. He underwent a wind-op before his stable debut and though he finished 5th/7 in a Grade 3 over today's C&D, I thought it was a good return to the track and a nice starting point for Paul. He was running on ground far too quick for him, and it looked like it was a prep run, get some fitness under his belt and hopefully get a few pounds dropped by the handicapper for today's race. He got into contention in that race when turning for home, but did drop back quickly, in the style of a horse who needed the run. The handicapper has dropped him 4 lbs for that run, and that leaves him on a mark of 140.

A handicap mark of 140 brings him into contention for this handicap. He has previously won off 145, when carrying 11st 12lbs at Warwick on heavy ground, winning by 7L. He has won off 144, carrying 11st 12lbs at Ascot on soft ground. This horse loves the testing ground and is proven when carrying big weights in handicaps, and I think he could be too classy for some of the younger and more unexposed horses.

Paul is way ahead in the trainer's Championship, but he will want to keep winning these decent pot handicaps so that Dan Skelton doesn't get back into the frame. Dan has a live chance in the Grand National with Le Milos, and if he wins that, then the championship gets quite close, so he'll be wanting to win this race and has won this 3 times in the last eight years, including last year with Lalor, who carried top weight.

Kelso 2:25 – Jet Legs 10/3 (1pt)

The horse at the bottom of the weights, Jet Legs, makes the most appeal in this race.

This horse is still relatively unexposed over 3m, having raced over that trip just three times, wish has seen him win his last race and finish as runner-up the two times before that. He looked like he stayed every inch of the trip last time out, so the extra 2f today seems worth a go. He is versatile on the ground, having run well on soft and winning on good last time around. The form seems quite strong albeit done at a low level, but I think running off 10st 3lbs with Patrick Wadge's 5lb claim makes him a great bet in this today.

He travels really strongly through his race, and I can see him coming into contention in this race on the bridle, and it'll be a matter of whether he stays the trip or not. I think the jockey booking of Wadge is eye-catching. Martin Todhunter has never used Patrick before, but with Patrick flying through the ranks as an apprentice he is stealing 5lbs every time he rides. He has been really impressive this year as a jockey, and his last fourteen days show that, as he is riding at a 40% SR with 6 wins from 15 rides.

Kelso 3:35 – Doyen Breed 5/1 (1pt ew)

I tipped up Doyen Breed a couple of races back when he was running over 3m 7f at Musselburgh. He was pulled up that day, wasn't at the races, his jumping fell apart, and he didn't stay the trip out either. Based on that run you'd have given him no chance in this, but he returned to a decent level of form last time out at Doncaster when finishing 2nd in a three-runner race over 2m 5f behind a good operator in Minella Drama.

Sandy Thomson is a great trainer, and a great target trainer for the big staying races like this, so it doesn't surprise me to see him have a couple in this race. However, this is surely his main hope for this with usual stable jockey, Ryan Mania doing the steering instead of his Grand National hope, Hill Sixteen, who will be running in this as a prep for the big race.

This horse has run well at the track before, recording a few runner-up finishes and he goes on any ground, so the rain which is due to come won't be an inconvenience for him. He's looking well-treated off a handicap mark of 131 and I think he can run a big race in this.

Kelso 5:20 – Bertie's Ballet 8/1 (0.5pt ew)

Bumper races are often a nightmare, especially when trying to dissect the form, but I get the impression that today's race has been the long-term plan for Bertie's Ballet for a very very long time.

It's strange to see him remain as a bumper horse after he was running in bumpers late last year, but he ran in this race 12 months ago and finished 3rd behind a Nicky Henderson winner. He made a return to the track after 317 days and ran a belter at Carlisle behind Bullets Hill who runs in this race today, and I thought that was a great prep run and return to the track. He would've needed the run that day, there's no questioning it, and he will be coming into this race 100% ready. Whether he's good enough to win, that's the question, but when a trainer lays a horse out for a specific race they always have to be respected.

The southern raiders will always be fancied to run well when they come to the north, but I don't think Go West is your usual Paul Nicholls bumper horse who is out of this world, I don't get the impression he's that good of a horse and he's 7/2 at the top of the market, and when I see Bertie's Ballet at 8/1 I think he is a great EW alternative, especially considering he was placed in this race last year as a 4yo.

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