Racing tips: 6lb rise in the weights won’t be enough to stop Patient Dream

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It was always going to be a big ask to follow in the footsteps of Cairnzy after how well he did during my time away but 4/4 on my first day back is a good start.

I'm not going to blow my own horn on the back of yesterday, it wouldn't seem right. The start of the new year has been rough for me. I've had many near-misses (as we all do) and things haven't fallen right.

Hopefully, I can kick on from yesterday and hit some form before Cheltenham. Thanks as always for the comments. Hopefully, some of you got on a few of them, and maybe that lucky one did all four in an accumulator which did pay just under 140/1, and before someone asks, I did indeed back the four-fold, as I always do with all my selections.

Punchestown 2:15 – Rebel Ivy 9/1 (1pt)

I could be going a bit crazy with this selection as you'd imagine the horses with the ‘class' edge will come to the fore, but Mares races aren't as simple as that as we've seen over the years. On paper, you'd say Brandy Love is the most likely winner. I think the time off the track is a big concern, as is the weight, and at the prices, I wouldn't like to be backing her. I've gone for a horse who will need to improve to win this and that is REBEL IVY.

At first, I thought using the betting w/o favourite market would be the play, but 9/2 doesn't quite tickle my fancy and I'd rather go balls to the wall and go for the straight win. This horse is running off a handicap mark of 131. Though handicap ratings mean very little in Graded races, it goes to show the amount of improvement this mare needs to win, but hear me out.

She is already a Listed winner from this season, coming back in October at Limerick on soft ground. She demolished them that day, and though people will say take that form line with a pinch of salt, I totally understand as she had Heaven Help Up in behind by 10L and Queens Brook was further back in third. Both horses might've needed the run that day, but they were beaten by a long way to suggest that was the only reason. This mare has run once since which was at Navan in a decent pot handicap which saw her finish 3rd. She travelled like a dream that day and looked like the winner from a long way out, but was beaten by a well-handicapped one in HMS Seahorse. I thought that was a cracking run against the boys and considering she only went up 2 lbs for that run, leaving her on a mark of 131, surely you'd think connections would go for another handicap as she's got to be well-in. The fact they haven't suggests they are confident that this race is winnable and I tend to agree with them, especially considering she's already got black-type which is strongly needed for mares to become broodmares later in life.

As I mentioned earlier, Brandy Love is carrying a big weight and coming off a huge layoff of 311 days. Surely, this race is a prep run for Cheltenham and she won't be fully wound up. She might still win this not being 100% but there are big question marks hanging over her head. Queens Brook is a horse I tipped up for Cheltenham and on other occasions. She just seems a strange horse who flatters to deceive and I think she is a very frustrating horse and is also worth taking on.

Doncaster 1:50 – Barton Knoll 9/4 (1pt)

This is a tricky little race as every horse comes into it not being in great form on the bare look of things other than Drumconnor Lad, but he is making a return from 281 days off the track and is now a 13-year-old!

In my opinion, BARTON KNOLL could roll back the years (not a spring chicken at the age of 11) at his favourite track and beat the younger horses who don't look particularly good.

I watched Barton Knoll's last race back in November thinking he was going to win, he didn't jump particularly great but he travelled extremely well and was still pitching for the win with a couple to jump. He was booked for second place until the gas tank emptied and he ended up finishing last of five, which wasn't a true reflection of his performance that day. He is a horse who runs this track extremely well. He has raced here on six occasions, five over fences, which has yielded three wins. When he does complete (had two unseats) he tends to win, with the only other occasion being last time around where he looked like the winner until getting tired close home, so based on that he surely has a great chance if staying on his feet today.

He is best seen on good ground, so the expected 1mm of rain isn't ideal, though it's not a substantial amount, but if the ground was to turn to good-to-soft, it would still be riding on the good side of things, which should be perfectly okay for him. The younger horses in the race aren't anywhere near as good as the opposition he faced last time around and have some questions to answer. The top-weight Drumconnor Lad has been a great horse for connections, but at the age of 13 on his seasonal comeback, this would be some training performance by Adrian Keatley to get him in the winner's enclosure. He is obviously well-treated on past exploits, but his best times are definitely behind him, even in a race like this.

Doncaster 2:25 – Lepashe 7/1 (1pt)

A bit of a leap of faith is required with LEPASHE as he is making his handicap debut and I'm banking on him being well handicapped off an opening mark of 109.

From his first two starts over hurdles, he didn't show anything and was placed at the back of the TV, but when they dropped him in trip to 2m 4f at Doncaster he ran a belter from odds of 200/1. It was strange to see that he travelled well into that race as he was a PTP winner, and looked like a real stayer in that win over 3m on a stamina-sapping PTP track, and considering he looked one-paced on his first two starts, but maybe those first two runs were to get him on a low handicap mark, which is so often the case.

I think this horse is better than his opening mark of 109 and it's interesting that connections have opted for this race when they could've easily gone for a lower-graded race and racked up a few wins as they went through the handicap, but they must be bullish. Robbie Dunne wasn't harsh on him in the closing stages last time out, he jumped the second last like a snooker table and Robbie just sat on him for the final furlong or so, and even when he did that the horse looked like he wanted to go again, and looked like he had a bit left in the tank.

Horses off low weights have done well in this race in recent times, with four of the last winners running below 10st 12lbs, and with those odds being 16/1, 10/1, 7/1 and 5/1 so I can see a big run from Sam Allwood's lightly raced 6yo.

Though some bookmakers are offering three places for this race, I think going EW isn't worth it as he'll either win as he is well handicapped or he'll run a stinker and I've read it all wrong, I can't see an in-between.

Ludlow 3:10 – Patient Dream 2/1 (2pt)

I'm going to keep this one short and sweet. If PATIENT DREAM turns up the same form as last time around at Market Rasen and William Maggs employs the same front-running tactics, then this horse should be very difficult to beat. He has only gone up 6 lbs for an easy success, and considering how well he jumped, there's no reason why he can't follow up on that success. He was a useful flat horse, albeit did screw me over at Epsom, but we'll let him off if he gets us the win today and 2/1 seems an incredibly generous price.

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