IT'S top v bottom in France’s Ligue One at 6pm today but there are many reasons to think Troyes can pick up a result at home to PSG.
Troyes are six points adrift of safety after losing a crucial relegation battle with Nancy last weekend. While that defeat will serve as a bitter blow the side that came third in Ligue Two last year will carry on battling to the very end.
Jean-Marc Furlan’s men will take heart from the fact they’re back on home soil today – a place where they’ve lost just one of their last eight fixtures and only four in total all season. They have already beaten second placed Marseille at Stade de l’Aube this term and in their last match there they held third-placed Saint-Etienne to a 2-2 draw.
Granddi N’Goyi is likely to miss out with a hamstring problem but other than that they are pretty much at full strength, something which cannot be said for the visitors.
Zlatan Ibrahimovic is serving his third suspension of the campaign and he is a huge miss given he’s scored 26 of PSG’s 56 league goals. A further negative against the Parisiens is this is their fifth game in 16 days and you’ve got to wonder how much they left out on the pitch at the Nou Camp on Wednesday night.
Carlo Ancelotti will of course rotate his team somewhat, but the whole squad will likely be on a downer after their Champions League exit, especially as they came so close to making it through to the final four.
Obviously winning Ligue One will go some way to make up for that disappointment but they do have a seven-point cushion over Marseille so it’s not like they can’t afford to slip up.
The match in Paris between these two finished 4-0 to the home team but it will be much closer today. Troyes are fighting for their lives and are generally solid in front of their own fans, whereas PSG have had a hard couple of weeks and are without their star player.
That’s why, with Paris Saint-Germain trading as low as 1.68 I have to make them my lay of the day.
Recommended Bet
Lay PSG v Troyes @ 1.68
Resident football tipster at Scotland's most read newspaper, the Daily Record, for over 20 years and proud host of one the best betting communities on the web with daily betting tips.
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ENGLAND: Premier League
3.00 K/O
Arsenal V Norwich
OVER 3.5 GOALS ** WIN 3-1 **
ENGLAND: Blue Square North
3.00 K/O
Worcester V Hinckley
OVER 3.5 GOALS ** WIN 3-1
ENGLAND: Blue Square North
3.00 K/O
Bradford PA V Droylsden
OVER 3.5 GOALS ** WIN 5-0 **
GERMANY: Bundesliga
2.30 K/O
Furth V Dortmund
OVER 3.5 GOALS ** WIN 1-6 **
GERMANY: Bundesliga
2.30 K/O
BAYERN MUNICH V NURNBERG
OVER 3.5 GOALS ** WIN 4-0 **
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ENGLAND: Championship
3.00 K/O
Peterborough V Watford
OVER 2.5 GOALS ** WIN 3-2 **
ENGLAND: Blue Square Premier
3.00 K/O
Braintree V Mansfield
OVER 2.5 GOALS ** WIN 2-1 **
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********* SINGLE OF THE DAY *******************
************* BOLTON WIN **********************
Bristol City 3.05 v Bolton 2.5; The Draw 3.5
Recommended Bet: Back Bolton to win @ 2.5
** WIN ** WIN ** WIN ** WIN ** WIN ** WIN ** WIN **
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ASIAN HANDICAP DOUBLE
BAYERN MUNICH -2 @ 2.12 ** WIN **
BORUSSIA DORTMUND -2 @ 2.68 ** WIN **
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Millwall v Wigan
Saturday 17:15, live on ESPN
Recommended Bets
Back Wigan to beat Millwall @ 1.88
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.9
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LAY OF THE DAY
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Recommended Bet
Lay Paris St-G v ESTAC Troyes @ 1.68
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LAYS OF THE WEEKEND
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Lay Malaga to beat to beat Osasuna @ 2.14
Lay AC Milan to beat Napoli @ 2.18
Lay Heracles to beat Groningen @ 2.06
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Milesey
Good shouts there Milesey…nice stuff. Did Bolton myself and Cliftonville..thot they had drwan 2-2 but tghey snatched a winner! ;-)
TROYES O PSG 1
Not to be, Troyes gave it their best shot…… PSG 10 points clear at the top.
Milesey
HORSE RACING TIPS
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SUNDAY 14TH APRIL 2013
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3.05 LEOPARDSTOWN
DECLARATION OF WAR 1-1 bet365
He has won four times from 7f to 1m 3f on soft – heavy ground and on the all-weather. Won on his latest outing when 11-10fav in the Group 3 Diamond Stakes at Dundalk over 1m 3f in October last year, beating Along Came Casey by 1/2l.
4.15 LEOPARDSTOWN
BATTLE OF MARENGO 4-6 bet365
He has won three times from 7f to 1m on ground varying from good to soft – heavy. Won on his latest outing when 4-9fav in the Group 2 Juddmonte Beresford Stakes at Curragh over 1m (soft – heavy) in September last year, beating Orgilgo Bay by 3 1/2l.
3.10 WINCANTON
COME ON ANNIE 9-2 bet365
Successful in two hurdle races at 2m and 2m 1f on soft and heavy ground. Beaten 1l by Nicene Creed when second of 8 at 3-1fav on her latest outing in a hurdle race at Chepstow over 2m (heavy) last month. Has won at Taunton and Ffos Las this season.
4.20 WINCANTON
JUMP CITY 11-8 bet365
He has won two hurdle races and two chases from 2m to 2m 3f on good and soft ground. Beaten 3 1/2l by Hunt Ball when second of 6 at 11-4 on his latest outing in a chase at Taunton over 2m 3f (good to firm) earlier this month. Has won at Exeter and Newton Abbot this season.
RACE IN FOCUS – WINCANTON 3.45
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Qualviro was a winning hurdler in Ireland and added to tally for this yard back over timber at Ludlow in February. Race worked out better than expected, so disappointing he couldn’t do better at Ffos Las latest.
Den of Iniquity ended short spell with Ferdy Murphy in the perfect fashion back hurdling at Perth in April. In touch when unseating 3 out at Newbury last month but failed to build on it next time.
Brough Academy won a Kilbeggan bumper for Joanna Morgan and only second start for this yard when taking 2¼m novice hurdle in January 2012. Things not gone to plan since, though, and tried in a visor now.
Sparrow Hills improved when winning pair of handicap hurdles here in January 2011. Yet to fire back from an absence, though, and hopes resting on the return to this track reviving his fortunes.
Rigolo Ville won a bumper in France and also placed in a maiden hurdle there back in 2010. Some promise on first 2 starts for this yard but recent handicap debut was underwhelming.
Dalavar made the frame all 3 starts in bumpers, but not knocked about over hurdles. Disappointing on handicap debut last month but too soon to write him off and one to consider in this field.
Be My Light takes plenty of driving, but consistency hard to knock, making the frame regularly over hurdles/fences since a Uttoxeter success in April 2011. Minor placing might be his best hope.
Hatters River was no great shakes in Irish points but hinted at promise in novice hurdles and improved efforts in handicaps the last twice. Remains open to improvement and no surprise to see him go well.
Only Vintage is a veteran who won at Folkestone last January, but out of sorts this year. Lowly mark to try and exploit back over hurdles but comes with more than his share of risks attached.
Kastani Beach was modest in bumpers/over hurdles in Ireland, but won a point in October, and good placed efforts in handicap hurdles the last twice. Up in the weights but should continue to go well.
Old Way won maiden hurdle in the mud at Hereford (17f) in early 2011, but hasn’t kicked on since sent handicapping. Should run his race but likely to find a few of these too strong.
Mystic Appeal was a fair maiden hurdler last term. Shaped quite well when fifth in C&D handicap on reappearance, but gone the wrong way since. Hard to know what to expect but market support would look encouraging.
1. Hatters River
2. Dalavar
3. Kastani Beach
Hatters River has been knocking on the door of late and can gain a first success. Of the remainder, there may be more to come from Dalavar, while Kastani Beach has run with credit the last twice and has place claims once again.
IRISH RACE IN FOCUS – LEOPARDSTOWN 3.40
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Bunairgead has improved with each of her 3 starts as a 2-y-o, off the mark at the third attempt in C&D maiden in November. Might have more to come this year but has a bit to find if she is to land this.
Greek Goddess bettered her debut effort when taking a heavy-ground Killarney maiden in August. Came up short twice in this company afterwards and stable look to have stronger claims with Snow Queen.
Harmonic Note showed plenty of promise on debut and steady improvement in nurseries in the autumn, off the mark at Dundalk in November. Fair third on reappearance and blinkers now refitted.
Hint of A Tint is from a good family and created good impression when landing maiden at The Curragh in July. That form solid enough and open to plenty of improvement this time round. Respected.
Liberating knew what was required when making a winning debut in 5f Cork maiden this time last year. Series of consistent efforts afterwards but improvement needed if she is to take this.
Pop Art is an expensive purchase who made winning debut at Naas in October. That form has worked out well enough but it’s still a far cry from what will be needed in this company.
Rawaaq’s win on debut is looking like strong form and she was back on track when creditable second of 7 in Group 3 in September. Capable of making an impact in this sort of company and one to consider.
Snow Queen got off the mark in first-time cheekpieces in 7f minor event at the Curragh in August, and improved to land Naas nursery in October. That form gives her an obvious chance now back up in grade.
What Style has plenty of stamina on the distaff side of her pedigree so encouraging that she had the speed to get the better of Snow Queen over C&D on debut in August. Open to stacks of improvement
1. What Style
2. Hint of A Tint
3. Snow Queen
What Style got the better of Snow Queen on her debut and although her opponent improved afterwards, it’s hard to believe she won’t progress herself. She can take this step up in class in her stride and prove too strong for another unbeaten filly in Hint Of A Tint.
LEOPARDSTOWN SUNDAY PREVIEW
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The Flat action in Ireland goes up a notch at Leopardstown this weekend, with Sunday’s card featuring two Group 3s and a couple of listed events, perhaps the most interesting of which is the Ballysax Stakes over one and a quarter miles.
Paddy Prendergast’s Sugar Boy heads the Timeform ratings and he promises to relish the extra furlong on his reappearance. He improved with experience during his two-year-old campaign, running to a smart level when readily completing a hat-trick in a listed race at this track in November, pulling over six lengths clear of Coolibah. Sugar Boy quickly showed himself to be a straightforward and likeable type last year and could be a spot of value against the likely favourite Battle of Marengo if fully wound up for this.
Battle of Marengo sits a couple of pounds behind Sugar Boy on the adjusted ratings, but does have the Timeform ‘p’ for improvement, and his overall profile isn’t too dissimilar to that rival’s. The son of Galileo met with his only defeat in a maiden here on debut, but progressed into a smart performer after and rounded off a successful campaign when landing the odds in the Beresford Stakes at the Curragh. The penalty he received for that win could well prove to be the difference between him and Sugar Boy this time, and it’s hard to envisage the winner not coming from that pair.
The Leopardstown 2000 Guineas Trial Stakes marks the return of the exciting The United States and it will be a blow to his classic aspirations if he isn’t up to making a winning return in this listed event. Bred in the purple – by Galileo and out of the 114-rated mare Beauty Is Truth – The United States’ maiden win at the Curragh couldn’t have worked out much better, with four of the five immediately behind him going on to win next time out, and he’s open to significant improvement after just the one outing.
The fillies’ version of the race should be just as informative and it will come as no surprise that Aidan O’ Brien appears to have another strong player in this in the form of Snow Queen. Kept relatively busy at two years, she beat subsequent winner Ballyorban in a nursery at Naas when last seen and the return to seven furlongs shouldn’t be any inconvenience.
Her biggest threat could well come from the John Oxx-trained What Style, who actually got the better of her when landing a C&D maiden on her sole start last term. Whilst she created a good impression that day and is sure to progress in time, the Oxx yard are yet to have a winner this year, and Snow Queen could well reverse form on Sunday with the benefit of a recent gallop at the Curragh under her belt.
Milesey
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SUNDAY FOOTBALL TIPS
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Stoke v Manchester United
Sunday April 14, 14.05 GMT
Live on Sky Sports One
Stoke City are in the midst of a dire run of results and possibly for the first as manager, Tony Pulis is starting to come under real pressure from his own fans. Since beating Liverpool on Boxing Day, The Potters have picked up just six points from a possible 39 and they haven’t won since a 2-1 victory over Reading back at the start of February.
Away from the Britannia Stadium their form is at an all-time low – six defeats on the bounce – but it’s their performances in front of their own supporters that have perhaps been the most concerning. Stoke have built their success in the Premier League on not only being incredibly hard to beat at the Britannia, but also winning their fair share of games there. That has all changed in 2013 as they have won just one of seven and lost three – including defeat to the relegation threatened Aston Villa last time out.
Peter Crouch has generally been the talisman for the club but he’s only scored five goals this term and he hasn’t netted since January. Charlie Adam’s move from Liverpool hasn’t worked out as expected and the once fearsome defence have kept just one clean sheet in their last 10 on home soil.
Manchester United will be crowned the Premier League champions with games to spare but they did suffer a small setback on Monday night as they lost the Manchester derby at home by two goals to one. While City are still 12 points adrift, that result will have hurt Alex Ferguson and I expect his players to be sent out on to the pitch on Sunday with the so called ‘flea in their ear’.
That defeat to their noisy neighbours was their first in the league since November, however they were knocked out of the FA Cup by Chelsea the week before, although Ferguson surprisingly put out a weakened side at Stamford Bridge.
With just league games left to play and an easier fixture coming up on Wednesday, it is likely that Ferguson will play a near full strength team for this match. That makes the 1.63 about them to win a must back price given Stoke’s current woes. I just can’t see anything other than a United victory and Stoke will have to continue to look over their shoulder at the relegation zone.
Given Stoke’s troubles in front of goal and the fact that The Red Devils have kept three clean sheets in a row away from home in the league, I think backing United to keep a clean sheet is fantastic value at odds-against. It’s currently trading at around the 2.2 mark and with Nemanja Vidic back in the frame after injury, it’s a stand out price.
Robin Van Persie is going through his biggest goal drought in recent memory as he’s now failed to score in any of his last 10 for United. They say class is permanent and form is temporary though and he did score three times for his country during the recent international break. He can be backed at 5.3 to break the deadlock on Sunday and with penalty duties in his locker, it has to be worth an investment.
Recommended Bets
Back Man United @ 1.63
Back a Man United clean sheet @ 2.2
Back Robin Van Persie to score first @ 5.3
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Chelsea v Manchester City, Sunday 4:00, ITV1.
Match Odds: Chelsea 3.4, Manchester City 2.36, The Draw 3.5
This is unquestionably he more promising of the two FA Cup semi-finals, but if previous clashes between Rafael Benitez and Roberto Mancini are anything to go by, this won’t be a thriller.
The first two meetings between the two managers – one while Benitez was still in charge of Liverpool – ended in extraordinarily boring goalless draws. The league meeting at Stamford Bridge was one of the dullest matches of the Premier League campaign, although it was Benitez’s first match in charge of Chelsea, when he was encouraging caution and structure.
The recent contest at the City of Manchester Stadium once again saw Benitez select a cautious line-up. Rather than using his three creative talents – Oscar, Juan Mata and Eden Hazard – together, he pushed Ramires into the attacking trio. The Brazilian was used to offer a more mobile, combative option and signalled Chelsea wanted to play on the counter-attack – but Ramires had a disappointing game, with Hazard on the opposite threat a much bigger threat on the break.
That is Benitez’s crucial decision today – whether Ramires should be used as a holding midfielder, or wide on the right. Frank Lampard (the alternative in the deeper role) and Oscar are most at risk of missing out. Ordinarily, you’d expect Benitez to choose the more cautious route, but after Lampard played 90 minutes on a difficult plastic pitch at Rubin Kazan on Thursday, Oscar might be a better bet. Cesar Azpilicueta, rather than the more defensive-minded Branislav Ivanovic, should start at right-back.
Mancini has a similar dilemma – does he field Yaya Toure alongside Gareth Barry, or push Toure forward into a more advanced position, and introduce Javi Garcia as an extra holding midfielder? It’s always difficult to predict Mancini’s selections, and the fitness of David Silva will be key to his decision. The Spanish playmaker limped off towards the end of the 2-1 victory over Manchester United on Monday night, having starred in a central role. He should continue if 100% fit, but if not, Mancini may decide to move Toure forward – the extra protection afforded by Garcia will be helpful against Chelsea’s creators.
Elsewhere, expect James Milner to start on the right – and whereas he usually plays against Chelsea to track Ashley Cole up and down the line, at Wembley he might have a better attacking impact against back-up left-back Ryan Bertrand, so Milner is a decent shout for first goalscorer at 24.0. Samir Nasri did reasonably well against Manchester United, and while Sergio Aguero hit the headlines with his sensational late winner at Old Trafford, Carlos Tevez’s link-up play was excellent, and he deserves another start in what should be a tight, defensive-minded scrap.
My worry here is the lack of an intelligent deep-lying playmaker on either side. Lampard’s ball over the top of the Rubin Kazan defence for Fernando Torres on Thursday was sensational, but if both sides defend deep in two banks of four, I’m not sure these’s enough guile and ambition on the ball from the holding midfielders to work the ball into the final third.
Considering the previous contests between these two coaches – and with the game being played at a neutral venue, where both sides might be reluctant to take command of the game, it’s amazing to see Under 2.5 Goals available at around 2.0. Yes, there are a considerable number of attacking talents on show – but they’ll surely be asked to play cautious roles from the outsets, with the coaches leaving themselves attacking options on the bench as an option to change the game.
Of course, selection plays a big part. If Oscar is picked rather than Lampard (with Ramires’ position changing) or Mancini goes for four attackers and Toure in a deeper role, things might get exciting. The teamsheets will say much about both managers’ intentions – but unless there are any major surprises, backing Under 2.5 goals at 2.0 looks a fine bet.
Recommended bets:
Back James Milner to score first at 24.0
Back Under 2.5 goals at 2.0
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Central Coast Mariners vs Melbourne Victory
Sunday 08:00
It’s the second of the semi-finals in Australia and it couldn’t be simpler. The winner books themselves a place in next weekend’s Grand Final against the Wanderers, with the losers having to deal with falling at the final hurdle.
High pressure and high drama is assured as the Victory travel to the Bluetounge Stadium on Sunday morning with it all to play for…
The Mariners have had to use their squad to its fullest in recent weeks. Playing four games in sixteen days hasn’t come at the best of times in terms of preparation for this semi-final. With Graham Arnold shuffling the pack intelligently in their midweek AFC Champions League fixture, he has a strong and fresh selection of first team regulars chomping at the bit to secure a Grand Finals spot next Sunday.
The most notable absentee from Tuesday’s loss to Guizhou Renhe was golden boot winner and prolific striker Daniel McBreen. With a week’s rest under his belt as well as two goals in his last two outings, he is sure to be prominent in the waves of Mariners pressure that is expected in Gosport.
Another man missing the trip to China was midfielder Michael McGlinchey, who has arguably been the A-League stand-out player this season. Chipping in with six goals, three assists and being an ever present in the starting eleven, the Kiwi has had his best season to date with the Mariners.
With the record of playing the most finals series matches out of any team in history (sixteen) means the experience of the hosts will be invaluable, but the fact that only four of these have ended in victory will no doubt be present in their sub-conscious – something Arnold will no doubt try and use as an extra incentive for his side.
After an extra time victory over Perth in their elimination final, Melbourne Victory will no doubt feel relieved to be a part of semi-final weekend. After trailing at home for 90 minutes, an added time penalty converted by Mark Milligan was enough to force extra time, where a 94th minute winner scored by Archie Thompson sealed the 2-1 Victory at the AAMI Park. A more convincing performance will be needed to over-turn a confident Mariners outfit, and coach Postecoglou knows his defence are a constant concern.
Leaking 45 goals in the regular season and still finishing in third place was quite the achievement for the Victory. With personnel changes in the back four on a weekly basis it has proven hard for Postecoglou to know what his best formation is. After losing this fixture 6-2 earlier on in the season, it would be naive of the Victory boss to hope to outscore the hosts, but with youngster Marco Rojas having a dream season in front of goal, he might well be relied upon heavily come Sunday morning.
The history books have these two sides down as inseparable. With nine Victory wins, eight Mariners wins and seven draws you would be forgiven for thinking this one could go to penalties. However with the form Mariners are in as well as the hold they have had over their visitors in this season’s clashes, I can see Mariners nicking this one and sealing their place in next Sunday’s Grand Final.
Recommended Bet
Back the Mariners win @ 1.74
Back 3-1 @ 14.5
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PSV vs Ajax
Sunday 15:30
It’s squeaky bum time in the Netherlands. With four points separating the top four teams in the Eredivisie, points mean prizes in the last five games of the season and its Ajax’s to throw away. With a three point lead over their hosts PSV going into this fixture, reigning champions Ajax will know that avoiding defeat could go a long way to securing their 32nd Dutch title.
PSV have spent a majority of this season in top spot. With a relentless strike force scoring 88 goals paired with a competent defence, it looked like Dick Advocaat had the formulae spot on to stroll to their first title since 2008. Recent losses at the hands of teams like Zwolle and Heerenveen however have raised many eyebrows at the title credentials of Eindhoven, with many suggesting they have bottled their major chance.
With a plethora of striking options, Advocaat has had to rotate upfront all season. With eight forwards finding the net this season, it’s a headache that has been welcomed in Eindhoven especially seeing the results it has had on the pitch. Lens, Matavz and Wijnaldum all started last weekend away to Williem II with a 3-1 victory and will hope to keep their place in Sunday’s starting line up.
Without back to back victories in nine games, PSV have allowed Ajax to cruise to top spot after five wins on the spin, and with the season coming to an exciting climax it couldn’t have come at a better time. Hitting top spot for the first time four weeks ago, Frank de Boer’s men look to be peaking at the perfect time and with a favourable run in they look in a strong position to defend their Dutch crown.
With a midfield consisting of Siem de Jong and Christian Eriksen in top form, this partnership has become the envy of the rest of the league, if not Europe. With nineteen goals between them along with eighteen assists, they have been instrumental in Ajax’s successes so far this season.
With the league’s best strike force coming up against the best midfield, expect this to be a high tempo frantic affair. A home win would see PSV edge above their visitors on goal difference, where as an away win would see Ajax go six clear of PSV with four to play. With Vitesse and Feyenoord both facing tricky away ties, Ajax could well have one hand back on their Eredivisie title come Sunday evening.
Recommended Bet:
Back Ajax to win @ 3.2
Back over 3.5 goals @ 2.5
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Cagliari v Inter
The Italian newspapers this week have been full of the Inter President Massimo Moratti and his conspiracy theories regarding the make up of the top four. Moratti’s argument is that Milan have more money than Inter, and therefore that they were always destined to finish in a Champions League place. These passionate and pretty misguided comments followed Inter’s capitulation against Atalanta last week, a match in which we saw all of Inter’s recent failings: defensive uncertainty, bad organisation, an apparent lack of a plan. Andrea Stramaccioni’s lack of attacking options has become almost comical. Antonio Cassano is injured, joining Rodrigo Palacio and Diego Milito on the sidelines. With Ezequiel Schelotto suspended, this means that the coach will be entirely dependent on Ricky Alvarez and Tommaso Rocchi. One hugely inconsistent, the other ageing.
Cagliari have been playing well under Ivo Pulga, and their strikeforce of the revelation Marco Sau and the rejuventaed Mauricio Pinilla look to have a good understanding. I can’t understand why Cagliari are as big as 2.94 for the win here, and couldn’t make Inter favourites as they currently are on Betfair; Cagliari 3.0 for the win, Inter 2.6. Cagliari may be in the bottom half of the table, but they have won their last three home games against Torino, Sampdoria and Fiorentina, and this Inter team, with injury problems to the fore, is no better than any of those sides. Cagliari are an outstanding bet.
Recommended Bet
Back Cagliari to beat Inter @ 2.94
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Real Zaragoza v Barcelona
Sunday 18:00 (Live on Sky Sports 2)
Zaragoza 7.6 Barcelona 1.51 draw 4.8
Zaragoza are winless in 2013. The streak is 13 in total.
Finally a stroke of luck: Lionel Messi is likely to sit out the game in preparation for the stiffer challenge of Bayern Munich.
Barcelona’s Liga results have not suffered in the aftermath of Champions League games: they’re W8-D1-L0 immediately following European assignments this season, and the draw was at home to Real Madrid.
But their away form has dipped recently (W1-D2-L2), Messi’s absence is a concern and the most consistent trend is for both teams to score: that’s what’s happened in 13/15 of Barca’s road games so far this term.
Recommended Bet
Back Both Teams to Score @ 1.75
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Athletic Bilbao v Real Madrid
Sunday 20:00 (Live on Sky Sports 2)
Athletic 7.4 Real 1.53 draw 4.5
Real Madrid’s results have not obviously suffered for their ongoing Champions League campaign: Los Blancos have won 7/9 after playing midweek in Europe.
Anytime, anywhere, they’ve won 7/8 in La Liga, but their away form is not quite so conclusive. Mourinho’s men have won by two or more only twice in 11 since a Clasico in October. We’d be against them, if only Athletic weren’t so eminently capable of imploding – and if only they weren’t so short on eligible players.
Marcelo Bielsa has four players out suspended and perhaps another five absent injured. He’s been tinkering with defensive systems recently and, so long as Xabi Alonso and Ronaldo start, we’ll take the away win.
Both teams to score also makes some appeal – it’s paid out in each of Real’s last six Liga games – but looks sharply priced at 1.65.
Recommended Bet
Back Real Madrid @ 1.53
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Real Mallorca v Celta Vigo
Monday 20:00 (Live on Sky Sports 3)
Mallorca 2.14 Celta 4.0 draw 3.6
Bottom entertains second-bottom on Monday night. Together they should entertain even the casual viewer.
Eight of Mallorca’s ten games under Gregorio Manzano, including each of the last six, have gone Over 2.5 Goals and so have five of Celta Vigo’s six games since Abel Resino took over.
Iago Aspas is still suspended for the visitors, but an odds-against price means we’re ready to punt.
Recommended Bet
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.06
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Lay AC Milan to beat Napoli @ 2.18
Due to a succession of frustrating draws throughout February, second-placed Napoli let leaders Juventus prise open an ominous nine-point gap at the Serie A summit. With the title seemingly out of their grasp, Napoli’s main goal is surely to stop the advancing Milan beyond them and claiming that all-important second automatic Champions League spot. Three wins on the spin have certainly aided that cause greatly, ensuring that the visitors to the San Siro will start this game four points clear of their third-placed hosts. The sides have drawn their last two top-flight meetings but, with the attacking trio of Goran Pandev, Blerim Dzemaili and Edinson Cavani in such top goalscoring form and Mario Balotelli suspended for the hosts, Napoli can go one better.
Lay Heracles to beat Groningen @ 2.06
These Dutch Eredivisie sides last met in December and on that occasion Groningen, currently one place above their hosts in the table, ran out comfortable 2-0 winners. That made it two successive wins for Groningen in this fixture and represented their third win over Heracles in the last four encounters. Furthermore, the form table shows Heracles suffered defeat in four of their last six games and the last two of those in succession. In contrast, Groningen are on an upward curve having strung together two straight victories, while only tasting defeat once in their last four matches.
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Milesey
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ATP BETTING
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The competition is set to heat up in Monte Carlo, with eight out of the top 10 players in the world taking to the clay. Amongst the favourites are Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray, but with Rafael Nadal returning to the fold on his favourite surface, it promises to be an exceptional week of tennis action.
Thomas Berdych, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Richard Gasquet and Janko Tipsarevic are all involved, and will be eagerly awaiting the outcome of the opening games to discover who their second-round opponents will be.
The quality of the draw is also reflected in the fact that Gael Monfils and Juan Martin Del Potro are both wildcard entrants, and they will be part of a group bidding to prevent Nadal making it a staggering ninth straight Monte-Carlo Masters title, with an incredible 44-1 event record.
The biggest names of men’s tennis will be absent from the first round, but that doesn’t prevent it from being a very open and exciting field. Doubts remain over Djokovic after he picked up an ankle injury while on Davis Cup duty, but should he be deemed fit enough he will likely face a tricky second-round tie with either Mikhail Youzhny or Daniel Gimeno-Traver.
John Isner is another high profile wildcard entrant, and he faces a difficult first round clash with Ernests Gulbis. The Latvian is currently ranked 56th in the world but has been in good form this year with an 11-3 record, and will provide a tough test for the American. However, Isner will be buoyed by his run in Houston this past week.
One man who may find life a little easier in the opening round is ninth seed Marin Cilic. He takes on Horacio Zeballos, and will be confident of progressing in a quarter of the draw which will see him avoid the top three seeded players until the latter stages should he avoid an early exit.
Cilic will face the winner of what should be an entertaining all-Italian battle between Fabio Fognini and Andreas Seppi. Seppi has the edge over his countryman, but Fognini snatched a win in three-sets in their last meeting on the clay in Bucharest last year.
On the other side of the draw, there is likely to be a real battle when Stanislas Wawrinka takes on Denis Istomin. The pair have met on two previous occasions, with both matches going the distance, and despite sharing a victory each, the Swiss world number 17 should prevail.
Second seed Murray is likely to face Dutchman Robin Haase in his first outing in Monte Carlo, while Nadal will take on the winner of Marinko Matosevic and Fernando Verdasco.
Should things stay true to form, the quarter-final line-up could be incredibly close to call. Djokovic would be paired with Del Potro, Berdych with Gasquet, Tipsarevic with Nadal and Tsonga against Murray. It is difficult to look past the ‘King of Clay’, with the Spaniard’s propensity to deliver on this surface, and a fourth title of the year could well be on the way.
Recommended Bets
Back Rafael Nadal to win the Monte Carlo Masters @1.7
Back Marin Cilic to beat Horacio Zeballos @ 1.25
Back John Isner to beat Ernests Gulbis @ 1.4
Back Fabio Fognini to beat Andrea Seppi @ 1.6
Milesey
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SUNDAY FOOTBALL TIPS
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Stoke v Manchester United
Sunday April 14, 14.05 GMT
Live on Sky Sports One
Stoke City are in the midst of a dire run of results and possibly for the first as manager, Tony Pulis is starting to come under real pressure from his own fans. Since beating Liverpool on Boxing Day, The Potters have picked up just six points from a possible 39 and they haven’t won since a 2-1 victory over Reading back at the start of February.
Away from the Britannia Stadium their form is at an all-time low – six defeats on the bounce – but it’s their performances in front of their own supporters that have perhaps been the most concerning. Stoke have built their success in the Premier League on not only being incredibly hard to beat at the Britannia, but also winning their fair share of games there. That has all changed in 2013 as they have won just one of seven and lost three – including defeat to the relegation threatened Aston Villa last time out.
Peter Crouch has generally been the talisman for the club but he’s only scored five goals this term and he hasn’t netted since January. Charlie Adam’s move from Liverpool hasn’t worked out as expected and the once fearsome defence have kept just one clean sheet in their last 10 on home soil.
Manchester United will be crowned the Premier League champions with games to spare but they did suffer a small setback on Monday night as they lost the Manchester derby at home by two goals to one. While City are still 12 points adrift, that result will have hurt Alex Ferguson and I expect his players to be sent out on to the pitch on Sunday with the so called ‘flea in their ear’.
That defeat to their noisy neighbours was their first in the league since November, however they were knocked out of the FA Cup by Chelsea the week before, although Ferguson surprisingly put out a weakened side at Stamford Bridge.
With just league games left to play and an easier fixture coming up on Wednesday, it is likely that Ferguson will play a near full strength team for this match. That makes the 1.63 about them to win a must back price given Stoke’s current woes. I just can’t see anything other than a United victory and Stoke will have to continue to look over their shoulder at the relegation zone.
Given Stoke’s troubles in front of goal and the fact that The Red Devils have kept three clean sheets in a row away from home in the league, I think backing United to keep a clean sheet is fantastic value at odds-against. It’s currently trading at around the 2.2 mark and with Nemanja Vidic back in the frame after injury, it’s a stand out price.
Robin Van Persie is going through his biggest goal drought in recent memory as he’s now failed to score in any of his last 10 for United. They say class is permanent and form is temporary though and he did score three times for his country during the recent international break. He can be backed at 5.3 to break the deadlock on Sunday and with penalty duties in his locker, it has to be worth an investment.
Recommended Bets
Back Man United @ 1.63
Back a Man United clean sheet @ 2.2
Back Robin Van Persie to score first @ 5.3
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Chelsea v Manchester City, Sunday 4:00, ITV1.
Match odds: Chelsea 3.4, Manchester City 2.36, The Draw 3.5
This is unquestionably he more promising of the two FA Cup semi-finals, but if previous clashes between Rafael Benitez and Roberto Mancini are anything to go by, this won’t be a thriller.
The first two meetings between the two managers – one while Benitez was still in charge of Liverpool – ended in extraordinarily boring goalless draws. The league meeting at Stamford Bridge was one of the dullest matches of the Premier League campaign, although it was Benitez’s first match in charge of Chelsea, when he was encouraging caution and structure.
The recent contest at the City of Manchester Stadium once again saw Benitez select a cautious line-up. Rather than using his three creative talents – Oscar, Juan Mata and Eden Hazard – together, he pushed Ramires into the attacking trio. The Brazilian was used to offer a more mobile, combative option and signalled Chelsea wanted to play on the counter-attack – but Ramires had a disappointing game, with Hazard on the opposite threat a much bigger threat on the break.
That is Benitez’s crucial decision today – whether Ramires should be used as a holding midfielder, or wide on the right. Frank Lampard (the alternative in the deeper role) and Oscar are most at risk of missing out. Ordinarily, you’d expect Benitez to choose the more cautious route, but after Lampard played 90 minutes on a difficult plastic pitch at Rubin Kazan on Thursday, Oscar might be a better bet. Cesar Azpilicueta, rather than the more defensive-minded Branislav Ivanovic, should start at right-back.
Mancini has a similar dilemma – does he field Yaya Toure alongside Gareth Barry, or push Toure forward into a more advanced position, and introduce Javi Garcia as an extra holding midfielder? It’s always difficult to predict Mancini’s selections, and the fitness of David Silva will be key to his decision. The Spanish playmaker limped off towards the end of the 2-1 victory over Manchester United on Monday night, having starred in a central role. He should continue if 100% fit, but if not, Mancini may decide to move Toure forward – the extra protection afforded by Garcia will be helpful against Chelsea’s creators.
Elsewhere, expect James Milner to start on the right – and whereas he usually plays against Chelsea to track Ashley Cole up and down the line, at Wembley he might have a better attacking impact against back-up left-back Ryan Bertrand, so Milner is a decent shout for first goalscorer at 24.0. Samir Nasri did reasonably well against Manchester United, and while Sergio Aguero hit the headlines with his sensational late winner at Old Trafford, Carlos Tevez’s link-up play was excellent, and he deserves another start in what should be a tight, defensive-minded scrap.
My worry here is the lack of an intelligent deep-lying playmaker on either side. Lampard’s ball over the top of the Rubin Kazan defence for Fernando Torres on Thursday was sensational, but if both sides defend deep in two banks of four, I’m not sure these’s enough guile and ambition on the ball from the holding midfielders to work the ball into the final third.
Considering the previous contests between these two coaches – and with the game being played at a neutral venue, where both sides might be reluctant to take command of the game, it’s amazing to see Under 2.5 Goals available at around 2.0. Yes, there are a considerable number of attacking talents on show – but they’ll surely be asked to play cautious roles from the outsets, with the coaches leaving themselves attacking options on the bench as an option to change the game.
Of course, selection plays a big part. If Oscar is picked rather than Lampard (with Ramires’ position changing) or Mancini goes for four attackers and Toure in a deeper role, things might get exciting. The teamsheets will say much about both managers’ intentions – but unless there are any major surprises, backing Under 2.5 goals at 2.0 looks a fine bet.
Recommended bets:
Back James Milner to score first at 24.0
Back Under 2.5 goals at 2.0
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Central Coast Mariners vs Melbourne Victory
Sunday 08:00
It’s the second of the semi-finals in Australia and it couldn’t be simpler. The winner books themselves a place in next weekend’s Grand Final against the Wanderers, with the losers having to deal with falling at the final hurdle.
High pressure and high drama is assured as the Victory travel to the Bluetounge Stadium on Sunday morning with it all to play for…
The Mariners have had to use their squad to its fullest in recent weeks. Playing four games in sixteen days hasn’t come at the best of times in terms of preparation for this semi-final. With Graham Arnold shuffling the pack intelligently in their midweek AFC Champions League fixture, he has a strong and fresh selection of first team regulars chomping at the bit to secure a Grand Finals spot next Sunday.
The most notable absentee from Tuesday’s loss to Guizhou Renhe was golden boot winner and prolific striker Daniel McBreen. With a week’s rest under his belt as well as two goals in his last two outings, he is sure to be prominent in the waves of Mariners pressure that is expected in Gosport.
Another man missing the trip to China was midfielder Michael McGlinchey, who has arguably been the A-League stand-out player this season. Chipping in with six goals, three assists and being an ever present in the starting eleven, the Kiwi has had his best season to date with the Mariners.
With the record of playing the most finals series matches out of any team in history (sixteen) means the experience of the hosts will be invaluable, but the fact that only four of these have ended in victory will no doubt be present in their sub-conscious – something Arnold will no doubt try and use as an extra incentive for his side.
After an extra time victory over Perth in their elimination final, Melbourne Victory will no doubt feel relieved to be a part of semi-final weekend. After trailing at home for 90 minutes, an added time penalty converted by Mark Milligan was enough to force extra time, where a 94th minute winner scored by Archie Thompson sealed the 2-1 Victory at the AAMI Park. A more convincing performance will be needed to over-turn a confident Mariners outfit, and coach Postecoglou knows his defence are a constant concern.
Leaking 45 goals in the regular season and still finishing in third place was quite the achievement for the Victory. With personnel changes in the back four on a weekly basis it has proven hard for Postecoglou to know what his best formation is. After losing this fixture 6-2 earlier on in the season, it would be naive of the Victory boss to hope to outscore the hosts, but with youngster Marco Rojas having a dream season in front of goal, he might well be relied upon heavily come Sunday morning.
The history books have these two sides down as inseparable. With nine Victory wins, eight Mariners wins and seven draws you would be forgiven for thinking this one could go to penalties. However with the form Mariners are in as well as the hold they have had over their visitors in this season’s clashes, I can see Mariners nicking this one and sealing their place in next Sunday’s Grand Final.
Recommended Bet
Back the Mariners win @ 1.74
Back 3-1 @ 14.5
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PSV vs Ajax
Sunday 15:30
It’s squeaky bum time in the Netherlands. With four points separating the top four teams in the Eredivisie, points mean prizes in the last five games of the season and its Ajax’s to throw away. With a three point lead over their hosts PSV going into this fixture, reigning champions Ajax will know that avoiding defeat could go a long way to securing their 32nd Dutch title.
PSV have spent a majority of this season in top spot. With a relentless strike force scoring 88 goals paired with a competent defence, it looked like Dick Advocaat had the formulae spot on to stroll to their first title since 2008. Recent losses at the hands of teams like Zwolle and Heerenveen however have raised many eyebrows at the title credentials of Eindhoven, with many suggesting they have bottled their major chance.
With a plethora of striking options, Advocaat has had to rotate upfront all season. With eight forwards finding the net this season, it’s a headache that has been welcomed in Eindhoven especially seeing the results it has had on the pitch. Lens, Matavz and Wijnaldum all started last weekend away to Williem II with a 3-1 victory and will hope to keep their place in Sunday’s starting line up.
Without back to back victories in nine games, PSV have allowed Ajax to cruise to top spot after five wins on the spin, and with the season coming to an exciting climax it couldn’t have come at a better time. Hitting top spot for the first time four weeks ago, Frank de Boer’s men look to be peaking at the perfect time and with a favourable run in they look in a strong position to defend their Dutch crown.
With a midfield consisting of Siem de Jong and Christian Eriksen in top form, this partnership has become the envy of the rest of the league, if not Europe. With nineteen goals between them along with eighteen assists, they have been instrumental in Ajax’s successes so far this season.
With the league’s best strike force coming up against the best midfield, expect this to be a high tempo frantic affair. A home win would see PSV edge above their visitors on goal difference, where as an away win would see Ajax go six clear of PSV with four to play. With Vitesse and Feyenoord both facing tricky away ties, Ajax could well have one hand back on their Eredivisie title come Sunday evening.
Recommended Bet:
Back Ajax to win @ 3.2
Back over 3.5 goals @ 2.5
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Cagliari v Inter
The Italian newspapers this week have been full of the Inter President Massimo Moratti and his conspiracy theories regarding the make up of the top four. Moratti’s argument is that Milan have more money than Inter, and therefore that they were always destined to finish in a Champions League place. These passionate and pretty misguided comments followed Inter’s capitulation against Atalanta last week, a match in which we saw all of Inter’s recent failings: defensive uncertainty, bad organisation, an apparent lack of a plan. Andrea Stramaccioni’s lack of attacking options has become almost comical. Antonio Cassano is injured, joining Rodrigo Palacio and Diego Milito on the sidelines. With Ezequiel Schelotto suspended, this means that the coach will be entirely dependent on Ricky Alvarez and Tommaso Rocchi. One hugely inconsistent, the other ageing.
Cagliari have been playing well under Ivo Pulga, and their strikeforce of the revelation Marco Sau and the rejuventaed Mauricio Pinilla look to have a good understanding. I can’t understand why Cagliari are as big as 2.94 for the win here, and couldn’t make Inter favourites as they currently are on Betfair; Cagliari 3.0 for the win, Inter 2.6. Cagliari may be in the bottom half of the table, but they have won their last three home games against Torino, Sampdoria and Fiorentina, and this Inter team, with injury problems to the fore, is no better than any of those sides. Cagliari are an outstanding bet.
Recommended Bet
Back Cagliari to beat Inter @ 2.94
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Real Zaragoza v Barcelona
Sunday 18:00 (Live on Sky Sports 2)
Zaragoza 7.6 Barcelona 1.51 draw 4.8
Zaragoza are winless in 2013. The streak is 13 in total.
Finally a stroke of luck: Lionel Messi is likely to sit out the game in preparation for the stiffer challenge of Bayern Munich.
Barcelona’s Liga results have not suffered in the aftermath of Champions League games: they’re W8-D1-L0 immediately following European assignments this season, and the draw was at home to Real Madrid.
But their away form has dipped recently (W1-D2-L2), Messi’s absence is a concern and the most consistent trend is for both teams to score: that’s what’s happened in 13/15 of Barca’s road games so far this term.
Recommended Bet
Back Both Teams to Score @ 1.75
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Athletic Bilbao v Real Madrid
Sunday 20:00 (Live on Sky Sports 2)
Athletic 7.4 Real 1.53 draw 4.5
Real Madrid’s results have not obviously suffered for their ongoing Champions League campaign: Los Blancos have won 7/9 after playing midweek in Europe.
Anytime, anywhere, they’ve won 7/8 in La Liga, but their away form is not quite so conclusive. Mourinho’s men have won by two or more only twice in 11 since a Clasico in October. We’d be against them, if only Athletic weren’t so eminently capable of imploding – and if only they weren’t so short on eligible players.
Marcelo Bielsa has four players out suspended and perhaps another five absent injured. He’s been tinkering with defensive systems recently and, so long as Xabi Alonso and Ronaldo start, we’ll take the away win.
Both teams to score also makes some appeal – it’s paid out in each of Real’s last six Liga games – but looks sharply priced at 1.65.
Recommended Bet
Back Real Madrid @ 1.53
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Real Mallorca v Celta Vigo
Monday 20:00 (Live on Sky Sports 3)
Mallorca 2.14 Celta 4.0 draw 3.6
Bottom entertains second-bottom on Monday night. Together they should entertain even the casual viewer.
Eight of Mallorca’s ten games under Gregorio Manzano, including each of the last six, have gone Over 2.5 Goals and so have five of Celta Vigo’s six games since Abel Resino took over.
Iago Aspas is still suspended for the visitors, but an odds-against price means we’re ready to punt.
Recommended Bet
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.06
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Lay AC Milan to beat Napoli @ 2.18
Due to a succession of frustrating draws throughout February, second-placed Napoli let leaders Juventus prise open an ominous nine-point gap at the Serie A summit. With the title seemingly out of their grasp, Napoli’s main goal is surely to stop the advancing Milan beyond them and claiming that all-important second automatic Champions League spot. Three wins on the spin have certainly aided that cause greatly, ensuring that the visitors to the San Siro will start this game four points clear of their third-placed hosts. The sides have drawn their last two top-flight meetings but, with the attacking trio of Goran Pandev, Blerim Dzemaili and Edinson Cavani in such top goalscoring form and Mario Balotelli suspended for the hosts, Napoli can go one better.
Lay Heracles to beat Groningen @ 2.06
These Dutch Eredivisie sides last met in December and on that occasion Groningen, currently one place above their hosts in the table, ran out comfortable 2-0 winners. That made it two successive wins for Groningen in this fixture and represented their third win over Heracles in the last four encounters. Furthermore, the form table shows Heracles suffered defeat in four of their last six games and the last two of those in succession. In contrast, Groningen are on an upward curve having strung together two straight victories, while only tasting defeat once in their last four matches.
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Milesey