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ENGLISH KING (4.55) can conquer a formidable Aidan O’Brien raiding party to keep the Investec Derby on home soil at Epsom.
Victory over the big battalions would be a tremendous feather in the cap of Lambourn trainer Ed Walker and English King seems best served by the anticipated fast ground. He fairly glided his way through the Lingfield Derby Trial, being held up early by Tom Marquand before edging out to make his challenge and immediately quickening past Berkshire Roco.
Frankie Dettori takes over the reins today and that is a significant plus factor as English King must overcome the ‘coffin box’ in stall one. Henry Cecil’s Oath under Kieren Fallon in 1999 was the last winner to emerge from the inside berth but Dettori will be alive to the danger of getting trapped on the rail behind weakening rivals and being shuffled back on the run down to Tattenham Corner.
English King’s high cruising speed should enable him to escape from a pocket, although the Derby is often a rough race. English King is a son of the O’Brien-trained Camelot, the last horse to complete the Guineas-Derby double in 2012, and looks a worthy favourite.
Kameko, the mount of champion jockey Oisin Murphy, is trying to emulate that Classic feat on the back of his stirring Qipco 2000 Guineas success over Wichita and Pinatubo. Whether Andrew Balding’s colt possesses the necessary stamina to see out this demanding examination over an extra four furlongs is the puzzle confronting punters. Balding trains from the Kingsclere yard made famous by the majestic Mill Reef, trained by his father Ian, so Kameko would be making his own slice of history.
O’Brien, seeking a record eighth victory in the premier Classic, sends six challengers across the water but is missing probably his best three-year-old, Santiago, winner of last weekend’s Irish Derby after romping home at Royal Ascot.
The fact he is so heavily represented suggests there is not a ‘superstar’ in his team. Indeed, when he saddled six in 2017 it was his 40-1 outsider Wings Of Eagles which caused something of a sensation.
Ryan Moore had the pick of the O’Brien sextet and has plumped for Mogul, always the apple of O’Brien’s eye, but the colt is on a recovery mission after a tame effort at Royal Ascot. O’Brien insists Mogul was in dire need of that run and will strip much fitter this afternoon.
Ballydoyle’s best chance may rest with Royal Ascot winner Russian Emperor, the mount of Seamie Heffernan, successful last year on O’Brien’s Anthony Van Dyck. Russian Emperor seems sure to appreciate this extra stamina test, having landed the Hampton Court Stakes over two furlongs shorter, beating First Receiver and Berlin Tango. He is on the upgrade.
Padraig Beggy bids to emulate his Wings Of Eagles shock by riding Vatican City to victory. Vatican City remains relatively unexposed having picked off a Dundalk maiden last season before acquitting himself well in a bruising Irish 2000 Guineas, chasing home talented Shiskin. Stamina may be an issue.
Best of the O’Brien-trained outsiders could be Amhran Na Bhfiann, with William Buick a notable booking, while Pyledriver, a surprise winner of the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot, would be a fairytale success for trainer William Muir. Third-placed Mohican Heights takes his chance for David Simcock.
The Investec Oaks looks a match between FRANKLY DARLING (3.40) and Love. John Gosden’s daughter of Frankel was given a textbook ride from that man Dettori when scooping the Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot and wins the vote over O’Brien’s clear-cut 1000 Guineas heroine Love. The ground is probably livelier than ideal for Frankly Darling but she wouldn’t be risked if her connections considered the track posed any danger. The market could prove very informative if the Ballydoyle boys don their betting boots.
O’Brien’s ‘second-string’ Ennistymon is no slouch and was given a lot of ground to make up in the Ribblesdale before running on stoutly into second spot. If all eight runners go to post she is a rock-solid each-way alternative at around 13-2.
SAFE VOYAGE (2.25) would ideally prefer a soft surface but is the class act in the Investec Surrey Stakes. A real 7f specialist, Safe Voyage handled quick ground in a Group 2 at the Curragh last July when third to Romanised and is preferred to Shine So Bright, taken off his feet over six furlongs when last to finish at Royal Ascot. He is better than that effort.
Sixteen runners are declared for the 1m 2f handicap, with several firms offering five places each-way. DESERT ICON (3.00) is unlikely to be sent off an each-way price, however, following his demolition job at Newmarket six days ago, making all to score by more than eight lengths. Despite carrying a 6lb penalty, Desert Icon remains ahead of the assessor on that evidence.
Caradoc had You’re Fired back in fourth in the Dubai Duty Free Handicap at Newbury last September and they meet again on the same terms. Caradoc enjoys a slick surface and holds claims if fully wound up for his seasonal debut. The betting should offer a clue on that score.
FOORAAT (4.15) moves up in class in the Princess Elizabeth Stakes but is improving leaps and bounds. Roger Varian’s filly scored effortlessly at Chelmsford City and fast ground will make her hard to catch.
The form book points to 1000 Guineas runner-up Cloak Of Spirits, especially if her Newmarket conqueror Love runs a big race in the Oaks. On official figures she is rated 9lb superior to Fooraat and holds another of her rivals, Summer Romance, on Guineas form.
I couldn’t have the highly touted Frankly Darling, although it isn’t based on a great deal. I like listening to Paul Kealy and he’s all over it, but given the way O’Briens 2nd string came to her, and also, given how LOVE blitzed her race and looked MUCH stronger going through the line, in fact it looked like she jogged the entire mile. Luckily it’s such a top class race, it can be enjoyed without having to risk any reasonable money on such a tricky one to call but it’s LOVE for me that goes into the accas, out of the top two at least.
The first race is very hard to gauge given the horses are very lightly raced and anyone tipping will have a larger slice of guesswork than is typical. I have never seen Martin Harley race for Owen Burrows and that is MORE than enough grounds to discount him. MODERN NEWS 2/1 has the beating of Mutazawwed through a VERY THIN form line, back down over 6f, I like the look of this horse. The Johnston yard has beaten Inhaler with another horse so may know what’s required there.
Will stick with Alan in regards to SAFE VOYAGE, big fav, haven’t analysed rivals but would only be an acca booster at this price.
I am going to look at the two big field hcaps and post some selections here later, good luck boys.
listening more, apparently ENNISTYMON coming back at FRANKLY shouldnt be hyped too much, coming from off the pace on the round course at ascot is ”standard” whilst going on from the front as FD did should be marked up, just food for thought.
1500 Epsom – JOHNNY DRAMA 7/1 win, split stake to place, TOP 4 11/8 nap
shortlisted from the race: CERTAIN LAD 14/1 , DESERT ICON 3/1, CARADOC 13/2, LAAFY, DATA PROTECTION 16/1, MR SCARAMANGA 18/1
1735 Epsom Corazon Espinado 17/2 , Dirty Rascal 22/1, Magical Wish 14/1 all ew
Loosely narrowed it down to these three, Tom Ward has used Marquand all season, Murphy is on his other horse at a lot shorter price, the horse has won it’s last 2 and I reckon his run is over.
Magical Wish has useful 5lbs taken off, wins on the AW but was a good 2nd off higher at York although was over 6f. CORAZON likes it here beat current fav HATEYA very barrowly off 3lb lower, HATEYA couple lbs better off with trainers go to jockey.
think english king as got a bad draw from stall 1 hope it can win from that stall though
Frankly Darking raced twice since June 1st also, a negative according to Qatar Racing manager.
Derby
Vatican City
Serpentine ew
Oaks
Love
1.50 Mutazawwed 4/1
BOL
the universe has told me to back SERPENTINE, i looked into it, has 4 full siblings, none of them did well over 1m4f, all 1m2fs, has put me off, but clearly isn’t rock solid science.
There’s so much to take into account in this race. Yes breeding is a big one but I just was so impressed with its last run that at the odds looks value.
Will probably get caught by a stronger finisher put ill settle for 4th.
There’s lots of negatives about most of the field.
i will have a small nibble too, paper form and statistics often go out the window, McNamara was 2nd in the guineas too, here’s hoping mate.
Absolutely fantastic! Get in!
when the universe tells me a horse, it wins EVERYTIME, i honestly cannot believe it, the sick thing is i NEVER listen, absolute sickening, was on a little but you cannot make it up, 150 nando parado, and 5 double priced winners since, i am sick to my stomach.
nice one though :D
Even So 15/8 5.15 Naas NAP
Epsm 3.00 Johnny Drama 6/1
Epsm 4.55 Kameko 9/2
Epsm 4.55 Vatican City 10/1 each way
Hayd 2.05 Dana Forever 9/2
Hayd 2.40 Shelir 9/2
1200 MR TOP HAT 6/1 EW
May 2019, won over 1m2f on Soft in a C3 rated 86. Today he has same going, same distance in C5 and is rated… 68!!!
20 mins till race time, shortlisted are Delph Crescent, Iconic Code, Mac Ailey and
Deinonychus whilst Grand Inquisitor won over 1m4 on soft 1 year ago too rated 86, although was a class 6, now rated 67.
in my haste, iconic code boosted at 11/1 since has extra 7lbs taken off!
i’ll stop trying to dissect bargain basement races for the rest of the day, good luck lads, enjoy it.
nap/nb 3-00 epsom ironclad 7/2
bellewstown 6-05 memories remain 9/1 ew
Ahoy hoy!
Well done the winners yesterday I had a few only due to lads on here,Azz and AT ones I remember so thanks.
Small Yankee and singles for me but only as I’m hoping if a couple fail it’s cash back with Skybet promos.
Modern News…1.50 5/2
Safe Voyage…2.25. 11/10 (single with Skybet money back for 2nd)
First Kingdom…3.15. 13/8 **** (should be to good for the newcomers and 2nd fav goes up a few Lbs too,FK was impress lto.
Cloak of Spirits…4.15 ***. 10/3 (surely not reached its best yet after only 5 races and will forgive last run,2nd in Guineas is best form so something will need to heavily improve to win)
On English King at 4/1 for Derby(losing bet back as cash if it finishes 2nd/3rd/4th) *$10 max bet
Even So…5.15. 13/8 (Naas) looks the one to beat and DC has Napped it,also took it in a double with Belmont R3 favorite from my tracker which is now to short for a single at 4/7 from 4/5 but won by 7l lto and clear winner for me.
GL all it’s a great days watching ahead 🐎☘️
Few winners be gravy! 😉
Apologies that’s wrong I’ve took Frankly Darking not Modern News in 1.50 as to hard a race to figure but he’d be my pick.
Just as well I checked! Saying that Q MN to romp home. Lol
Gl
Afternoon all well done winners yesterday
Lady Monica 1.00h 16-1
Made for all 2.05h 12-1
Oasis prince 2.40h 11-1
Mr scaramanga 3.00e 16-1
Pyledriver 4.55e 16-1
Count Otto 5.35e 20-1
Ew singles & ew lucky63☘️Gl all
ironclad 3.00 darkest 3.35
2.05 haydock
Seas of Elzaam ew 🤞
Hello All !!
Its Derby time .
Win
R. 2 – Safe Voyage / Eps.
R. 9 – Arch Moon / Hayd
Each / Way
R. 6 – Kameko ( Derby )
R. 7 – Tintoretto / Eps.
R. 5 – Dana Forever / Hayd.
Notebook Horse
Ironclad / Win – Epsom
All a nice Derby day & BOL !!
You can pick holes in everything in the Derby so for what it’s worth I’m on Worthily 20/80 at 33/1 and 13/2 GL
Yeah hard race mate and i only went with a bet due to ‘Money back as cash’ offer wae Skybet as surely English King will place?
Gl
GL with your bet
gold wand 3?40
4.40 NAAS :- Lough Cutra 5/2 NAP
Less than a length behind Russian Emperor in soft/heavy going over a mile, faded into second over 1m 2f last time, back to a mile today., with soft/yielding ground.
worthily 4.55 ew
also serpentine 4.55 ew have to back a o brain outsider
Fantastic! Great work Azz thank you.
cheers chilleden
Serpentine romps home !!!!
Absolutely fantastic. That has made my weekend. 25-1!
👏👏👏
Azzthewigan & DC Fantastic tipping with 🏇Serpentine👍☘😎