HERE'S a Sunday lunchtime double from Denmark.
Fredericia v Lyngby (12.45pm)
This is a BTTS bet. When I’m looking at BTTS, I always think: in the last five or six games, do my home picks always score at home and do these away opponents always score away? If the answer’s yes, I struggle to look at anything else.
Of course, it’s not always that straightforward. Fredericia have played four at home so far this season, and they’ve scored in three of them. They’ve also conceded in all of those home games in which they’ve scored.
So, if it’s open, can we say they’ll score and concede more often than not? Probably. The one home game they didn’t score or concede in was against Hvidivore. That was a 0-0 classic of the sort we love when we’re looking at sides we want to back on Unders. Take that game out, at home, they’re P3 F5 A5.
Meanwhile, Lyngby have scored in three of their four aways. The only game they didn’t score in, they got thrashed 4-0 so they certainly know how to concede, as they conceded in all the rest as well. But in more open games, they know how to score as well, as, in their three other away games, they’re F7 A5.
Put two teams together who score and concede – and you don’t need Mary Berry to explain how that recipe works… Usually, no soggy bottom.
Both teams to score is 4-7, bet 365.
Koge v Helsingor (12.45pm)
Koge to win is what we’ll be going for. All five Koge home games have been wins this season, including against the third and fourth best away sides in this league.
Helsingor are the second-worst away side in this league, having played four away. They’ve drawn two and lost two, scoring one goal, and conceding five.
Their last away loss was at Silkeborg, whose home record without that game included would be: P4 W1 D1 L2 F5 A7. They beat Helsingor 3-0.
Koge home are P5 W5 D0 L0 F15 A5. Koge to win is 5/4, bet365.
- Fredericia v Lyngby – BTTS
- Koge v Helsingor – Koge Home Win
- (3-1, bet365)