TUESDAY'S play at La Caja Magica sees Andy Murray, Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer makes their debuts in this year's tournament and for Federer it's his first match of the season on the red dirt.
The Swiss enjoys the quicker, lower bouncing conditions at altitude here in Madrid though and shouldn't be posed too many problems by opponent Radek Stepanek.
Djokovic faces a tricky match first up against Grigor Dimitrov and a lay of the Serb 2-0 at 1.30 is certainly worthy of consideration if Dimitrov can repeat the form he showed against Rafa Nadal in Monte-Carlo.
Murray takes to the court at around 4pm UK time and faces the unpredictable talents of flaky German Florian Mayer who can be anything on any given day.
The Brit will be desperate to do well in Madrid this week after his humbling by Stan Wawrinka in Monte Carlo and today's match-up should suit him with Mayer relying largely on junk to win his matches.
When he's on form Mayer can pose problems for the best but he's so inconsistent he's very hard to predict accurately. He beat Rafa Nadal in the Shanghai Masters a couple of years ago and then lost 6-2 6-4 to Feliciano Lopez the next round which says it all about Mayer.
He's played Murray once in the past and that was on slow clay in Rome when Mayer won the opener 6-1 and then lost the next two by the same scoreline.
Murray didn't play on the infamous blue clay here in Madrid last year and he's never been past the last eight on clay at La Caja Magica. His last match here was a straight sets loss to Thomaz Bellucci in 2011.
He knows he needs to get a lot better on clay to even figure in the shake-up in these tournaments but today should be a good opportunity for him to erase the memory of Monte Carlo with a routine win.
The Scot should be able to win this one in spite of a 4.5 game handicap in the German's favour at around 1.58.
Recommended Bet
Back Murray -4.5 games to beat Mayer at 1.58
Milesey (Betfair)
Resident football tipster at Scotland's most read newspaper, the Daily Record, for over 20 years and proud host of one the best betting communities on the web with daily betting tips.
GOLF
*****
THE PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP, where the world’s best will be attempting to win the year’s ‘fifth major’…
Tournament History
Originally known as the Tournament Players Championship, the event used to be staged in March but was moved to May in 2007. Universally known as the games ‘fifth major’, a top-class field always assembles at TPC Sawgrass and this year is no exception. The PGA Tour website describes this week’s line-up as the deepest, strongest field in golf and it’s impossible to argue against them. This will be the 40th staging of The Players Championship.
Venue
TPC Sawgrass, Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida
Course Details
Par 72 -7,215 yards
Stroke Index in 2012 – 72.47
Constructed in 1980, specifically for the purpose of hosting this event, the Stadium Course at Sawgrass has been the tournament’s venue since 1982. It’s yet another Bermuda-grass Pete Dye design and it’s one of the most renowned courses in the world. The par 3 17th, with its dramatic island green, is one of the most recognised holes in golf.
Described as a balanced course, with doglegged holes going both ways and holes routed so that no two consecutive ever play in the same direction, it’s a true test that doesn’t tend to favour any one type of player, though accurate iron-play and tip-top scrambling is usually the key to success.
In 2006, just before the event moved to it’s now regular May date, all the tees, fairways and greens were stripped and new drainage, irrigation, and sub-air systems were installed. The result being that the firmness of the, smaller than average sized, greens can be controlled in any weather conditions.
TV Coverage
Live on Sky all four days, starting at 6.00pm on Thursday
Last Five Winners
2012 – Matt Kuchar -13
2011 – K.J Choi -13 (playoff)
2010 – Tim Clark -16
2009 – Henrik Stenson -12
2008 -Sergio Garcia -5 (playoff)
What will it take to win The Players Championship?
The odd big-hitter has obliged but driving distance is pretty much unimportant. Nine of the last 13 winners ranked in the top ten for Greens In Regulation and Sergio Garcia and last year’s victor, Matt Kuchar, are the only winners in the last eight years to rank outside the top-ten for Scrambling.
Is there an angle in?
Plenty of course experience certainly helps and getting to know the gaff looks key. When Henrik Stenson took the title in 2009, he was playing in the event for just the fourth time but he’s the only Players champ in the last seven years to have previously played Sawgrass less than seven times prior to winning.
The chances are we’ll see another new winner of the event – in the last 20 years there have been 20 different winners. Jack Nicklaus is the only man to win The Players three times and Fred Couples, Steve Elkington, Davis Love III and Hall Sutton are the only men to win it twice. And don’t back Matt Kuchar – nobody has ever defended.
Don’t be afraid to back an outsider – the list of past champions contains plenty of shock winners. I can’t imagine too many picked out the likes of Craig Perks or Fred Funk and although I have fond memories of backing Stephen Ames in 2006, he went off at 170.0.
Is there an identikit winner?
I would certainly favour the older, experienced players with an accurate approach game over the younger aggressive types. The wily old vet that knows how to plot his way around is just as likely to contend as any of the young guns. Fred Funk won here in 2005 and the likes of Paul Goydos, Kenny Perry and David Toms have all come close to winning recently. But in truth, all sorts of players have won here and finding a single type of player to prosper is hard.
In-Play Tactics
Being up on the pace from early on is certainly preferable. In the last ten years, only Stephen Ames and K.J Choi have won from outside the top-20 after day one. Between 2004 and 2008, that necessity for a fast start was advertised most strongly, with Adam Scot, Phil Mickelson and Sergio Garcia all going on to win having led the field after round one. And Fred Funk, the 2005 champ, had been second after the first day.
Third round leaders are worth opposing though – the last six have all failed to convert.
Romilly Evans highlights here how starting out on the 10th hole could prove advantageous and he also describes the pivotal finishing holes superbly too.
Market Leaders
Tiger Woods reserves all his best golf for the same venues nowadays but unfortunately for favourite backers, Sawgrass isn’t one of them.
In 14 starts, he’s won just once and he has an average finishing position of 25th. That’s perfectly respectable form of course but when you consider he’s been the best player on the planet, and by some margin, over much of the last 15 years and that it’s safe to assume he’s pitched up here on numerous occasions in his absolute pomp, then taking a single-figure price about him this week holds no appeal.
Adam Scot and Rory McIlroy are vying for second favouritism and if I had to pick one it would be the latter. Scott, winner here in 2004, is making his first appearance since his dramatic US Masters playoff triumph and winning back-to-back is always tough, especially when you’re attempting to back-up a major! The media will no doubt be all over him this week and although I expect a big upturn in the Aussie’s fortunes now that he’s won a major, I don’t expect it to be immediate.
McIlroy’s record here is poor to say the least. Causing much ado, he swerved the event in 2011 and he’s only played here three times. He’s never made the cut, he’s never broken par and he claims not to have gotten to grips with the place yet but I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see that change this week. Rickie Fowler finished runner-up last year after a couple of missed cuts, so it can be done if you’re classy enough and Rory’s game was in tip-top order at Quail Hollow last week.
Selections
Luke Donald isn’t a terrific price this week but he ticks all the right boxes so boldly that I felt he had to be backed and I’ll be quite disappointed if he doesn’t contend.
With ten Sawgrass starts already in the bag, he has plenty of vital course experience and his course form’s not bad either. Runner-up behind Funk in 2005, Luke also finished 4th in 2011 and 6th last year. He has an impressive record in Florida, where he’s won twice recently and where he’s finished inside the top-six in eight of his last 11 starts and he was third last time out, in the RBC Heritage at Hilton Head – another Pete Dye design.
I was more than happy to take 30.0 about 2007 champ, Phil Mickelson, whose putting at last week’s Wells Fargo Championship, on greens most were struggling with, was quite simply sensational. He made 39 consecutive putts inside ten feet at one stage and unsurprisingly topped the Putting Average stats for the week.
He snatched defeat from the jaws of victory with bogeys on two of the last three holes on Sunday but he’s just the sort of character to put that behind him immediately and bounce right back the following week. He comes here in fine form, has plenty of Sawgrass experience and at odds of 30.0, I fancy he’s slightly overlooked.
My third and final selection is Ben Crane, who also has bags of Sawgrass form to call on. After running up a sequence of finishes here reading 6-5-4, he’s been a bit disappointing in the each of the last two renewals (tied 45th in 2011 and a missed cut in 2012) but he could very easily find his Sawgrass swing again this time around and I thought he was well worth backing at 140.0.
Pre-Event Selections:
Luke Donald @ 24.0
Phil Mickelson @ 30.0
Ben Crane @ 140.0
Back to LAY SHOTS
******************
You won’t get many better opportunities on the golfing calendar to make money trading outsiders than the Players Championship. It isn’t so much that it regularly produces freak winners, though we’ve had three in triple-figures this century. Rather, the great thing about Sawgrass is that leaderboards change fast, often meaning many more players than usual get into contention and shorten markedly in the betting. It is not unheard of for a dozen different players to hold weekend favouritism at some stage.
It also helps that an elite field at the ‘Fifth Major’ means no shortage of quality available within our price range. My plan, therefore, is to back a trio of players all at well above 200.0, with a view to laying back for a sizeable profit should any of them hit the relatively unambitious target of 20.0.
First up a man who traded well below that mark in no lesser contest than the Masters on his penultimate start. Marc Leishman was mightily impressive at Augusta, standing his ground in contention for all four days, and maintained his good form with a top-ten the following week at Harbour Town. That marked improvement makes it easy to ignore three previous failures at Sawgrass, a course that takes plenty of learning.
Accurate driving is a pre-requisite for success around hazard-strewn Sawgrass, which leads me towards 280.0 chance John Huh, who has been hitting a high percentage of fairways lately. 11th on his penultimate start at the Masters was outstanding and last year’s Sawgrass debut was promising, fighting back from an opening 75 to make the top-25.
Finally, despite lacking any course form to recommend, Mark Wilson is simply too big to ignore at 400.0 after finishing third and ninth on his last two starts. Four PGA Tour victories is an outstanding for a player of Wilson’s calibre. All came at huge odds and there were no obvious course form clues available beforehand. In short, he’s precisely the type of rank outsider worth throwing a few pennies at, because he knows how to win.
Recommended bets
Back Marc Leishman 2u @ 220.0
Back John Huh 1.5u @ 280.0
Back Mark Wilson 1u @ 400.0
Milesey
CRICKET
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New Zealand have arrived in England ahead of the two-match series later this month, and won their first tour match against Derbyshire over the weekend. look ahead to the First Test at Lords and England notching a win as part of a series whitewash…
For most cricket fans, the summer of 2013 means only one thing: The Ashes. But before England look too far ahead to the prospect of retaining the urn for the third series in a row, a two-match series against New Zealand beckons for Alistair Cook’s side with a lot to prove.
New Zealand travel to England just over one month after England managed to miraculously rescue a draw from the jaws of defeat in Auckland. Matt Prior’s last day heroics on the final day of the test salvaged a draw for England denying New Zealand a series win which was thought of as high unlikely prior to the series.
England’s lethargic display throughout their three match series with the Black Caps saw Alistair Cook fending off criticism from many quarters of the media that England had taken a series victory in New Zealand for granted. This return fixture will be targeted by the England skipper as an ideal opportunity to prove his capabilities as an England captain. Cook has recently admitted that he could of led his side better in the New Zealand series, and the Essex man will be determined to orchestrate a more emphatic performance to lay down a marker for the main event of the summer, The Ashes.
England’s current price of 1.38 to win the series is particularly short but unsurprising.
The return of Graeme Swann from a long term elbow injury will bolster an English bowling attack which underperformed in New Zealand. Two of New Zealand’s key performers, Ross Taylor and Brendan McCullum, will join the touring party late from their participation in the IPL, and the disruption to preparation will not improve New Zealand’s chances before the First Test.
Kevin Pietersen will miss the series as he hopes to rest a persistent knee injury which many fear will keep him from taking to the field for his fifth Ashes series since his blistering debut in 2005. However, the impressive emergence of Joe Root into the England batting line up will ease concerns over the void left by Pietersen’s absence. Root was one of the few shining lights from an otherwise dismal showing from England.
On the pitches of Lords and Headingly, I’d expect England’s performance with bat and ball to improve markedly on their display in New Zealand. The tracks in New Zealand seemed to be purposefully designed to nullify England’s pace attack, but James Anderson et al will be confident of making more of an impact this time around. England are priced at 1.6 to earn victory in the First Test at Lords, and although this comes across as quite short given the 0-0 series result a couple of months earlier, I still believe it is the best bet if the spring sunshine continues to bless London.
A 2-0 series win for England is currently priced at 2.24, and I am fully expecting an England whitewash given the fact that New Zealand have not registered a test victory against England in their two previous tours of the country. New Zealand will be desperate to silence talk of them being the warm up to the main event of the Ashes, and while England will now know not to take the Black Caps lightly, it’s difficult to envisage New Zealand administering any damage on behalf of their neighbours across the Tasman Sea.
Recommended Bets
Back England to win the series 2-0 at 2.24
Back England to win the First Test at 1.6
Milesey
( betfair )
IPL CRICKET
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Sunrisers Hyderabad v Chennai Super Kings
Wednesday 8th May, 15:30 BST
Live on ITV4 and itv.com
Sunrisers Hyderabad
Hyderabad continue to surprise. The fade that many expected them to suffer in the second half of the IPL group stage just hasn’t happened and with seven wins from 11 games only an inferior net run rate keeps them outside the play-off places. Kumar Sangakkara may be struggling with his own form – he’s dropped then reinstated himself, moved up and down the order and now handed over the wicketkeeping gloves in a fruitless search for runs – but there is no denying that he has built up a real team ethos which has kept the Sunrisers punching far above their weight. With the ball, Dale Steyn continues to be miserly and has the best economy rate of any bowler in this IPL who has taken more than 10 wickets, whilst Amit Mishra remains third in the overall wicket-taking table with 17. The problem is that until the batsmen start scoring some runs (their top scorer is Hanuma Vihari with a meagre 166) that net run rate is going to be a problem and they need to not only win, but win with some comfort in order to make those play-offs.
Chennai Super Kings
Chennai sit atop the table with nine wins from 12 games, but Saturday’s heavy defeat in Mumbai cost them the chance to seal an automatic play-off spot by winning in Hyderabad. MS Dhoni will hope that that clumsy defeat, in which they were bowled out for 79 and leading batsman Michael Hussey was dropped three times in an over en route to top scoring with 22, serves as a wake-up call, as defeat here opens up the possibility of them missing the post-season altogether. On the positive side, Chris Morris is at last showing some of the form that made him Chennai’s biggest signing of the 2013 auction and Dwayne Bravo’s excellent run with the ball continued as he picked up another wicket to make him the first to 20 this season. Both will fancy their chances of taking wickets against the lacklustre Hyderabad batting, the bigger question is whether their own batsmen can recover from the weekend’s performance against Steyn, Mishra & co?
Venue and Conditions
The Rajiv Gandhi International Stadium has been a happy hunting ground for the Sunrisers so far. They’ve won every home match, the last two by six and seven wickets. It isn’t the easiest ground to score runs on, with the top first innings score being 130, and the only time that a team has won batting first was in the hosts’ opening game, when they beat an already weak Pune side. There are some heavy rain showers predicted for the afternoon, but these are expected to clear up by the time the game starts and with temperatures still in the high thirties even at 8.30pm there shouldn’t be a delayed start.
Match Odds
Hyderabad are 2.46 outsiders to Chennai’s 1.62. Given their unbeaten home record, which includes sides currently above them in the table such as Bangalore and Rajasthan, that looks a good value bet to me, especially if they get to bat second.
Top Hyderabad Batsman
There’s been a temptation all through this season to back Sangakkara purely on the basis that he’s a world class batsman who has to come good eventually. Well, it hasn’t happened yet and watching him scratch around as his team chased down 80 to beat Delhi at the weekend it doesn’t look like happening any time soon, so resist that temptation. Instead, back another of Hyderabad’s overseas stars in Darren Sammy, who is striking the ball very well and who has been batting higher up the order than Sangakkara. He should be priced at around 5.0.
Top Chennai Batsman
Hussey is always the safe bet for Chennai, even managing to stop score in the weekend debacle, but for that reason he’ll be short odds. There will be better odds to have on Dhoni, who often promotes himself up the order following bad performances and who should be available at around 4.4.
Recommended Bet:
Back Sunrisers Hyderabad at 2.46 to win.
Milesey
( betfair )
HORSE RACING TIPS
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WEDNESDAY 8TH MAY 2013 – CHESTER – LIVE ON CHANNEL 4
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It is a typically difficult card on day one of the Chester May meeting, though, so the honest advice is to keep stakes low. But there are three possible value plays, headed by Theology in the feature race at 14:45.
Now, at first viewing, this horse doesn’t have an obvious chance at odds of 24.0 on Betfair. But dig a bit further and he is not without hope.
He didn’t cut the mustard in two starts over hurdles over the winter but there was definite promise in his fifth on the all-weather at Kempton last month. That will have tuned him up nicely and he is arguably the best handicapped horse in here on the form that he showed for Jeremy Noseda in Group races, albeit two or three years ago.
He is now 11lb lower than when third to Berling and Tominator here, with Ile de Re in behind, over 1m6f two years ago, so handles the course. And he was just touched off in the Queen’s Vase in his pomp, so stamina shouldn’t be an issue either, and fast ground is ideal. All in all, I’ve seen far worse 20+ chances.
Smugglers Gold didn’t start his career too promisingly when last of eight on his debut in March, but he could just underline the progress he has made since by taking the Lily Agnes Stakes at 13:45. odds of around 13.0 would be fair.
To be fair, he missed the break on his first start, but has looked much better since, posting a couple of good speed figures in the context of this race when third at Leicester and when winning decisively at Lingfield last time.
He certainly can’t afford to miss the kick here – which is maybe why connections have put the visor back on that he wore at Leicester – but he is well berthed in stall two and is worth chancing at a price in this better company.
There were plenty of glum faces after Elik was beaten at Wolverhampton last month, as apparently she had been showing up very well at home for a horse with relatively modest form at two. But I suspect that her odds-on backers got very unlucky there as the winner, debutante Woodland Aria, is apparently heading to the Lingfield Oaks Trial next.
The bare form of that second still leaves Elik with plenty to find on the book here. But she is going the right way and she is certainly bred to appreciate the 2f step up in trip, being by Dalakhani out of a French Group 2 winner over 1m2f110yd. She is worth a shot in the 14:15, which looks a very winnable listed race. She would rate a fair bet at around the 10.0 mark when betting settles down.
Silvanus did look very interesting in the 15:15 after his third at Epsom last time, especially as he won over course and distance last season, when making all. But that will be very difficult from stall nine here, so he is reluctantly passed over. It wouldn’t surprise me were Gatepost to run a big race from a falling handicap mark, but the more I look, the more this race looks a no-play event to me.
Recommended Bets
Back Theology in the Chester Cup, 14:45
Back Smuggler’s Gold in the Lily Agnes Stakes, 13:45
Back Elik in the Chester Oaks, 14:15
Milesey
“”Djokovic faces a tricky match first up against Grigor Dimitrov and a lay of the Serb 2-0 at 1.30 is certainly worthy of consideration if Dimitrov can repeat the form he showed against Rafa Nadal in Monte-Carlo.””
ATP – SINGLES: Madrid (Spain), clay
Djokovic N. (Srb) 1-1 Dimitrov G. (Bul)
( 6-7 ) ( 7-6 )
game just gone into a 3rd set
————————————————–
ATP – SINGLES: Madrid (Spain), clay
Murray A. (Gbr) 2-0 Mayer F. (Ger)
( 7-6 ) ( 7-6 )
Milesey
RESULT
ATP – SINGLES: Madrid (Spain), clay
Djokovic N. (Srb) 1 – 2 Dimitrov G. (Bul)
( 6-7 ) ( 7-6 ) ( 3-6 )
Milesey
————————————————————————————————-
“”Djokovic faces a tricky match first up against Grigor Dimitrov and a lay of the Serb 2-0 at 1.30 is certainly worthy of consideration if Dimitrov can repeat the form he showed against Rafa Nadal in Monte-Carlo.””
ATP – SINGLES: Madrid (Spain), clay
Djokovic N. (Srb) 1-1 Dimitrov G. (Bul)
( 6-7 ) ( 7-6 )