Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao (Saturday, 15:15)
Atletico Madrid are setting the pace in La Liga and they will be looking to strengthen their position at the summit of the standings when Athletic Bilbao come calling on Saturday.
Diego Simeone's side are dreaming of a first title since 2014 after taking maximum points from 12 of their opening 15 Spanish top-flight tussles of the season.
Having said that, the capital club suffered a shock setback when crashing out of the Copa del Rey to third-tier minnows Cornella in midweek, so Simeone will demand a response on Saturday.
Athletic Bilbao, meanwhile, began life under new manager Marcelino on Wednesday night with a 3-2 defeat at home to Barcelona, but they may struggle to replicate that performance at the Wanda Metropolitano.
This is the type of assignment that the hosts have become particularly efficient in dealing with, however, there is little value in backing Atleti at a general 4/7 so I will head to Bet 365's Bet Builder market to get a bigger price.
If we combine Atletico Madrid to win, under five match goals and over zero Athletic Bilbao cards we will be presented with a nice looking 5/6 shot.
Simeone's side have been their typically stubborn selves this season – five of their seven home wins this term have been to nil and they have conceded just six league goals to date.
When digging slightly deeper it can be seen that the Atletico Madrid win and under five match goal combo has clicked in 11/12 Atleti La Liga victories this season so I'm more than happy to support the same formula on Saturday.
It's also worth noting that Los Leones have won just one of their nine away matches this season, five of which have ended in defeat, and that does not bode well ahead of a trip to table-topping Atletico Madrid who are undefeated in 19 matches on home turf.
The Basque Country guests are averaging 2.56 yellows per game this season – the fourth-highest tally in La Liga – and with in mind, coupled with referee Alejandro Hernandez's 4.75 card per 90 minute average, I'll add at least one Athletic Bilbao booking to the above-mentioned Bet Builder.
- Atletico Madrid To Win, Under 5 match Goals & Over 0 Athletic Bilbao Cards – Bet Builder – 5/6 (Bet 365)