France vs Paraguay Saturday, (22:00)
With a place in the World Cup quarter finals at stake, France and Paraguay meet at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia on Saturday evening.
France topped Group I with a perfect record, beating Senegal 3-1, Iraq 3-0 and Norway 4-1, before adding a 3-0 win over Sweden in the Round of 32. Paraguay finished third in Group D, losing to the USA 4-1, beating Turkiye 1-0 and drawing 0-0 with Australia, before edging past Germany on penalties following a 1-1 draw in the last 32.
France To Win In 90 Minutes
France look the standout side left in this half of the draw. Across their four matches they have racked up 9.20 xG, the best mark of any team at this World Cup, built on 73 total shots and 29 shots on target.
Paraguay, by contrast, have managed just 1.45 xG in four matches. Their route through has been built on defensive resilience rather than control, sitting under 45% possession in three of their four matches, and with Michael Olise operating centrally in France's 10 role, Paraguay's midfield pair will have their hands full without the ball for long spells.
Worth noting this is a 90 minute market rather than qualification, and Paraguay's only knockout game so far went to penalties, so there's a genuine route to this leg losing even if France go through.
Kylian Mbappe 2+ Shots On Target
Mbappe has hit at least 2 shots on target in every match he's played at this World Cup, with a spread of 4, 2, 3 and 4 across his four appearances, an average of 3.25 per game. Paraguay's defence backs up the case for more of the same, having conceded at least 5 shots on target in every one of their four matches, an average of 5.5 per game.
With Paraguay set to sit deep and cede the ball, France's chances, and Mbappe's shots, should flow from sustained spells of pressure against a defence that has already shown it lets shots through consistently.
Michael Olise To Be Fouled 1+ Time
Look for Michael Olise to be fouled at least once on Saturday evening.
The France winger has drawn a foul in every match he's played at this World Cup, with 1, 2, 1 and 2 fouls won across his four appearances, an average of 1.5 per game. Operating in the 10 role, Olise will spend the evening receiving between the lines in the space Andres Cubas and Matias Galarza are trying to protect, and both have shown a willingness to foul when put under pressure there.
Cubas has committed 1, 1, 5 and 5 fouls across his four matches, while Galarza has added 4, 1 and 2 in his three appearances, underlining that Paraguay's central pair are prepared to concede a free kick rather than let a player like Olise turn between the lines.
Paraguay To Be Shown A Card
Paraguay have picked up at least one card in every match they've played at this World Cup, a run of four from four. They were shown five cards against the USA, one yellow and a red against Turkey, one against Australia and two against Germany.
With Juan Jose Caceres, Andres Cubas and Matias Galarza all carrying that same willingness to foul under pressure, and France set to dominate territory and force Paraguay into repeated defensive actions, another card for the South Americans looks close to a formality.
Recommended Bet
- France To Win In 90 Minutes
- Kylian Mbappe 2+ Shots On Target
- Michael Olise To Be Fouled 1+ Time
- Paraguay To Be Shown A Card
- Bet Builder — 5/6 with Bet365
The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
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