In football betting, a “shot on target” typically refers to any shot directed towards the goal that would have gone in had it not been saved by the goalkeeper or blocked by the last defender.
This betting market involves predicting the total number of shots on target during a match by a team or individual player, often including shots that were saved or blocked but were otherwise on target.
Our shots on target betting picks
I’m not going to apologise for going back on set pieces against Southampton and Leicester. Last weekend James Tarkowski had a shot at goal for a winner for the column, and we backed the wrong centre-back at Ipswich as Dara O’Shea had two attempts at goal, including missing the target with a free header from inside the six-yard box.
Man Utd vs Leicester
Manchester United's upcoming match against Leicester City presents a strategic opportunity to exploit Leicester's vulnerabilities in defending set pieces. Leicester have conceded the second-highest xGA from set pieces in the Premier League, with a total of 6.0 xGA, yet have allowed only one actual goal from these situations. This discrepancy suggests that their current defensive record may not be sustainable.
Manchester United have capitalised on set pieces this season, netting three goals from such scenarios. Central defender Matthijs de Ligt has been particularly effective, registering three headed attempts on goal.
His aerial prowess makes him a significant threat against Leicester's set-piece defence.
Skybet offers odds of 3.25 for de Ligt to have a header on target, while I wouldn’t put anyone off taking the 9.5 at Bet365 for him to score at any time during the match. Given Leicester's struggles with set-piece defence and de Ligt's offensive capabilities, these bets present intriguing opportunities.
- Best Bet: Matthijs de Ligt to have a header on target at 3.25 with Skybet
Wolves vs Southampton
Southampton's vulnerability to set pieces has been a significant issue this season. They have conceded seven goals from set pieces, with an xGA of 7.25 in these situations, indicating a persistent defensive weakness. Notably, 37% of the goals they've allowed have come from set pieces, underscoring this defensive frailty.
Wolverhampton Wanderers are likely to target this weakness in their upcoming match. Two players stand out as potential threats:
Jorgen Strand Larsen: The robust centre forward has already registered six headed attempts this season. In the previous season with Celta Vigo, he recorded 22 headed shots, highlighting his aerial prowess.
Craig Dawson: Known for his threat during set pieces, Dawson has taken four shots, including three headers, in his seven starts this season. Last season, he amassed 16 shots, with five on target, across 25 Premier League appearances.
Given Southampton's struggles with set-piece defence, both Larsen and Dawson could play pivotal roles in exploiting this vulnerability during their encounter.
- Best Bet: Jorgen Strand Larsen to have a headed shot on target at 2.88
- Best Bet: Craig Dawson to have a headed shot on target at 4.33
Spurs vs Ipswich
In the upcoming Tottenham vs Ipswich match, Spurs are heavily favoured, with Ipswich struggling to adapt to the increased competition. However, Tottenham’s defensive vulnerabilities, particularly from set pieces, may give Ipswich a chance to capitalize on rare opportunities.
Tottenham’s defence has shown a notable weakness against set pieces. They’ve conceded the third-highest xGA from set plays, with 39% of their total shots conceded arising from these situations— the highest proportion in the league. Additionally, 36% of the goals Spurs have allowed have come from set pieces, positioning them among the league's most susceptible teams in this area.
Ipswich, though challenged in open play, rank in the top five for set-piece attempts with 44, surpassing teams like Arsenal, Everton, and Aston Villa.
Despite the volume, they have generated an xG of just 2.89, translating into two goals. With Spurs likely dominating possession, set pieces may be Ipswich’s primary scoring opportunity. Dara O’Shea, who missed a promising header against Leicester last weekend, has shown his aerial potential with eight attempts in seven games, each with a header.
- Best Bet: Dara O’Shea to have a headed shot on target at 6.50 with Skybet
- Best Bet: Dara O’Shea to have over 0.5 shots at 2.00 with Bet365
Combining O’Shea, Dawson and de Ligt to all have a header on target will give you odds of 91.54 with Skybet
