York City begin their preseason campaign at the LNER Community Stadium on Saturday, with a 3pm kick off against Premier League opposition Sunderland.
Stuart Maynard's side return to action after a remarkable campaign that delivered promotion back to the Football League with a club record 108 points and 114 goals, ending a 22 year absence. Sunderland also exceeded expectations last season, finishing seventh in the Premier League with 54 points after winning promotion the previous year, although their underlying numbers painted a less convincing picture.
They averaged only 1.08 xG while conceding 1.62 xGA in home league matches, figures more consistent with a lower mid table side than one chasing European places.
Both clubs head into the new season with changed squads. York have lost captain Callum Howe while Malachi Fagan-Walcott has departed for Hearts in a club record transfer. Sunderland's preparations are dominated by availability. Regis Le Bris has already stated the early friendlies are about building fitness rather than results, and a large number of senior players remain unavailable following the World Cup or loan spells.
Anthony Patterson has returned from Millwall, Leo Hjelde is back after his loan with Sheffield United, and Jenson Seelt is working his way back into contention after time at Wolfsburg. Aji Alese continues his recovery after an injury disrupted spell at Portsmouth, while Ahmed Abdullahi is expected to feature as Sunderland assess his readiness for the new campaign. Arthur Masuaku and Alan Browne have both returned from loan spells and are among the experienced options available.
Several players remain unavailable. Abdoullah Ba, Timothee Pembele and Luis Hemir Semedo are all absent following World Cup involvement, while anyone returning from the tournament has been given additional time off. Milan Aleksic is also unavailable after leaving on loan.
How the bookies view it
At the time of writing there are no odds available for this fixture.
Head to head: Little history between these two
There is little competitive history between these clubs, with York and Sunderland having spent most of the modern era operating at very different levels of the English pyramid.
Player to watch: Dan Ballard
Dan Ballard looks one of Sunderland's most important players for this fixture. With several first team regulars unavailable, he is one of the few established Premier League defenders available to start and will be expected to organise an unfamiliar back line.
He started 24 Premier League matches last season and also contributed two goals. His 26 shots and 11 efforts on target underline the threat he carries from attacking set pieces, while his experience makes him the obvious leader in a defence likely to include players still working towards full fitness.
Predicted line ups
York City (4-3-3): Watson; Fallowfield, Johnson, O'Connor, Kitching; Boateng, Banks, Hunt; Pearce, Stones, Farrar.
Sunderland (4-3-3): Patterson; Hume, Ballard, Alese, Hjelde; Seelt, O'Nien, Whittaker; Rigg, Abdullahi, Mundle.
Anything else catch the eye?
The biggest factor is where these two squads are in their preparation. York have built their entire preseason around this fixture, with a settled group already working together after promotion.
Sunderland arrive with a squad made up largely of returning loanees, fringe players and academy prospects, while many of their established Premier League players are still unavailable following the World Cup. Continuity often carries more weight than quality in the opening friendly of the summer.
Sunderland's attacking numbers also suggest expectations should be tempered. They averaged only 1.08 xG in home Premier League matches last season despite having their strongest attacking players available. This squad is missing much of that creativity, leaving Ahmed Abdullahi and Romaine Mundle among the main attacking options. York, meanwhile, retain much of the side that scored 114 league goals last season and have enjoyed a far more consistent build up.
The managers' priorities point towards a controlled contest. Regis Le Bris has made it clear fitness is the primary objective during the opening weeks of preseason, while York are likely to use this as an opportunity to test their defensive structure against higher quality opposition rather than chase an open game.
Everything points towards a competitive fixture with fewer chances than the gap between the clubs might suggest. My bet is under 2.5 goals, with prices to be confirmed once the market is available.
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