The Carabao Cup fourth-round meeting between Wrexham and Cardiff City at the Stok Cae Ras on Tuesday, brings together two Welsh clubs in contrasting positions but with similar momentum.
It is their first meeting since 2004 and the first time in 62 years they have faced each other in this competition.
Wrexham, now in the Championship, have grown into life at the higher level and continue to ride the energy that followed back-to-back promotions. Their EFL Cup run has been impressive, with victories over Hull, Preston and Reading.
The data backs up their progress as they have produced 4.9 xG in the competition, created seven big chances, and scored eight goals. Their xPTS numbers in the league also point to a side performing close to expectation, built on an expansive attacking approach that leaves them open but always dangerous.
Cardiff arrive full of confidence after their shock third-round win away to Premier League Burnley. Relegated from the Championship last season, they have responded with a quick start in League One, sitting high on xPTS and in the table. Their Cup data is strong too, with 5.8 xG, ten big chances, and only four xGA conceded across three ties.
Callum Robinson, who scored at Burnley, insists his side “have nothing to fear” heading to North Wales, and that sums up Cardiff’s mindset under their new management. They are well organised, positive in transition, and look sharp in the final third. With both sides in confident form and the atmosphere certain to be electric, this all-Welsh clash should deliver a competitive, attacking cup tie under the lights.
How the bookies view it: Wrexham fancied by the Bookies
Wrexham are slight favourites ahead of Tuesday night’s Carabao Cup fourth-round clash with Cardiff City at the Stok Cae Ras. The hosts are priced at 13/10, which gives them an implied win probability of around 43%. Cardiff are available at 11/5, translating to roughly a 31% chance of victory, while the draw at 5/2 implies about a 29% chance.
The prices reflect Wrexham’s Championship status, strong home form, and attacking data, but they also recognise Cardiff’s impressive League One start and their upset win at Premier League side Burnley in the previous round.
In the goals markets, over 2.5 goals is 20/21, suggesting an implied probability of about 51%, while both teams to score is 4/5, equating to roughly 56%. Those odds show the bookmakers expect an open, attacking game where both sides are likely to find the net, but not necessarily a chaotic shootout.
Head to Head: First meeting in decades
Wrexham and Cardiff City have rarely faced each other in recent decades, with their last competitive meeting coming more than 20 years ago. Historically, the rivalry was more active between the 1960s and early 1990s, when both clubs often shared divisions.
Records show fixtures such as Cardiff’s 3-0 home win in October 1975 and a 0-0 draw at Wrexham in January 1983, reflecting a competitive but infrequent history. The most recent encounter came in 2004, when Wrexham triumphed on penalties in the FAW Premier Cup. Their upcoming Carabao Cup tie marks the first time the two Welsh clubs have met in this competition for 62 years.
Players to watch: Broadhead to show his class
Nathan Broadhead has been a consistent attacking outlet for Wrexham this season, combining clever movement with end-product in key moments. Across 12 appearances in all competitions, he has scored three goals from 0.9 xG and registered five shots on target from 11 attempts. His average shot accuracy of 45% and involvement in nine shot-creating actions underline his ability to influence play even in shorter appearances.
He has been especially effective in the EFL Cup, scoring twice in the third-round win over Reading, where he recorded both of his efforts on target. His domestic form mirrors that sharpness scoring against Leicester and Oxford in October, showing that his finishing touch is returning.
Broadhead averages roughly one shot every 39 minutes, with half of those on target. His attacking metrics (0.9 xG and 0.4 xAG) reflect consistent involvement in chance creation rather than heavy shooting volume. His passing success sits at 76%, and he contributes meaningfully in build up, completing over 13 progressive carries and 13 progressive passes.
With Wrexham’s forward line built around fluid rotations and width, Broadhead’s positioning between the lines makes him a regular shooting threat. Given his recent scoring run and consistent shot accuracy, Broadhead to have 1+ shot on target looks a strong angle in player markets.
Predicted line-ups
Wrexham (3-4-3): Burton; Doyle, Scarr, Brunt; Barnett, Thomason, James, McClean; Broadhead, Lee, Smith
Cardiff City (4-2-3-1): Trott; Ng, Fish, Chambers, Bagan; Wintle, J. Colwill; Ashford, R. Colwill, Davies; Robinson
Anything else catch the eye?
The numbers behind Wrexham and Cardiff point clearly towards goals. Both teams have been consistent attacking sides this season, and their underlying data reinforces the value in both teams to score & over 2.5 Goals.
Wrexham have seen both teams to score in nine of their 12 matches this season. They are at their best on the front foot, averaging around 1.55 xG per game in the Championship and creating good volume: over 13 shots per match with roughly five on target.
Their defensive side is far less convincing, allowing opponents close to 1.5 xGA per game and conceding in 10 of 12 league fixtures. In the EFL Cup, they have scored eight from 4.9 xG but also allowed 4.1 xGA, so their games are open and lively.
Cardiff mirror that pattern. They have scored in 10 of 13 games across all competitions and created 5.8 xG and 10 big chances in the EFL Cup alone. In League One, they have kept just one clean sheet in seven, and their matches average over 3.0 total goals. They push forward with pace, averaging 11 shots and four on target per match, but their back line gives up high-value chances with 4.0 xGA from their three Cup ties reflects that.
The mix of attacking strength, defensive looseness, and derby atmosphere makes this fixture perfect for goals. Both sides prefer to play on the front foot and neither are built to sit in and defend deep. With Wrexham’s home matches regularly producing end-to-end football and Cardiff dangerous on the break, this looks an ideal setup for a bet on both teams to score and over 2.5 Goals landing again.
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