
The Carabao Cup takes centre stage on Tuesday night as Wolves welcome West Ham to Molineux. Both sides enter the second-round tie under pressure after difficult starts to the season.
Wolves have endured back-to-back defeats in the Premier League, beginning with a 4-0 home loss to Manchester City before falling 1-0 at Bournemouth. They are yet to score this season and across those two matches produced just 1.02 xG. That lack of cutting edge has left manager Vitor Pereira calling for reinforcements, saying he wants “three more players” before the window shuts. The absence of Toti through suspension and knocks to Ki-Jana Hoever and Strand Larsen underline the thinness of his squad. Wolves have already lost Nelson Semedo, Rayan Ait-Nouri and Matheus Cunha this summer, while moves for defensive cover are being explored.
West Ham’s problems lie at the back. They were beaten 3-0 by Sunderland on the opening weekend and then thrashed 5-1 at home by Chelsea. Across those games they conceded eight goals from an xGA of 3.49, giving up nine big chances. Supporters voiced their displeasure during the Chelsea defeat, with large sections leaving early after Mads Hermansen’s error for the fourth goal. The £20m goalkeeper, signed from Leicester, has endured a rough start, while Graham Potter’s record sits at less than a point per game across 21 league fixtures.
Both sides look fragile. Wolves have been sterile in attack, while West Ham’s defending has been chaotic. For the winner this tie could provide a valuable lift, but for the loser, the mood around the club is likely to turn even darker.
How the bookies view it: Wolves slight favourites
Bookmakers make Wolves slight favourites at Molineux. Vitor Pereira’s side are priced at 11/8 (implied probability 42.1%) to claim the win in 90 minutes, while West Ham are available at 19/10 (implied probability 34.5%). The draw is rated a real possibility too, offered at 13/5 (implied probability 27.8%).
The goals markets show where the expectation lies. Over 2.5 goals is trading at 4/5 (implied probability 55.6%), which reflects West Ham’s defensive collapse in the early weeks and Wolves’ need to finally break their scoring drought.
For those who expect both sides to get on the scoresheet, both teams to score is quoted at 16/25 (implied probability 61.5%).
Head to Head: Honours even
The head-to-head record between Wolves and West Ham is very even, with 25 meetings producing eight Wolves wins, nine West Ham victories and one draw, along with a narrow 22-19 goals edge for the London side. Recent history has leaned slightly towards West Ham, who have won six of the last nine league clashes, although Wolves did claim the most recent meeting with a 1-0 win in April 2025.
Low-scoring contests have been common, with five of those nine games finishing under 2.5 goals, but there have also been some heavy results, including West Ham’s 4-0 win in 2020 and Wolves’ 3-0 success in 2019. Overall, it is a fixture that has tended to be tight and competitive, with neither side enjoying long spells of dominance.
Players to watch: Key player Bowen must perform for Hammers & Potter
Jarrod Bowen has yet to score this season, but history suggests it is only a matter of time before he finds the net — and Wolves away in the Carabao Cup looks a good opportunity.
Last season Bowen played all 34 league games, scoring 13 goals and providing eight assists. He recorded 86 shots, 36 on target, and generated 8.6 xG. His output was consistent across the campaign: he scored in big games against Manchester United, Tottenham, Southampton and Ipswich, and remained a threat whether deployed centrally or from the right. Importantly, Bowen registered at least one shot in 29 of his 34 starts, underlining his reliability in getting chances.
So far this season he has been involved in both of West Ham’s matches, playing 180 minutes, attempting six shots with two on target, and carrying an xG of 0.2. While he has not scored yet, his numbers show he is still getting into shooting positions and remains heavily involved in the final third.
The opposition context also matters. Wolves have conceded five goals in two games, allowing 3.76 xG and five big chances. Their back line is weakened by Toti’s suspension and Hoever’s injury, while Vitor Pereira’s side have already struggled to cope with runners in wide areas. Bowen’s pace, movement and tendency to drift inside make him ideally placed to exploit those gaps.
With Niclas Fullkrug expected to be rotated, Bowen is West Ham’s most likely scorer. His track record, shot volume, and Wolves’ defensive issues make him an appealing anytime scorer bet at Molineux.
Predicted line-ups
Wolves (3-4-3): Johnstone; Agbadou, Munetsi, S. Bueno; Doherty, Bellegarde, Joao Gomes, Moller Wolfe; Arias, Hwang, Rodrigo Gomes
West Ham (4-2-3-1): Areola; Walker-Peters, Mavropanos, Kilman, Scarles; Guido Rodriguez, Potts; Bowen, Paqueta, Irving; Wilson
Anything else catch the eye?
This game sets up well for goals. Both Wolves and West Ham arrive with glaring weaknesses, and that should open the door for a high-scoring contest.
West Ham’s defensive record is alarming. They have shipped eight goals in their first two matches, conceding nine big chances and allowing opponents 19 shots inside the box. Chelsea alone generated 2.74 xG at the London Stadium, while Sunderland put up 0.75 xG and still scored three. Across those games West Ham’s opponents recorded 11 shots on target, which points to a defence being carved open too easily.
Wolves have the opposite issue in that their attack has misfired, but the raw numbers suggest opportunities are coming. They had 15 shots against Manchester City and 14 touches in the box at Bournemouth, while debutant Jhon Arias came close to levelling in that game. Pereira’s side may lack ruthlessness, but against a West Ham defence this porous, even a modest attacking output could translate into goals.
There is also the question of game state. Both teams are under pressure, and this is a cup tie with no margin for error. That typically lends itself to an open contest, especially if an early goal arrives. Wolves’ two matches so far have averaged 2.5 xG in total, while West Ham’s have averaged over 4.2. Combine those numbers with the defensive fragility on show, and it is easy to see why this could turn into a free-flowing match.
With both teams desperate for a response and vulnerabilities clear at either end, over 2.5 goals looks a strong angle at Molineux.