The new Super Lig campaign continues on Monday night as Trabzonspor welcome newly promoted Kocaelispor to Papara Park. It is the first competitive meeting between the clubs since Kocaelispor’s top flight relegation in 2003, and the hosts will be keen to make a statement against last season’s 1. Lig champions.
Trabzonspor finished seventh last term with 51 points, two shy of the top six. Their underlying numbers were stronger than their league position suggested, posting an xPTS of 54.6, total xG of 54.3 and xGA of 51.9, but too many draws stalled progress. At home, they averaged 2.22 goals per game and scored in 94% of fixtures. This summer saw the departure of key players Pedro Malheiro, Simon Banza, and John Lundstram, but Fatih Tekke’s side recruited well. The headline arrival is Paul Onuachu from Southampton, supported by Kazeem Olaigbe from Rennes, Felipe Augusto from Cercle Brugge, and Wagner Pina from Estoril.
Kocaelispor were excellent last season in the second tier, winning the title and returning to the Super Lig. Ambitious but operating on one of the league’s lowest budgets, they are realistic about a likely relegation battle. Most of last season’s core remains, while the standout signing is Bruno Petkovic from Dinamo Zagreb. Other key arrivals include Aleksandar Jovanovic, Joseph Nonge, Massadio Haidara, Anfernee Dijksteel, and Mateusz Wieteska. Pre season brought convincing wins over Adana Demirspor and Wydad.
Both arrive in decent shape, but Kocaelispor face a steep step up in quality. Trabzonspor are favourites, though the visitors’ attack should ensure a competitive opener.
How the bookies view it: Host strong favourites
Trabzonspor are 3/5 favourites, which implies a 62.5% chance of victory, with the draw at 13/4 (23.5%) and Kocaelispor 5/1 outsiders (16.7%). The market also prices over 2.5 goals at 4/5, an implied probability of 55.6%, while both teams to score is 17/20, equating to 54.1%. The prices reflect confidence in Trabzonspor’s home advantage and attacking quality, but also recognise Kocaelispor’s ability to score, especially given their 79% away scoring rate in 1. Lig and Trabzonspor’s 61% home conceding rate last term.
Head to Head: Host edge it
Trabzonspor and Kocaelispor have met only six times in competitive action, with Trabzonspor winning three, Kocaelispor taking two victories, and one match ending in a draw. Their most recent encounters came in the 2008–09 season, when Trabzonspor won 2-1 in December and 3-1 in May. Historically, these matches have tended to produce goals, averaging just under three per game, and while the small sample leans in Trabzonspor’s favour, Kocaelispor have shown they are capable of getting positive results in this fixture.
Players to watch: Zubkov to continue impressive home record
Oleksandr Zubkov’s home form last season makes a strong case for backing him to register two or more shots on target against Kocaelispor. In the six home league matches where he played more than 45 minutes, he produced 22 shots in total, with 12 hitting the target. He reached at least two shots on target in four of those games and only once failed to test the goalkeeper. Zubkov’s role in the front line under Fatih Tekke sees him drift inside from wide areas, often finding himself in central shooting positions. His accuracy rate of more than 54% at home reflects not just volume but efficiency. Against a newly promoted Kocaelispor side that conceded in 68% of away matches last season, Zubkov should have both the space and the service to generate multiple efforts on target in this fixture.
Predicted line-ups
Trabzonspor (4-2-3-1): Cakir, Batagov, Savic, Saatci, Pina, Yokuslu, Mendy, Cham, Eskihellac, Sikan, Zubkov
Kocaelispor (4-3-3): Jovanovic, Dijksteel, Wieteska, Appindangoye, Haidara, Nonge, Celik, Tunali, Caglayan, Petkovic, Mendes
Anything else catch the eye?
Both Trabzonspor and Kocaelispor have the attacking profiles to make both team to score a strong option. Last season, Trabzonspor ranked in the top half of the Super Lig for home shot volume, averaging 14.6 attempts per game and 5.2 on target, while also creating 2.1 big chances per home fixture. They converted in 94% of their matches at Papara Park but also conceded 1.22 goals per home game. Their defensive numbers underline the point: they allowed 10.8 opposition shots and 4.6 on target per game, leaving openings for visiting sides.
Kocaelispor’s numbers in the 1. Lig show why they can take advantage. Away from home, they averaged 12.3 shots, 4.4 on target, and generated 1.42 xG per match, converting over 50% of their big chances. They scored in 79% of away fixtures and posted 53% both teams to score overall. Their new look attack, bolstered by Bruno Petkovic’s physical presence and link play, plus the pace and creativity from Massadio Haidara and Joseph Nonge, adds further threat.
Defensively, Kocaelispor conceded in 68% of away games and faced over five shots on target per match, figures that will likely rise in the Super Lig. With Trabzonspor’s strong home scoring record and Kocaelispor’s consistent away threat, the numbers point towards both sides finding the net in this opener.
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