Swansea City welcome Manchester City to the Swansea.com Stadium on Tuesday night for a Carabao Cup fourth-round tie that pits the Championship side against one of the best sides in the Premier League over the last decade.
It is a tough assignment for Alan Sheehan’ team, who will look to channel the energy of a strong home crowd against a City side likely to rotate but still stacked with quality.
Swansea come into this game after a 2-1 win over Norwich at the weekend, a result that lifted them into mid-table. Their underlying numbers suggest steady progress, though they remain inconsistent. The Swans rank 20th in the Championship for xG ratio (43.2%) and have conceded more xG than they have created in seven of their last nine games. They have scored 15 goals at home this season, though seven of those came in the League Cup, suggesting their attacking numbers are flattered slightly by earlier rounds against lower-league opponents.
Sheehan will again turn to Zan Vipotnik, who has six goals in seven league appearances, while Eom Ji-Sung and Ronald Pereira Martins offer pace and creativity from wide areas. Malick Yalcouye returns from suspension, and Ricardo Santos remains sidelined with a knee injury.
Manchester City, meanwhile, travel to Wales after a hard-fought but disappointing league defeat against Aston Villa. Pep Guardiola is expected to rotate his squad, with James Trafford, Nico Gonzalez, Jeremy Doku, and Omar Marmoush all likely to start. Even without Erling Haaland and Rodri, who face late fitness checks, City’s squad depth remains formidable.
City have won each of their last seven meetings with Swansea, scoring at least three in four consecutive away trips. Their process data remains elite, sitting second in the Premier League for xPTS (14.0) and controlling matches with 63% average possession.
How the bookies view it: City huge favourites
Manchester City are overwhelming favourites for Tuesday night’s Carabao Cup tie against Swansea at the Swansea.com Stadium. The visitors are priced at 2/9, which gives them an implied win probability of around 82%, reflecting their dominance in both quality and depth. Swansea are major outsiders at 27/2, implying just an 11% chance of an upset, while the draw at 6/1 suggests around a 14% probability.
In the goals markets, over 2.5 goals is priced at 4/9, translating to an implied probability of roughly 69%, while both teams to score is 21/20, or about 48%. The prices clearly show bookmaker confidence in another high-scoring Manchester City performance, though there is less certainty that Swansea will contribute on the scoresheet.
Head to Head: Visitors incredibly strong against Swans
Manchester City have completely dominated this fixture in the modern era, winning 14 of the last 17 meetings with Swansea across all competitions. The only exception came back in March 2012, when Swansea claimed a 1-0 win at the Liberty Stadium, their lone victory over City in the Premier League era.
Since then, it has been one-way traffic. City have scored 42 goals across those 17 games, averaging almost 2.5 per match, while Swansea have managed just 14 in reply. The average goal difference sits at -1.65 per game for Swansea, highlighting the gulf in attacking quality.
The recent head-to-head record is particularly emphatic. City have won seven in a row, including 4-1 and 3-1 victories in the FA Cup ties in 2021 and 2019, and a 5-0 Premier League win in 2018. In their last four visits to South Wales, City have scored 12 goals, with all matches finishing over 2.5 goals.
Historically, these games have been high-scoring affairs. The last 10 competitive meetings have produced a total of 38 goals, an average of 3.8 per game, and both teams scored in six of those fixtures.
Players to watch: Marmoush to start and score
Omar Marmoush looks set to lead the line for Manchester City in the Carabao Cup tie at Swansea, and he profiles as a strong candidate to make an impact. Though limited to 156 minutes of action across four league appearances this season, he has shown flashes of the direct pace and intelligent movement that Pep Guardiola values in his rotating forward line.
Marmoush has produced five shots, with two on target, and created two goal-scoring chances (SCA), including an assist in the 1-2 defeat at Brighton. His underlying data suggests promise: 0.8 xG and 1.0 xAG from limited playing time shows he is getting into scoring areas and linking well with the creative players behind him.
At Brighton, he was particularly effective drifting between centre-backs and full-backs, registering five progressive carries and completing four of six take-ons. That blend of pace, vertical runs, and technical control is exactly what City will look for against a Swansea side that concedes 1.32 xGA per match and has struggled to contain quick transitions.
With Haaland likely to be rested and rotation expected, Marmoush should get a central role supported by Gonzelez, and Doku. Swansea’s back line has allowed an average of 7.7 shots in the box per home game, which plays directly into Marmoush’s strengths.
Given City’s dominance in this fixture with 42 goals in the last 17 meetings, including 3+ goals in four straight away games chances should come. Marmoush’s blend of pressing energy and sharp movement inside the box make him a strong candidate in the anytime goalscorer market, especially if he starts as the focal point. The data and context both suggest that he is well placed to open his City account in this tie.
Predicted line-ups
Swansea City (4-2-3-1): Fisher; Key, Casey, Burgess, Samuels-Smith; Galbraith, Yalcouye; Benson, Ji-Sung, Franco; Vipotnik.
Manchester City (4-2-3-1): Trafford; Lewis, Stones, Ake, O’Reilly; Kovacic, Gonzalez; Doku, Nunes, Bobb; Marmoush.
Anything else catch the eye?
Manchester City are heavy favourites to advance in the Carabao Cup, and City to win with under 4.5 goals looks a strong play based on both process data and historical trends. Pep Guardiola’s side have won seven straight meetings with Swansea, but this fixture rarely becomes chaotic. Six of those seven games have finished with four goals or fewer, with City controlling proceedings rather than chasing high totals.
In all competitions this season, City’s matches average 2.34 non-penalty xG per game a figure that reflects efficiency rather than volume. They have also tightened up defensively, allowing just 0.87 xGA, while limiting opponents to 8.9 shots per game. Even when rotating, their structure and control of possession tend to keep games contained.
Swansea, by contrast, struggle to sustain attacking pressure against stronger sides. Their xG ratio of 43.2% ranks 20th in the Championship, and they have averaged just 3.09 shots on target per game at home in league play. Although they have scored 15 home goals this season, nearly half have come in the League Cup against lower opposition.
City’s recent away form against Championship sides in cup competitions supports this angle. They have won each of their last six without conceding more than once, and five of those six finished with under 4.5 total goals. Even with potential absentees like Haaland and Rodri, City’s expected lineup should include full international players and they should have enough control to see this through comfortably.
Swansea are organised and will likely sit deep, which could slow the tempo, but City’s quality should tell over 90 minutes. The visitors have scored at least twice in 10 of their last 12 domestic cup games, and the data points to another composed, professional win without excessive scoring.
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