Serbia come into this World Cup qualifier with a dominant home record and a clear gulf in class over their opponents. While their overall form has been patchy—winning just six of their last 20 matches in all competitions—they have drawn eight and lost six in that stretch, with matches averaging 2.25 goals. They have found the net in 14 of those games and conceded in the same number, but only seven of the 20 have seen over 2.5 goals, and both teams have scored in 10.
At home, however, Serbia are far more reliable. Their home record is W10-D5-L3 and scoring an average of 2.11 goals per match while conceding just 0.89. Their recent home form includes creditable draws with Spain and Denmark and wins over Austria and Switzerland—teams far stronger than Andorra—highlighting their ability to control games on home soil.
Andorra, by contrast, are among Europe’s weakest travellers. They have lost 14 of their last 20 away fixtures, with just two wins and four draws, and those positive results have come only against similarly low-ranked teams such as Malta, Kosovo, Liechtenstein, San Marino, Latvia, and Albania. Defensively, they concede 1.90 goals per game on the road and have kept only three clean sheets in their last 16 away trips. Offensively, they offer very little—just one goal scored in their last nine away matches and none in their last five competitive fixtures. Their first three World Cup qualifiers have all ended without a goal scored and a total xGA of 5.80.
This fixture looks like a complete mismatch. Serbia’s strong home performances, combined with Andorra’s dismal attacking output and leaky defence, point clearly toward a routine home win. With Andorra failing to score in their last five competitive outings and Serbia rarely shipping goals at home, a Serbia win to nil looks a strong angle.
How the bookies view it: Hosts should win comfortably
Bookmakers see Serbia as overwhelming favourites for their World Cup qualifier against Andorra. Serbia are priced at 1.03 to win, while the draw is available at 23.00 and an Andorra victory is a massive 71.00. The market expects goals, with over 2.5 goals priced at 1.31, while both teams to score is considered unlikely at 6.15.
Head to head: First meeting
Serbia and Andorra have not faced each other in any official football matches.
Players to watch: Set piece threat
Strahinja Pavlovic is a key figure for both Serbia and AC Milan. He offers a commanding presence in defence and will attack the ball both defensively and in the opposition box.
Pavlovic has picked up 45 caps and scored 4 goals for Serbia. While primarily a defender, his attacking involvement is notable—during Serbia’s recent UEFA Nations League campaign, only two players had more shots than him. He registered seven shots across six games, with two on target, and managed at least one attempt in five of those matches. The only time he failed to register a shot was against Spain, and he was also quiet in front of goal in the recent 0-0 draw with Albania.
Nevertheless, his consistent shot volume and presence in the box make him a clear set-piece threat. Against weaker opposition like Andorra, where Serbia are expected to dominate territory and win plenty of free-kicks and corners, Pavlovic is likely to be a danger in the air and worth monitoring in player prop markets.
Predicted line-ups
Serbia (4-2-3-1):
Rajkovic; Terzic, Pavlovic, Milenkovic, Erakovic; Gudelj, Maksimovic; Samardzic, Lukic, Zivkovic; Vlahovic
Andorra (5-4-1):
Alvarez; Rubio, Garcia, Llovera, Vales, Cervos; Vieira, Rebes, Moreno, Rosas; Rubio
Anything else catch the eye?
In their last 20 away international matches, Andorra have managed just 11 first-half corners in total, with 10 of those coming against lower-tier opponents Albania, Malta, and Moldova. They managed only a single first-half corner against Latvia, and in 16 of those 20 games they failed to register a single first-half corner at all. This underlines how rarely they build sustained attacking pressure early in games when playing away, particularly against stronger sides.
Serbia, by contrast, have conceded an average of just 1.33 first-half corners per game, and even that average is skewed by games against much higher-level opposition. Spain managed four, while Switzerland, Denmark, and Austria each earned two. But notably, sides like Norway, Slovenia, Lithuania and even England failed to win a single first-half corner against them. The pattern is clear—Serbia tend to control early possession and territory, limiting corner opportunities for visiting teams.
Andorra are typically only able to generate attacking momentum and win corners when facing similarly weak teams, and against more dominant sides, they struggle to progress the ball past midfield, let alone into dangerous areas. Given the disparity in quality and the evidence from past games, it's highly likely that Andorra will once again fail to win a first-half corner here. This offers a sharp, data-backed betting angle in what is otherwise a tough match to extract value from.
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