South American giants face off in the final round of the group stage, as Universitario aim to join River Plate in the knockout phase of the Copa Libertadores.
As one of the favourites to win the competition, River Plate had zero problems qualifying for the next stage and remain unbeaten ahead of the final round. But the Millionaires will still aim to finish the group phase strong, as they got knocked out of the domestic league's playoffs last week and are free from assignments until mid-July.
Standing on their way are the reigning Peruvian champions, Universitario de Deportes, who are celebrating their 100th year and eager to make the most of their anniversary season. But while Los Cremas are pushing towards a third consecutive domestic title with confidence, their performance in the Copa Libertadores leaves much to be desired. Losing to River Plate with a big margin could lead to their elimination, but even a point will be enough to get them through.
How the bookies view it: River Plate to repeat their recent performance
Bookmakers expect River Plate to remain flawless after this round and gave them a significant betting advantage. You can pick the Millionaires at 2/5, while Universitario are available at 17/2. Or you can pick the draw at 33/10 if you expect a tight contest.
Additionally, there is an interesting discrepancy in the odds for the goal markets. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 3/4, but both teams to score is offered at 19/20, meaning that bookies expect 3+ goals but only from River Plate.
Recent head to head: Universitario's defence wasn't good enough
While River Plate and Universitario are two of the most successful teams on the continent, they met each other for the first time in the Copa Libertadores this year. The reverse fixture in April ended in a minimal 1-0 for River Plate. Before that, the teams had met only once – in 2015, when Universitario won with the same scoreline.
Players to watch: Driussi with a highlight
Sebastian Driussi took a while to adjust to the new scenery but is finally proving why River Plate paid 10 million to sign him from Austin FC. The 29-year-old needed four months to score his first goal for River Plate but once that happened, he went on to score in five consecutive games. And now, he is the team's top scorer in the Copa Libertadores with three goals, as he scored once in each of the previous three rounds.
Probable line-ups
River Plate: Armani, Acuna, Quarta, Pezzella, Bustos, Lanzini, Perez, Fernandez, Driussi, Mastantuono, Colidio
Universitario: Britos, Inga, Di Benedetto, Riveros, Corzo, Polo, Carabali, Urena, Concha, Flores, Valera
Anything else catch the eye?
Stylistically, these teams are on the very opposite ends of the spectrum. Universitario's matches rarely produce many highlights, with all five of their Copa Libertadores fixtures ending with less than three goals. They average 1.2 goals per match, which is nothing compared to River Plate's 3.6 goals per game. The Millionaires have scored 12 goals in five games and also crushed Independiente del Valle 6-2 in the previous round.
While River Plate have already qualified for the next stage and do not necessarily need the three points, we expect that they will want to make it up to their fans for the disappointing elimination from the domestic playoffs. But Universitario are a tough nut to crack, so we wouldn't risk too much money on the goal markets. With all things considered, a 2-0 win sounds like a good shout. Other than that, betting on cards is usually a solid option in this competition, and the reverse fixture between River Plate and Universitario produced 10 yellow cards.
GambleAware