RB Leipzig will finish outside the Top 4 for only the second time since they joined the elite nearly a decade ago. But European football is still on the table, but for that, they must deal with Stuttgart.
RB's setback against Werder Bremen last week put an end to their chances of making it to the Champions League next season. Ahead of the final round, the Red Bulls find themselves out of the Top 6 but with a valid chance of displacing Mainz in the Conference League spot. On paper, Stuttgart are not a team anyone would want to face with so much on the line, but RB have had a lot of success against the Swabians in recent years.
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Had Stuttgart found this form a few weeks earlier, they would have been in the fold for Europe. But their back-to-back wins were not enough, and they reside four points behind Mainz in 6th. There have been positives even after this disappointing season, namely, Stuttgart's goal-scoring performance. But other than that, the Swabians need to rebuild their defence in the summer or the next season will not be much different.
How the bookies view it: RB to take revenge
Bookmakers gave RB Leipzig the betting advantage but the gap is not that significant. Given the most recent encounters, it is hard to bet against Stuttgart, but you can pick the Red Bulls at 1/1. Meanwhile, the draw has been priced at 16/5 and Stuttgart's win at 11/5.
Recent head to head: The Swabians won three in a row
While Stuttgart won the last three encounters, this shouldn't take away from the fact that RB Leipzig have a perfect record at home against the Swabians. The Red Bulls have won all six home H2Hs since 2017. More impressively, the goal difference after those six games is 16:2. Stuttgart won the reverse fixture in January 2-1 and then the teams also met in the DFB Pokal semi-finals in April. Stuttgart made it to the final after winning 3-1.
Players to watch: Will Openda make it 10?
RB and Stuttgart met twice this season and two players had the same impact in both. Stuttgart's Nick Woltemade and RB Leipzig's Benjamin Sesko both scored once in each of the games. For yet another season, Sesko is one of RB's top scorers, while Woltemade scored in back-to-back games for the Swabians before this match. Other than them, Lois Openda is always a threat, although he had his worst season since 2020/21 this year. He has nine league goals and just one chance left to make it 10.
Probable line-ups
RB Leipzig: Gulacsi, Raum, Lukeba, Bitshiabu, Nedeljkovic, Kampl, Vermeeren, Simons, Baku, Openda, Sesko
Stuttgart: Nubel, Vagnoman, Dakhil, Chabot, Mittelstadt, Keitel, Karazor, Demirovic, Leweling, Fuhrich, Undav
Anything else catch the eye?
The last few H2Hs were absolutely mental. Each of the last six H2Hs featured goals from both sides. Each of the last five ended with 3+ goals at FT. While Stuttgart have nothing to play for at this point, they will put up a fight, especially after beating RB three times in a row.
But in the end, we expect the Red Bulls to end their negative streak and extend their home record against the Swabians to 7-0. RB lost only one of their last 10 home matches in all competitions, although there were certain setbacks like the draws with Holstein Kiel and Hendenheim.
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