The Champions League third qualifying round second leg sees Pafos host Dynamo Kyiv at the Stelios Kyriakides Stadium on Tuesday night. The Cypriot champions hold a 1-0 advantage from the first leg, where they made the most of limited possession to secure a vital away win.
Pafos arrive in strong shape. Domestically last season they topped the Championship group with 82 points, boasting the best defence in Cyprus, conceding just 21 goals in 36 matches. Their European run this year began with a 1-1 home draw against Maccabi Tel Aviv before a disciplined 1-0 win in Israel. In the first leg against Kyiv, they put five of their seven shots on target, underlining their clinical edge. The club has retained key players like Muamer Tanković and added depth to maintain balance across midfield and attack.
Kyiv, unbeaten in the Ukrainian Premier League so far, have scored 12 goals in five competitive matches this season, winning four of them. They eased past Hamrun Spartans 6-0 on aggregate in the previous round but were frustrated by Pafos last week, managing only one shot on target from eight attempts. The summer saw them hold on to veterans like Andriy Yarmolenko while adding younger options to refresh the squad.
Both sides know what is at stake, with a place in the play-off round the prize for the winners.
How the bookies view it: Visitors slight favourites
Pafos are priced at 21/10 to win, which implies a 32.3% chance, with the draw at 13/5 (27.8%) and Dynamo Kyiv 11/8 favourites at 42.9%. Over 2.5 goals is 23/20, equating to a 46.5% chance, while both teams to score is 10/11, or 52.4%,
Head to Head: Only second meeting
First meeting between these sides was the first leg which Pafos won 1-0.
Players to watch: Andersen to do it again
Anderson Silva looks a strong option in the anytime goalscorer market for the second leg against Dynamo Kyiv. He came off the bench in the first leg to score the decisive goal, showing his ability to make an instant impact in tight European matches.
Whether he starts or is used as an impact substitute, it is almost certain he will see minutes, particularly if Kyiv are chasing the game. In that scenario, Pafos can exploit space in behind, and Anderson’s pace, movement, and composure in front of goal make him an ideal outlet on the break.
Last season he scored 11 league goals and added further strikes in Europe and domestic cups, underlining his consistent finishing record. His versatility to play centrally or on either flank increases his chances of getting into dangerous positions, especially in transition. With Kyiv needing to push forward, the match situation could suit Anderson perfectly, giving him a strong platform to find another key goal for Pafos.
Predicted line-ups
Pafos FC (4-3-2-1): Michael, Joao Pedro, Goldar, Luckassen, Pileas, Rodrigues, Sunjic, Dragomir, Orsic, Tankovic, Jaja
Dynamo Kyiv (4-3-3): Neshcheret, Tymchyk, Popov, Brazhko, Dubinchak, Pikhalyonok, Shaparenko, Buyalskyi, Yarmolenko, Vanat, Voloshyn
Anything else catch the eye?
The first leg in Poland was tight and controlled, with Pafos limiting Dynamo Kyiv to just one shot on target from eight attempts. That defensive discipline is nothing new as they have conceded only one goal in three European qualifiers this season and kept clean sheets in 56% of home league games last term.
Kyiv’s away record in European knockout football shows similar trends. Last season they conceded two goals or fewer in four of five away matches, often controlling territory without producing a high volume of clear chances. In xPTS terms, their success last year was built more on efficiency than high-scoring encounters, particularly against sides willing to sit deep.
Pafos are unlikely to be expansive here. Protecting a lead suits their shape, and last season in the Cypriot topflight only 44% of their games went over 2.5 goals. In Europe this year, all three of their matches have gone under.
With both sides preferring structure over chaos in this type of fixture, the combination of Under 2.5 goals and both teams to score No aligns with the trends. Kyiv will need to take risks eventually, but Pafos’ ability to limit big chances and manage games makes another low-scoring contest the most probable outcome.
GambleAware