World Cup qualification resumes in Oslo on Friday night as Norway host Israel at Ullevaal Stadium. The Group A leaders have a perfect record so far, winning all five matches and scoring 24 goals in the process.
Victory here would all but seal top spot for Stale Solbakken’s side, who have looked far more balanced and ruthless since last year’s Nations League campaign.
Norway’s dominance is reflected in their metrics. They sit top of the group for both xPTS and xG ratio, averaging 2.45 xG per game while allowing just 0.64. Their 11-1 win over Moldova last month underlined how clinical they have become.
Even without Martin Odegaard, who misses out through injury, the team’s structure remains stable and focused around Erling Haaland, who has scored nine times in qualifying and captains the side in Odegaard’s absence.
Israel come into this one third in the group after a wild 5-4 home defeat to Italy. Their qualifying campaign has been entertaining but inconsistent, with 15 goals scored and 11 conceded in five games.
They have scored in every qualifier but have yet to record a clean sheet on the road. Their xG figures are solid in attack at 1.75 per match, but the defensive side tells a different story with 1.92 xGA per game and one of the highest shots conceded totals in UEFA qualifying.
Israel’s attacking intent makes them dangerous, but Norway’s balance, firepower, and home record give them a clear edge. The reverse fixture in March finished 4-2 to Norway, and the numbers suggest another high-scoring encounter could follow in Oslo.
How the bookies view it: Norway overwhelming favourites
Norway are overwhelming favourites for this one, priced at 3/13 to win, with the draw at 6/1 and Israel out at 12/1.
The goal markets suggest another open contest, with over 2.5 goals at 21/50 and both teams to score at 23/25. Those prices translate to implied probabilities of roughly 81% for a Norway win, 14% for the draw, and 8% for an Israel upset.
The over 2.5 goals line carries an implied likelihood of around 70%, while BTTS is just under 52%.
The odds clearly reflect both teams’ recent form and attacking patterns. Norway have averaged almost five goals per game in qualifying, while Israel’s matches have produced over five on average.
The bookmakers expect goals, and the markets align with what the data shows. Norway should dominate, but Israel’s tendency to find the net keeps the chance of a high-scoring match firmly on the table.
Head to Head: One one recent meeting
These two sides have met only once in recent years, with Norway winning 4-2 in the reverse fixture back in March. That match in Tel Aviv was open from the start, with both teams creating chances and committing bodies forward.
Norway’s superior finishing made the difference, converting four of their six shots on target while Israel struck twice from limited openings.
Players to watch: Haaland at the double
Erling Haaland to score two or more goals looks a strong angle for Norway’s home clash with Israel. His current form is exceptional, with 18 goals in his last 11 games for club and country, including nine in five World Cup qualifiers. He scored five in Norway’s 11-1 win over Moldova last month and also netted twice in the reverse fixture against Israel, where he registered seven shots on target.
Haaland’s underlying data is elite. Across those 11 appearances he has averaged 4.3 shots and 2.3 on target per game, generating 9.1 xG. Norway create plenty for him, averaging over 2.5 xG per match in qualifying and recording double figures for big chances in three of their last five.
Israel’s defence continues to leak goals, conceding nine in their last two qualifiers and five at home to Italy. Against a side that presses high and leaves space in behind, Haaland’s finishing power and movement should translate into multiple scoring opportunities.
Predicted line-ups
Norway (4-2-3-1): Nyland, Ryerson, Ajer, Ostigard, Wolfe, Berg, Berge, Sorloth, Bobb, Nusa, Haaland
Israel (4-2-3-1): Peretz (Daniel), Dasa, Shlomo, Nachmias, Revivo, Peretz (Eliel), Peretz (Dor), Bitton, Gloukh, Solomon, Baribo
Anything else catch the eye?
Norway have been relentless in front of goal, and the data strongly supports them scoring at least three times again when they face Israel in Oslo. Across their five qualifiers, Solbakken’s side have averaged 4.8 goals per game, producing 2.67 xG per 90 and a massive 3.9 big chances created per match.
They lead UEFA qualifying for shots on target, with 43 in total which is nearly nine per game, highlighting the volume and quality of their attacking play.
At home, Norway’s numbers are exceptional. In their last three competitive matches in Oslo, they have scored 19 goals, averaging over 6.0 shots on target per game and converting 41% of attempts on target.
The 11-1 demolition of Moldova wasn’t an outlier but part of a broader trend: this is now a side that sustains pressure, wins second balls, and attacks relentlessly through multiple channels.
Erling Haaland’s current form only strengthens the case. He has scored in eight of his last nine internationals, including a brace in the reverse fixture against Israel.
Israel, meanwhile, have conceded 11 goals in five qualifiers, giving up 9.1 shots inside their box per match and allowing opponents an average 1.88 xG per game. They were wide open in the 5-4 defeat to Italy and have shipped four or more goals three times in their last ten away matches.
Given Norway’s attacking metrics, conversion rate, and Israel’s defensive fragility, Norway over 2.5 team goals looks a smart play at near even money. Everything points toward another high-scoring night in Oslo.
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