Northampton Town welcome Coventry City to Sixfields Stadium on Saturday with kick off at 2pm. The visitors arrive as Championship winners after an outstanding campaign under Frank Lampard, securing promotion to the Premier League with 95 points and producing the strongest underlying numbers in the division.
Coventry averaged 2.23 xG while conceding only 1.13 xGA in home league matches, with an expected points total of 87.14 confirming their title success was fully deserved.
Northampton head into the new season from a very different position. They finished bottom of League One with 35 points and begin life back in League Two under new head coach Chris Hogg, who was appointed in May.
While the final league table looked bleak, the underlying data was more encouraging. The Cobblers averaged 1.29 xG and 1.39 xGA at home, with an expected points total of 44.26, a figure more consistent with a mid table side than one finishing bottom.
Coventry have approached the summer by keeping the core of their promotion winning squad together while adding carefully. Frank Onyeka has completed a permanent move, Loum Tchaouna has arrived from Burnley to strengthen the wide areas, and Victor Torp, Bobby Thomas and Callum Perry have all signed new contracts.
Isaac Moore has departed on loan to Walsall, while players involved at the World Cup are expected to miss the opening stages of preseason after being granted additional time off.
Lampard is unlikely to risk many established starters in his first friendly of the summer, with fringe players, returning loanees and new signings expected to receive significant minutes. Northampton, meanwhile, will see this as an ideal opportunity to measure themselves against Premier League opposition before the League Two campaign begins.
How the bookies view it
At the time of writing there are no odds available for this fixture.
Head to head: Cobblers hold the advantage
Recent meetings have generally favoured Northampton. They recorded victories in the FA Cup, Carabao Cup and League One during the previous decade, while Coventry's only success during that period came in the Checkatrade Trophy. Those results have little relevance now given how much both clubs have changed.
Player to watch: Ellis Simms
Ellis Simms looks one of the standout players available for Coventry. He scored 13 goals despite making only 15 league starts last season, highlighting the impact he made whether starting or coming from the bench.
His numbers also underline a striker who consistently gets into scoring positions, finishing the campaign with 75 shots and 34 efforts on target. With several senior internationals unavailable, this is an excellent opportunity for Simms to build momentum before Coventry return to Premier League action.
Predicted line ups
Northampton Town (4-5-1): Jeacock; Donacien, Moore, McCarthy, Opiela; Perkins, Maxwell, Hoskins, Fornah, Dobson; Saunders.
Coventry City (4-4-1-1): Wilson; Kesler-Hayden, Woolfenden, Kitching, Batanwi, Dasilva; Perry, Onyeka, Eccles, Andrews; Simms.
Anything else catch the eye?
The goals market stands out more than the result. Coventry's attacking process was comfortably the strongest in the Championship last season, averaging 2.23 xG in home league matches, and even a rotated side should create regular opportunities against League Two opposition.
Northampton's underlying numbers suggest they were better than their league position indicated, but they still conceded too many avoidable goals throughout the campaign. Chris Hogg is only beginning to implement his ideas, and facing a squad with Coventry's depth and attacking quality is a demanding first test.
Preseason friendlies between clubs at different levels often become more open after the interval as substitutions increase and fitness differences begin to show. Coventry have enough quality throughout the squad to maintain their attacking threat regardless of the changes made.
My bet is Coventry over 1.5 goals, with prices to be confirmed once the market is available.
The result itself should not be over analysed. This is primarily a fitness exercise for Coventry and an opportunity for Northampton to build minutes against high level opposition. The stronger angle comes from Coventry's attacking profile rather than any expectation of a fully competitive contest.
GambleAware