Newcastle United vs WolvesEnglish Premier League, KO: 14:00 Oct 27, 2019, St James' Park
NEWCASTLE gave their season a massive shot in the arm by dumping Manchester United on their last outing at St James' Park but that result will count for nothing if they fail to build on it against Wolves.
It looked like the Magpies might have turned a corner when they claimed a surprise 1-0 win at Spurs earlier in the season but they followed that up by going five games without a win.
The victory over Manchester United ended that dismal run but with Steve Bruce's side losing 1-0 at Chelsea in their next match they need to take something from Wolves' visit to stop a malaise setting in again.
Newcastle were lauded as the great entertainers when Kevin Keegan was boss during their 1990s heyday but excitement has been thin on the ground at St James' Park this term.
The Toon Army have seen their team score just three times in five home games this season and the only consolation has been that their defence has limited the opposition to three strikes as well.
Having foolishly tipped over 2.5 goals for the visit of Manchester United, on the evidence of past meetings, I won't be falling into the same trap here. My only consolation that day was my bet on Scott McTominay being carded came up at 4/1 so I'll be staying away from the goals market this time, with under 2.5 strikes a best 57/100 at Marathonbet.
Wolves are coming off the back of another draining Europa League game so factor that into any bets. The stats suggest a 1-1 draw is the best wager to make, as that has been the outcome in three of Wolves' Premier League games on the back of a Thursday night Euro tie.
These sides also ground out a 1-1 draw at Molinuex last term and the outcome would have been the same at St James' Park had Diogo Jota not scored in the last minute to seal a 2-1 win against the 10-man Magpies. A 1-1 draw is available here at 11/2 with BetVictor while a stalemate on its own is 111/50 at Marathonbet.
However, Wolves have also lost to Everton and claimed a shock win at Manchester City in the wake of Europa League games so it's hard to predict how they will fare here.
The come-from-behind win at Slovan Bratislava made it seven games without defeat for Nuno Espirito Santo's side after a worrying run of three successive defeats.
Wolves are starting to click so I fancy them to avoid defeat on Tyneside but the odds are poor in the double chance market, with Santo's side a best 11/25 with Marathonbet.
Games between these sides have been quiet feisty at St James' in recent years. In that 2-1 win for Wolves last season, DeAndre Yedlin saw red and there were a further six yellows.
When Wolves won 2-0 on Tyneside in the Championship three years ago it was even more bad-tempered with Vurnon Anita seeing red and seven players picking up yellows. With that kind of history, over 3.5 cards looks a good bet but Bet365 are the only firm to price up total cards at the moment and are offering 4/6.
Another red card pays 9/2 with the same firm and that's worth considering but it might be safer to back a few players for cards. Romain Saiss scored in Slovakia for Wolves on Thursday but has been more adept at collecting cards this season, with four yellows and one red.
The Moroccan is 17/10 with Paddy Power for another card here while whoever gets the nod to play left-back for Newcastle looks a good option as they will be up against the lightning-quick Adama Traore.
Paul Dummett is 5/1 with Bet365 for a card but Jetro Willens has got the nod ahead of him for the last two games and will probably keep his place. The Dutchman is 7/2 with Paddy Power for a card and that looks a good option.
In the goalscorer markets, I like the look of Traore at 5/1 with Bet365 for anytime scorer. The wide boy scored both goals in the stunning win over Manchester City and looks overpriced for another here.
Newcastle have been so poor up front that striker Joelinton is as big as 11/4 with Paddy Power to score at anytime in a home game. The Brazilian hasn't been great since his big-money move from Hoffenheim but he seems overpriced for a goal here.
This English Premier League match between Newcastle United and Wolves will be played on Oct 27, 2019 and kick off at 14:00