Nashville SC host Eastern Conference leaders Philadelphia Union this Saturday at Geodis Park in a clash between the top two sides in MLS based on expected points. Philadelphia lead the xPTS table with 36, with Nashville just behind on 35, underlining how consistent and well-balanced both teams have been throughout the season.
Nashville have built a strong home record: W6-D3-L1, scoring 21 goals and conceding just nine. They have scored in eight of their 10 home matches and kept four clean sheets, while seven of those games have gone over 2.5 goals. Their home xG is an impressive 19.3, with an xGA of just 7.5, highlighting both their attacking threat and defensive control at Geodis Park.
Philadelphia, meanwhile, are W12-D4-L4 overall, scoring 35 and conceding 20. Away from home, they have been solid: W5-D3-L2, scoring 17 and conceding eight. Their road xG sits at 1.60 and xGA at 1.52. They have kept two away clean sheets and failed to score in just two of their 10 road games. Six of those 10 have gone over 2.5 goals, suggesting they have generally involved in competitive, open matches on the road.
Both teams come into this with strong underlying numbers and consistent form. Nashville’s home strength and Philadelphia’s attacking quality on the road set this up as a tight but potentially high-scoring game. With 13 of their combined 20 home and away matches going over 2.5 goals, that looks like a logical angle in what should be a well-contested encounter.
How the bookies view it: Hosts edge it
Nashville are slight favourites at 10/11 (implied probability 52.4%). Philadelphia, despite leading the Eastern Conference and the league in xPTS, are 3/1 outsiders (implied 25%). The draw is priced at 57/20.
In the goals markets, the odds suggest a good chance of an open game. Both teams to score is 8/13 (implied probability 61.9%), while over 2.5 goals is 7/10 (58.3%).
Head to Head: Philadelphia hold the upper hand
Philadelphia Union hold the edge in the head-to-head record against Nashville SC, having won four of their nine meetings to date. Nashville have picked up two wins, with the other three matches ending in draws. The most recent clash came back in March this year, when Nashville won 3-1 away from home, a rare result in a fixture that has typically been tight. That win ended a three-game losing streak for Nashville in this matchup, which had included a 3-0 loss in Philadelphia and a 2-1 defeat at home.
Across all meetings, these two sides have averaged about two goals per game, with both teams scoring in 44% of encounters. That suggests games between them are often cagey, with goals not always guaranteed at both ends. While Philadelphia have tended to come out on top, the margins have usually been fine.
Players to watch: Surridge to concern Philly issues
Sam Surridge comes into the weekend in strong form, having registered 11 shots on target in his last six games. He has hit the target in all six and recorded two or more shots on target in five of them, underlining both his sharpness and his importance to Nashville’s attack. With Hany Mukhtar and Gaston Brugman supplying him regularly, the team’s attacking rhythm has improved, and Surridge has been at the heart of it.
This run has coincided with a productive spell at home for Nashville, where they have scored two or more goals in five of their last eight games. That trend could continue against a Philadelphia side missing several key defenders. Andre Blake, Olivier Mbaizo, Nathan Harriel, and Jakob Glesnes are all either ruled out or doubtful. Philly are likely to field a patched-up back line, which should give Surridge the space and chances to keep his run going.
Over the full season, he has had at least one shot on target in 16 of 20 appearances, and two or more in nine, which is a 45% strike rate on the higher line. He has taken 57 shots with 27 on target, a solid 47% accuracy, and even at home, where Nashville are more measured, he has managed 10 shots on target from 24 attempts across 10 games. With Philly weakened at the back and Surridge in rhythm, backing him for 1+ shot on target looks safe, although low odds, while 2+ remains a live option at the right price.
Predicted line-ups
Nashville SC (4-2-3-1): Willis; Najar, Palacios, Maher, Lovitz; Yazbek, Perez; Brugman; Mukhtar, Muyl; Surridge
Philadelphia Union (4-4-2): Rick; Bedoya, Makhanya, Damiani, Mbaizo; Gazdag, Jean Jacques, Lukic, Vassilev; Damiani, Donovan
Anything else catch the eye?
There is a strong case to be made for Nashville SC scoring at least twice against Philadelphia this weekend. They have scored two or more goals in five of their last eight home matches and carry one of the strongest attacking profiles in the league at Geodis Park. Their home xG stands at 19.3 from 10 matches, a figure that reflects not only volume but consistency in the final third. With Sam Surridge leading the line and Hany Mukhtar pulling strings in behind, they have regularly carved open teams, particularly those who try to match them in midfield.
Philadelphia arrive without several key players. Both Mikael Uhre and Tai Baribo are unavailable, meaning they will lack their first-choice forwards, and there are also absences in defence, with Olivier Mbaizo and Nathan Harriel potentially out or away on duty. Andre Blake has only just returned from injury. That instability matters, especially away from home against a side like Nashville who have been consistently efficient in attack.
Philly’s record against top six opponents also raises concerns. They have won just two of eight games, drawing three and losing three, and have conceded in seven of those matches, letting in two or more on five occasions. That includes a 3-1 loss to Nashville earlier this season. Given the matchup, form, and absentees, Nashville scoring at least twice looks likely.
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