Minnesota United host San Jose Earthquakes in Major League Soccer at Allianz Field on Saturday evening. This meeting between two Western Conference contenders has plenty riding on it, with both clubs occupying play-off spots and among the top performers on underlying numbers.
Minnesota arrive sitting third in the table, underpinned by a strong home record. They have been efficient and disciplined in Saint Paul, creating steady chances while limiting opponents. Their home xG stand at 15.5, compared to just 9.7 xGA, showing a good balance between attack and defence. Recent form has been consistent too, with a string of wins and only one defeat in their last five games.
San Jose come in as one of the league’s most entertaining and unpredictable sides. Their away matches have been full of chances at both ends. They sit second in the league on xPTS thanks to a relentless attacking approach, reflected in their impressive 22.5 xG in 11 away games. At the same time, their defensive record has been vulnerable, conceding 21.5 xG over the same period. Recent results have included several high-scoring draws and narrow wins, emphasising both their threat and their fragility.
With Minnesota’s control and San Jose’s high-tempo, open style, this game has the potential to be a fascinating contest between two sides with clear strengths.
How the bookies view it: Not much in it
Minnesota are priced at 10/11 to win, which implies around a 52% chance, while the draw is 3/1, and San Jose are 14/5, roughly a 26% chance. The market slightly favours Minnesota but sees it as a competitive game. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 13/25, implying about a 66% chance, and both teams to score is 1/2, also around 67%. The odds reflect expectations of an open match with goals at both ends, with Minnesota’s home edge making them narrow favourites despite San Jose’s attacking strength.
Head to Head: Minnesota to edge it
Minnesota United and San Jose Earthquakes have met 17 times in MLS, with Minnesota winning eight, San Jose winning five, and four ending in draws. Minnesota have scored 31 goals in those meetings compared to San Jose’s 22, averaging just over three goals per game. Both teams have scored in 11 of the 17 matches, and over 2.5 goals has landed in nine of them, while over 1.5 goals has occurred in 14. In the most recent five meetings, Minnesota are unbeaten with 3 wins and 2 draws, and the last two have seen fewer goals, staying under 2.5. Historically, the fixture leans slightly toward Minnesota, with a good chance of both sides finding the net and a tendency for open, competitive matches.
Players to watch: Markanich to fire in the shots
Anthony Markanich is a good bet for at least one shot because his numbers show a clear and consistent attacking intent, even from left back. He has started 13 games this season and taken 16 shots, registering at least one in 11 of those starts, which means he hits that mark in about 85% of his starts.
More recently, he has been even more involved going forward, with eight shots and three on target in his last five games. Minnesota’s style at home, combined with San Jose’s tendency to leave space on the flanks, gives him plenty of opportunities to join attacks and get into shooting positions. His willingness to get forward and the matchup dynamics both make him a strong candidate to record at least one shot again here.
Predicted line-ups
Minnesota United (4-2-3-1): Dayne; Anthony, Michael, Nicolas, Carlos; Julian, Joaquin; Wil, Robin, Tani; Kelvin
San Jose Earthquakes (4-3-3): Daniel; Rodrigues, Bruno, Dave, Dejuan; Vitor, Beau, Ian;
Cristian, Ousseni, Josef
Anything else catch the eye?
Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals looks a smart angle for this game given how the styles of play could combine. San Jose’s away fixtures tend to turn into end-to-end contests, with plenty of open space and mistakes at the back. Their willingness to attack in numbers leaves them exposed, but it also forces opponents into a faster rhythm.
Minnesota, while more measured, are capable of taking advantage of defensive gaps, especially when pressed into transitions. They have players who can punish errors and are unlikely to simply sit back, particularly at home.
In matches between teams with such contrasting approaches, games often open up more than expected, and defensive organisation gives way to momentum swings. That dynamic, coupled with both teams needing points, suggests a good chance of goals at both ends and a match that clears the 2.5 line.
It is not just about the numbers but also about how the match is likely to feel: open, competitive, and played at a tempo that invites chances for both.
GambleAware