Manchester City host Bournemouth at the Etihad Stadium on Sunday afternoon looking to respond from last weekend’s 1-0 defeat to Aston Villa which was their first Premier League loss since August and already their third of the campaign.
Pep Guardiola’s side remain six points behind leaders Arsenal and will be keen to quickly re-establish momentum after bouncing back in midweek with a comeback win over Swansea City to reach the EFL Cup quarter-finals.
City’s underlying numbers remain excellent despite some inconsistent results. They sit fifth for home xG ratio (61.6%), third for shots on target ratio and no side has registered more shots in the box than City. Defensively they continue to restrict opponents effectively, conceding just 0.98 xGA per match. At home, they have been dominant, winning 11 of their last 14 league games at the Etihad (D1-L2), and no team has earned more home points (34) in 2025.
Their task, though, is not straightforward against a Bournemouth side enjoying their best-ever start to a Premier League season. Andoni Iraola’s team arrive second in the table, unbeaten in eight matches since their opening-day 4-2 defeat at Liverpool (W5-D3).
Their latest result, a controlled 2-0 win over Nottingham Forest, underlined their growing confidence and organisation. Bournemouth’s away process is less convincing, sitting 16th for shots-on-target ratio (40.9%) and 15th for shots-in-box ratio (41.4%), but they have still scored in 18 of their last 20 Premier League away games it is a run few teams can match.
City have a perfect Premier League home record against Bournemouth, winning all eight meetings at the Etihad. The hosts are also joint-top scorers in the league (17 goals) and, despite recent setbacks, will fully expect to respond on Sunday in front of their own fans.
How the bookies view it: Hosts heavy favourites
Manchester City are strong favourites for Sunday’s Premier League clash at the Etihad, priced at 8/15 to win, which implies a 65.2% probability of taking all three points. Bournemouth are 11/2 outsiders, giving them an implied 15.4% chance of victory, while the draw at 19/5 represents a 20.8% probability.
The market also expects goals, with over 2.5 goals trading at 4/7, implying a 63.6% probability, and both teams to score priced at 4/6, which suggests roughly a 60% chance of landing.
Those odds align closely with the underlying data. Bournemouth have scored in 18 of their last 20 Premier League away games, including at Arsenal, Liverpool, and City at the end of last season, while City have found the net in 19 of their last 20 league matches at the Etihad.
In simple terms, the market expects City to win but not without a contest with goals at both ends look more likely than not.
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Head to Head: City strong record
Manchester City have a dominant record against Bournemouth, winning 16 of the 17 competitive meetings between the sides since 2015. The only exception came in November last year, when Bournemouth claimed a dramatic 2-1 victory at the Vitality Stadium, their first-ever Premier League win over City.
At the Etihad, City’s record is flawless as they have won all eight Premier League home games against Bournemouth, scoring 33 goals and conceding just five. Their most recent meeting in Manchester ended 3-1 in May, when City generated 1.54 xG to Bournemouth’s 1.12.
Historically, this fixture produces goals. Each of the last nine Premier League meetings has seen over 2.5 goals, while both teams have scored in six of those. Bournemouth’s attacking approach under Andoni Iraola gives them a better chance of breaking through than in previous seasons, but City’s home dominance and depth make them clear favourites once again.
Players to watch: Doku to cause defensive issues
Alex Jimenez to commit 2+ fouls looks a strong angle given the way this game is likely to play out. Bournemouth will sit deep for long spells but look to spring forward quickly with only five Premier League sides have produced more fast breaks, and no team has scored more goals from them this season. That approach means their full backs, including Jimenez, will push high to support those transitions.
The danger is what happens when possession is lost. Any time Bournemouth break and City recover the ball, Jimenez could find himself chasing Jeremy Doku in the opposite direction. That is a nightmare scenario for most defenders, let alone one still adjusting to the league.
Doku has been fouled in six of seven games when playing at least 30 minutes, with totals of 2, 3, 4, 1, 2, 0, and 2, showing how regularly he draws contact from full backs trying to stop him.
Jimenez has already committed fouls in three of his last four away starts, averaging close to two per 90. Against Doku’s pace and movement, he is likely be forced into tactical fouls both when isolated in one-v-one situations and when City counter quickly after Bournemouth lose the ball. All the data and the tactical setup point towards Jimenez committing at least two fouls.
Predicted line-ups
Man City (4-3-3): Donnarumma, Nunes, Dias, Gvardiol, O’Reilly, Gonzalez, Silva, Reijnders, Foden, Doku, Haaland
Bournemouth (4-2-3-1): Petrovic, Jimenez, Milosavljevic, Senesi, Truffert, Scott, Adams, Tavernier, Kluivert, Semenyo, Kroupi
Anything else catch the eye?
The data points heavily toward an open, high-chance game at the Etihad. Bournemouth have scored in 18 of their last 20 Premier League away matches, including against top-six sides, and their games on the road are consistently lively averaging 3.6 total goals with both teams scoring in 14 of those.
Despite sitting second in the table, their underlying process remains leaky: they rank 16th for xG ratio away (45.9%), 15th for shots-in-box ratio (41.4%), and have conceded eight big chances, the joint-most in the league with Burnley
Manchester City, meanwhile, continue to generate strong attacking numbers. They rank in the top three for xG ratio (61.6%), average over 12 shots in the box per match, and are among the league’s joint-highest scorers with 17 goals. City’s home games average close to three goals per match in 2025, and they have failed to score in only one of their last 20 at the Etihad.
Defensively, City’s control is strong but not flawless. They have already lost three league games this season and conceded in seven of their nine. Bournemouth’s pace and ability to transition quickly which is a key part of their eight-match unbeaten run means they are well equipped to test a City defence that allows more shots in transition than usual this year.
History supports the goals angle too. The last five league meetings between these sides have all produced over 2.5 goals, and both teams have scored in four of those. With City needing a reaction after the Villa defeat and Bournemouth in confident form, this shapes up as an open contest.
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