Liverpool host Crystal Palace in the Carabao Cup fourth round at Anfield on Wednesday looking to put an end to a difficult run of form and continue their pursuit of silverware. It’s a repeat of their Premier League meeting just a month ago, when Palace claimed a surprise 2-1 win at Selhurst Park.
Despite recent results, Liverpool’s underlying performance data remains strong. Arne Slot’s side sit second in the Premier League for xPTS (14.84), behind only Arsenal, and rank third for total xG (2.96), highlighting sustained attacking quality.
Their +0.76 xG differential per match reflects dominance in most contests, even if finishing and defensive lapses have cost them. Over their last six games in all competitions (W1-D0-L5), they have scored 10 and conceded 11, averaging more than 3.5 total goals per match.
At Anfield, they remain formidable going forward, averaging over 16 shots and 5.7 on target per home game, and scoring two or more in eight of their last nine. Slot’s rotation options are strong with Federico Chiesa, Rio Ngumoha and Alexis Mac Allister all pushing to start, while key midfielders could be rested ahead of a busy week.
Crystal Palace, under Oliver Glasner, have quietly built one of the league’s most effective processes. They rank third for xPTS (14.54) and 6th for total xG (3.07), with a solid balance of 1.80 xG for and 1.27 xGA. Palace have scored in 11 of their 13 games this season and rarely go away quietly with their quick transitions and set-piece threat remain key weapons.
With both sides carrying attacking intent and defensive vulnerabilities, this looks set to be a competitive, high-tempo tie under the lights at Anfield.
How the bookies view it: Hosts are clear favourites
Liverpool are clear favourites ahead of this tie. The hosts are priced at 8/13, giving them an implied win probability of around 62%. The draw at 15/4 translates to roughly 21%, while Crystal Palace at 9/2 implies about a 18% chance of victory.
Those prices reflect Liverpool’s superior xG process and home strength, even amid a recent run of mixed results.
In the goals markets, over 2.5 goals is 4/7, which carries an implied probability of 63%, while both teams to score at 4/6 equates to about 60%. Bookmakers clearly expect a lively, attacking contest with goals for both sides which is a view supported by the underlying data.
Head to Head: Palace been strong over recent meetings
Liverpool and Crystal Palace have faced each other 20 times across all competitions since 2017, and Liverpool hold the upper hand with 12 wins, five draws and three defeats. The fixtures have often been competitive, but rarely dull as 14 of those 20 matches saw both teams score or over 2.5 total goals, and the pattern suggests attacking games more often than not.
In recent years, though, Palace have found ways to frustrate Liverpool. They have lost only one of the last five meetings (W2-D2-L1), including a 2-1 home win in September and a 2-2 draw in the Community Shield in August. The Premier League clash at Selhurst Park earlier this season saw Palace edge Liverpool 2-1.
Historically, Liverpool have dominated this fixture at Anfield, winning eight of their last nine home games against Palace in all competitions. That includes emphatic wins such as the 7-0 victory in December 2020 and a 4-0 win in June 2020.
Players to watch: Sarr to score at Anfield
Ismaila Sarr may not start at Anfield, but if he does, he brings a remarkable record against Liverpool. The Palace winger has scored in each of his last three appearances against the Reds, and his direct pace has repeatedly troubled their defensive line.
This season, Sarr has made seven league appearances (611 minutes), scoring three goals and providing one assist, with a total xG of 3.3 and xAG of 0.4. His finishing efficiency is notable with three goals from just ten shots, with four on target, showing a strong conversion rate when chances fall his way.
He is averaging 87 touches per 90, and his involvement in possession remains consistent, completing 73% of passes with progressive carries in every match. Sarr also contributes to build-up play with shot-creating actions in six of seven appearances, and his take-on success rate (42%) reflects his willingness to drive at defenders.
Given Liverpool’s recent defensive trend conceding an average of 14.75 shots per game against Premier League opponents, Sarr’s pace on the counter could be a major weapon. If he starts, his record and underlying numbers make him a strong option in anytime goal scorer or 1+ shot on target markets.
Predicted line-ups
Liverpool (4-3-3): Woodman; Frimpong, Gomez, Van Dijk, Robertson; Endo, Mac Allister; Chiesa, Szoboszlai, Ngumoha; Ekitike
Crystal Palace (3-4-3): Benitez; Canvot, Lacroix, Guehi; Munoz Sosa; Hughes, Kamad; Esse; Pino, Mateta.
Anything else catch the eye?
The numbers and recent form point clearly towards both teams to score & over 2.5 goals as the standout angle for Liverpool vs Crystal Palace.
Liverpool’s last six matches in all competitions have produced 21 total goals with 10 scored and 11 conceded with both teams to score landing in five of those six. They continue to generate high attacking output, averaging 16.4 shots per game, 5.7 on target, and 2.96 total xG per match, the third-highest in the Premier League.
Their 1.10 xGA also shows they allow good-quality chances, which explains why opponents continue to find goals despite Liverpool’s dominance in possession.
At Anfield, Liverpool have scored in 31 of their last 32 games at Anfield in all competitions, averaging 2.41 goals per match across that stretch. Even with rotation, Slot has plenty of attacking options ensuring constant movement and creativity.
Crystal Palace’s numbers reinforce the bet. They sit third for xPTS (14.54) and sixth for total xG (3.07), producing 1.80 xG for per game and 1.27 xGA, suggesting their matches are more open than results imply.
Palace have scored in nine of 14 games this season and are one of the league’s most effective sides on the counter, with Yeremy Pino, Ismaila Sarr and Jean-Philippe Mateta combining for 17 shots on target and six big chances created between them.
The previous meeting between these sides finished 2-1 to Palace, with a combined xG of 5.06, and their attacking profiles have stayed consistent since. Liverpool’s volume and Palace’s threat in transition make goals at both ends the most logical play.
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