The friendly between Liverpool and AC Milan takes place this Saturday at Kai Tak Sports Park in Hong Kong, part of Liverpool’s Asia tour. It’s a high-profile fixture between two European heavyweights preparing for the new season.
Liverpool have already played two friendlies this summer. They beat Preston 3–1 in their opening match and followed it up with a convincing 5–0 win over Stoke behind closed doors. Darwin Nunez scored a first-half hat-trick in that game, while Florian Wirtz impressed on his debut. The early signs under Arne Slot are promising, with Liverpool sharp in possession, fluid in attack and already showing a level of fitness and intensity that suggests they’re ahead of schedule.
Milan have only played once so far, a 1–0 defeat to Arsenal in Singapore. They struggled to threaten in that match, registering just seven shots. The squad looks competitive on paper but is clearly behind in match rhythm. With several key players just returning to training and others yet to join the group, it’s been a disjointed start to pre-season.
Recent form and preparation favour Liverpool. They have scored eight goals in two games and look well-balanced with a mix of returning starters and new signings integrating quickly. Milan, by contrast, are still building sharpness and cohesion. While both sides are likely to rotate throughout the 90 minutes, Liverpool’s early momentum could give them an edge.
It may be a friendly, but with both teams looking to lay down a marker ahead of the new campaign, it promises to be a competitive and entertaining match.
How the bookies view it: No odds available
Head to Head: Liverpool hold 100% record
Liverpool have won all six of their last meetings with AC Milan, scoring 17 goals and conceding just five. The most recent clash was in September 2024 in the Champions League, where Liverpool won 3–1 in Milan with an xG of 3.1 to 0.6. That followed a 4–1 friendly win in 2022, and two group-stage victories in the 2021 Champions League (3–2 at Anfield, 2–1 in Milan).
Earlier, Liverpool beat Milan 2–0 in both the 2014 and 2016 International Champions Cup fixtures.
Across all six matches, Liverpool averaged 2.83 goals per game and never scored fewer than two. Milan, by contrast, only scored more than once once (in the 3–2 loss in 2021).
Players to watch: Gakpo to be a constant threat
Cody Gakpo looks a strong candidate for shots markets based on both his Champions League and Premier League output. In Europe last season, he made eight appearances (four starts) and registered 12 shots, seven of which were on target, averaging 2.93 shots and 1.71 shots on target per 90 minutes.
He took three or more shots in three of his four starts and hit the target in 5 of his 8 games. Domestically, he played 35 league matches, starting 23, and recorded 57 shots and 22 on target. That works out at 2.48 shots and 1.02 on target per 90. He took two or more shots in 18 of his 23 league starts and had at least one shot on target in 17.
With Milan still short of sharpness and conceding regular chances to wide players, Gakpo should see space to operate. Given his accuracy and consistency, backing him for two or three shots and at least one on target is a well-supported bet.
Predicted line-ups
Liverpool (4-3-3): Mamardashvili, Bradley, Van Dijk, Gomez, Kerkez, Endo, Gravenberch, Wirtz, Salah, Gakpo, Nunez
AC Milan (4-2-3-1): Maignan, Calabria, Tomori, Pavlovic, Hernandez, Fofana, Loftus-Cheek, Pulisic, Ricci, Leao, Morata
Anything else catch the eye?
Liverpool to win and over 1.5 goals is shaping up as a strong bet, based on attacking thresholds, defensive patterns, and shot metrics.
Across their last five preseason matches, Liverpool have averaged 20 shots per game, with nine on target, and have exceeded xG of 2.0 on each occasion. Against Stoke alone, they managed 24 shots, 11 on target, and unlocked an xG of 3.4, recording a comfortable 5–0 win. This shows not only quantity but quality as they have averaged 2.8 big chances per match, consistently producing clear scoring opportunities.
In contrast, AC Milan’s preseason has been subdued. They averaged just eight shots per game, with only three on target, generating an xG of under 1.0. In their only recent competitive game which was a 1–0 loss to Arsenal they managed just seven shots and failed to break the line enough to challenge Liverpool’s backline. Milan's defensive xGA of nearly 1.4 indicates susceptibility to sustained pressure.
Historically, these sides have met and produced 3+ goals in seven of their past 10 fixtures. Liverpool scored three or more in four of their last five face–offs, including a 3–1 away win at San Siro last September with an xG of 3.1.
Backing Liverpool to both win and deliver more than one goal taps into their recent clinical finishing and Milan’s defensive instability. Liverpool’s shot volume and big‑chance creation far outweigh Milan’s resistance, making this a sharp, evidence‑based wager.
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