Latvia enter the match on the back of a poor competitive run, winning just four of their last 15 matches, drawing three, and losing eight. They have scored only 13 goals while conceding 37 during this stretch, with their only wins—and clean sheets—coming against lower-ranked opponents: Andorra, the Faroe Islands (twice), and Armenia.
Their home form has also been patchy, with just seven wins in their last 20 games. In the Nations League, they struggled badly, finishing bottom of their League C group with a record of W1-D1-L4, managing just four goals in six games. As a result, they now face Gibraltar in a play-off to determine whether they will slip further down the UEFA rankings.
Albania, while inconsistent, come into this match with a stronger recent record. Their recent record is W7-D5-L7. Their Nations League campaign ended in disappointment as they finished bottom of their League B group, but the margins were fine—they were level on points with Georgia and just one behind Ukraine. Their record of W2-D1-L3 came in matches that averaged only 1.67 goals, reflecting a tendency for low-scoring encounters. They kept two clean sheets and failed to score in half of their group games, suggesting a solid defence but occasional struggles in attack.
Given the data, this match looks likely to follow a familiar pattern of low scoring and tight margins.
How the bookies view it: Little between the sides
Bookmakers currently make Albania slight favourites for this game against Latvia, pricing them at 41/40 to win. Latvia are outsiders at 29/10, while the draw is available at 9/4. The market expects a tight, low-scoring contest, with over 2.5 goals priced at 13/10 and both teams to score at 21/20—indicating limited confidence in either side producing a high-scoring performance.
Head to head: Stalemate
Latvia and Albania have faced each other five times in men's international football, with all five matches ending in draws. Two of those games ended 0-0, while the other three were lively scoring draws that produced a total of 12 goals, with each side netting six times. These evenly matched encounters include FIFA World Cup qualifiers, UEFA European Championship qualifiers, and friendly tournament games.
Players to watch: Manaj main threat for visitors
In Albania’s 3-0 win over Andorra, Rey Manaj delivered a standout performance, scoring twice and firmly establishing himself as the focal point of the Albanian attack. He registered six shots, with three on target, showcasing both volume and intent in front of goal. His sharp movement and composed finishing were central to breaking down the Andorran defence, and his brace was a clear reflection of the confidence he is currently playing with at international level.
In the most recent Nations League campaign, Manaj featured in two matches, logging a total of 161 minutes. During that span, he attempted five shots, with one on target, averaging a shot every 32 minutes. While he did not get on the scoresheet, those numbers reflect a striker consistently getting into shooting positions. As Albania prepare to face Latvia in a crucial World Cup qualifier, Manaj’s form and goal threat make him one of the key players to watch.
Predicted line-ups
Latvia (4-3-3): Steinbors; Jurkovskis, Cernomordijs, Dubra, Savalnieks; Tobers, Ciganiks, Saveljevs; Ikaunieks, Gutkovskis, Uldrikis
Albania (4-3-3): Strakosha; Hysaj, Djimsiti, Ismajli, Mitaj; Ramadani, Asllani, Bajrami; Asani, Manaj, Uzuni
Anything else catch the eye?
Latvia come into the match on a poor run of form. In the Nations League, they finished bottom of their League C group, scoring just 4 goals in six games and showing little attacking threat.
Their struggles at home have been particularly glaring. In their last nine home qualifiers for the European Championship or World Cup, Latvia have a record W2-D0-L7. Across those nine matches, they scored only nine goals, and those came against Armenia, Gibraltar, Turkey, and Montenegro—sides either below or only marginally above them in the rankings. Against stronger teams, Latvia have frequently failed to find the net.
Albania, while not prolific themselves, come into this fixture with a stronger overall profile. In the most recent Nations League campaign, their six matches averaged only 1.67 goals, with Albania scoring in just three of them and keeping two clean sheets.
Crucially, both teams to score has only landed in seven of Albania’s last 20 competitive games, underlining their tendency to be involved in low-scoring, one-sided contests. This stat, combined with Latvia’s scoring issues—especially at home—reinforces the value of backing both teams not to find the net.
With both teams favouring compact setups and struggling in the final third, a low-scoring game looks highly likely.
GambleAware